Covid 19 Vaccines - Should you received it or be forced to?

[Flexacon]

Flexacon,

What do you make of the stats below for the 2018-2019 flu season, versus the 2019-2020 flu season?

If masks, social distancing, lock-downs, etc, made a big difference, and given that normal seasonal influenza and Covid-19 virus particles are both roughly the same size in terms of micron length, wouldn't masks reduce the spread of the normal flu to a similar extent as it would reduce the spread of COVID?  Or do you feel differently about that?

What do you make of these figures, comparing the past two flu seasons?:

Coronavirus in 2020 didn't really take hold until late March. No one was wearing masks then. Also flu season pretty much ends around that time too.

The data you presented doesn't realy correlate to the period of mask wearing, social distancing etc. At most maybe 5%

Look at Australia. The nearly eliminated coronavirus, they also hardly have any flu during their flu season. The UK is also having much lower flu cases this winter.

Hard to say why though. Could be mask wearing/social distancing or it could be because there was a higher uptake of the flu vaccine. Could be because Australia has reduced cases of imported flu. Could be because in the UK a more dominant virus (sarscov2) has pushed flu to the back of the line. Toss a coin, no one really knows the real answer yet.

[Flexacon]

The rate at which Americans are overweight has been pretty constant over the past 60 years – 40%

What has drastically changed over that time is the obesity rate – tripling from 13 to 39 percent.   Throw in more heart disease, diabetes, and other ailments, and it’s no wonder so many folk are dying.

5% of those Americans counted as overweight would fall into the obesity category in most countries. America is more generous with it banding.

Also focusing on weight is still too simplistic. Visceral fat/waistline is a better indicator. Skinny fat/unhealthy is much more common now than in the past.

[Chubz]

Seriously I cannot believe how fucking stupid this cuntry is to even consider this vaccine!
I’ve been traveling all over the US while I can still fly b4 they mandate proof of vaxx. I was on American and those stupid girls kept walking the aisles mask checking, the guy in front of me got 3 strikes, all I know is the steward pulled his name up and from his seat/aisle and he was arguing with the crew as everyone was unloading, I didn’t stick around to hear his punishment. I got in my vehicle In O hare Chicago and this town is fucking DEAD!!!!!! Rip Merica, they are demolished us in the open, and people still think this vaccine is good and are willingly taking it??

[Matt]

Let's put COVID deaths into perspective, by comparing it to the expression "You have a better chance of being struck by lightning":

Canada averages over two million lightning strikes per year.  In Canada, 9 to 10 people are killed and 100 to 150 people are injured by lightning per year [data below], updated as of 2018-08-13.  As this is historical data, I have no reason to believe it significantly changed within the past two years.

Assuming these lightning strikes are spread equally over the population, since 82.8% of Canadians are under 65, that means between 83 and 124 Canadians under 65 get struck by lightning each year.  In reality, I would assume over 90% of all lightning strikes are among people under 65, as older people tend to stay indoors more.

According to the Public Health Agency of Canada, 297 Canadians under the age of 60 have died of COVID as of 2020-09-23.  Let's round this number up to 400 as a projected year-end tally - that number will not be far off.

Ok...so around 100 Canadians under 65 got struck by lightning this year [based on historical data], and 400 Canadians under 60 will end up dying from COVID by the end of the year...and I'm supposed to be scared of this virus?

Canada's age demographic data:

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/91-215-x/2018002/sec2-eng.htm

And while not exactly the same, the age cohorts compared above are close enough for me to use without feeling like I'm potatoing the math.

Attached are Canada's historical lightning strike data, as well as the mortality age demographic data from PHAC, cited above:

[Matt]

Does this comment about COVID work, or is it a potato?:

"If you are under 60, you have a better chance of being struck by lightning within the next five years than dying of COVID within the next year."

[Coach is Back!]

Let’s a vaccine for a glorified flu that has a 99.7% survival rate. We’ve had flu shots for what? 50+ years and we still......have the flu

[Matt]

Let’s a vaccine for a glorified flu that has a 99.7% survival rate. We’ve had flu shots for what? 50+ years and we still......have the flu

Exactly...it's also funny to me when people say COVID is worse than the flu, and "prove" that by claiming it is 7x as lethal, or whatever figure they use.

Seven times next to nothing is still...next to nothing.

Furthermore, we have a vaccine for the flu.  So flu deaths would be higher if we didn't have a vaccine, and would be much more comparable to COVID.  If a vaccine existed for neither, COVID would be, what, maybe 3x as lethal as the flu?

Again - so what?  So f*cking what?  We've shed $10 TRILLION in combined global economic output / addition of debt fighting a virus, and it's quite possible that for all that economic damage we've self-administered that it's done nothing whatsoever in stopping the spread of this virus.  Maybe it has - but since all the masks and social distancing did nothing to reduce normal flu deaths last year [with both virus particles being the same length, at around 12 microns], I have no reason to believe COVID deaths were significantly decreased.

There is something like 300x as much insect biomass on the planet compared to human biomass.  The human population keeps going up, as does our impact on the environment.  It was only a matter of time before the other living organisms we share the planet with decided to attack us - as we are the host taxing the planet the most.

To me, the bottom line is this:

Human beings are not the masters of nature that some think we are.

[Flexacon]

Does this comment about COVID work, or is it a potato?:

"If you are under 60, you have a better chance of being struck by lightning within the next five years than dying of COVID within the next year."

Yes, because you haven't factored in exponential growth if the virus was left unchecked in a dense and susceptible population.

Most people fail to understand exponential growth, but you can't use that excuse.

Also you're only looking at the under 60 population and your own risk. Those making the decisions aren't doing that. The situation is very different once you add in the rest of the population. You don't have to like or agree with it, but if you can understand that you might be able to stop potatoing.

[Chubz]

I'm not sure why the fuck I even post here, usually because im drinking! Bottom line the vaccine is here and you will take it period!!!!!! the VERY VERY VERY small few of us who do not take it will not be allowed into society in any way shape or form! I have zero clue how long it will take to get to this point, months, years? my guess very soon! So make sure you know haw to start a fire and live in the woods if you want to survive, LOL hahahahaha just kidding im being all stupid tin foil hat wackadoodle!!!!! It will be up toy you to decide if you want it or not, your body your choice, the gubment will protect you its all written in the constitution.

Hope this helps
Chubz

[Chubz]

POTATO

[AbrahamG]

Let’s a vaccine for a glorified flu that has a 99.7% survival rate. We’ve had flu shots for what? 50+ years and we still......have the flu

15.7 million cases
293,000 deaths
That comes out to 1.86%.  That's more like a 98.14 survival rate.  So if tire flipping had a 98% survival rate, that would mean 2% of your clients would die working out. 
 

[chaos]

15.7 million cases
293,000 deaths
That comes out to 1.86%.  That's more like a 98.14 survival rate.  So if tire flipping had a 98% survival rate, that would mean 2% of your clients would die working out. 
 

That number is a lie and you know it.
 

[AbrahamG]

That number is a lie and you know it.
 

No it isn't.
 

[Matt]

Coronavirus in 2020 didn't really take hold until late March. No one was wearing masks then. Also flu season pretty much ends around that time too.

The data you presented doesn't realy correlate to the period of mask wearing, social distancing etc. At most maybe 5%

Look at Australia. The nearly eliminated coronavirus, they also hardly have any flu during their flu season. The UK is also having much lower flu cases this winter.

Hard to say why though. Could be mask wearing/social distancing or it could be because there was a higher uptake of the flu vaccine. Could be because Australia has reduced cases of imported flu. Could be because in the UK a more dominant virus (sarscov2) has pushed flu to the back of the line. Toss a coin, no one really knows the real answer yet.

Out of curiosity, is something stopping you from running from office, where ever you live?

There are zero - precisely ZERO - politicians speaking about COVID in the [what is to me] clear/neutral mathematically accurate way that you are.  Zero!  And that's absolutely pathetic to me.  Not one politician is showing any signs of doing anything but peddling fear.

Is the ability to think critically really THAT rare?

I specifically sought you out to answer a few questions about COVID that I had because it looked to me that the way in which you interpret data and form conclusions is one involving critical thinking.  I was right.

I also find it astonishing how many people were commenting on COVID in the first weeks and months when we had no data to even analyze!  As you said regarding determining if masks and social distancing works - we will need an apples to apples time/seasonal comparison before we can conclusively make a determination one way or another.

My thoughts are that at first, we had reason to be worried about this virus, and think of it as potentially being Ebola in terms of mortality rate, but the common cold in terms of its transmission rate.

After three months, and that obviously turned out to be completely untrue, it was time to REEVALUATE, and stop acting like this is the bubonic plague, for cripes' sake.  Just one more thing...I'm not sure how old you are, but have you ever watched the show Cheers?

PS - I would say the flu/COVID may well be low, but is a little higher than 5%.

[chaos]

No it isn't.
 

Yes, it is.
 

[harmankardon1]

I assumed the second vaccine shot would be an adenovirus vector vaccine (Oxford/AZ). They have good data on that vaccine for under 55s, but it isn't as effective as the mRNA vaccines. The immune system launching a response to both the adenovirus and the spike protein seems to be what's making it less effective. I can see the logic in giving both and seeing what happens. Hopefully it goes somewhere.

TBH  I think vaccine wise they now have enough to move on. Pfizer vaccine for over 55s and the Oxford vaccine for under 55s who want it. The virus won't disappear completely, but it's more than enough for everything to get back to normal by late 2021. If better vaccines and therapeutics come along then that's even better. That applies to every country. Australia, US, UK, even China.

I've had a read over the AstraZeneca vaccine data, it's looking like a much more tolerable vaccine at this point.. The data is actually out for peer review also unlike Pfizer.

Yes the vector will always cause some issue, I am surprised by how good their data is. Fingers crossed things stay that way moving forward as I'm not really liking the mRNA vaccines at this point.

I think that assessment you made is pretty sensible and I hope to see something like that moving forward. I don't think widespread use of the mRNA vaccines in non vulnerable groups is the best idea given the unknowns and high reactivity.

[Matt]

15.7 million cases
293,000 deaths
That comes out to 1.86%.  That's more like a 98.14 survival rate.  So if tire flipping had a 98% survival rate, that would mean 2% of your clients would die working out. 
 

While you are right, 94% of the people who died had underlying health issues.  The average age of death is also 84.8.

Something to note: ~15% of common colds are coronaviruses.  I haven't ruled out the fact that we might just be being played here with one of the 200+ strains of the common cold.  Yep - there are over 200 known viruses that comprise what we known as "the common cold", so the easiest way for "the elite" to con the entire planet about a pandemic would be to discover a new cold [there is probably a new one discovered each year, given we already know of over 200 of them], call it "the coronavirus" [which it technically is], and scare the masses.

From Wiki:

"The common cold is a viral infection of the upper respiratory tract. The most commonly implicated virus is a rhinovirus (30–80%), a type of picornavirus with 99 known serotypes.  Other commonly implicated viruses include human coronaviruses (≈ 15%) [...]"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_cold#Viruses

Seriously, let's do the math:

- Coronavirus.
- Average age of death = 84.8 years old.
- Average person dying had 2-3 underlying health conditions.

Any of the 200+ common colds would have similar mortality figures.  Common colds DO kill seniors, and always have, and if we wanted to keep them on ventilators as their immune system attempts to beat their final cold, we could.

Here's a question:

If not for the TV, social media, or basically any other form of media, would you even NOTICE a pandemic is going on?

[AbrahamG]

While you are right, 94% of the people who died had underlying health issues.  The average age of death is also 84.8.

Something to note: ~15% of common colds are coronaviruses.  I haven't ruled out the fact that we might just be being played here with one of the 200+ strains of the common cold.  Yep - there are over 200 known viruses that comprise what we known as "the common cold", so the easiest way for "the elite" to con the entire planet about a pandemic would be to discover a new cold [there is probably a new one discovered each year, given we already know of over 200 of them], call it "the coronavirus" [which it technically is], and scare the masses.

From Wiki:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_cold#Viruses

Seriously, let's do the math:

- Coronavirus.
- Average age of death = 84.8 years old.
- Average person dying had 2-3 underlying health conditions.

Any of the 200+ common colds would have similar mortality figures.  Common colds DO kill seniors, and always have, and if we wanted to keep them on ventilators as their immune system attempts to beat their final cold, we could.

Here's a question:

If not for the TV, social media, or basically any other form of media, would you even NOTICE a pandemic is going on?

Pre-existing condition or not, covid at an absolute minimum was a nail in the coffin.  As for the common cold?  People with diabetes, high BP, etc get the common cold year after year and live long lives.  Not so much with covid.  There is no equivalence between covid-19 and the common cold.  Also, through June of 2019 there were 1.4 million deaths in the United states.  Through June of 2020 there were 2.4 million deaths.  Many more people have died this year vs last year.  I don't think we've had a huge uptick in plane crashes, car crashes, aids, cancer, etc. 

[Matt]

I've had a read over the AstraZeneca vaccine data, it's looking like a much more tolerable vaccine at this point.. The data is actually out for peer review also unlike Pfizer.

WTF? 

So Pfizer is immune from liability for any damage the COVID vaccine causes, AND their data is unavailable for peer review?

How on earth is it being rolled out if that's the case? 

[Flexacon]

I've had a read over the AstraZeneca vaccine data, it's looking like a much more tolerable vaccine at this point.. The data is actually out for peer review also unlike Pfizer.

Yes the vector will always cause some issue, I am surprised by how good their data is. Fingers crossed things stay that way moving forward as I'm not really liking the mRNA vaccines at this point.

I think that assessment you made is pretty sensible and I hope to see something like that moving forward. I don't think widespread use of the mRNA vaccines in non vulnerable groups is the best idea given the unknowns and high reactivity.

A 50% effective vaccine was the original goal, so AZ gone beyond expectations and is cheap to manufacture. The Russian vaccine is potentially even better. It uses a different vector for each jab. Not that they'll get any credit for it in the west.

The Pfizer documents that the EU were going to use to decide regulatory approval looks like it might have been accessed by hackers, so we might get to see it after all.

[Matt]

Pre-existing condition or not, covid at an absolute minimum was a nail in the coffin.  As for the common cold?  People with diabetes, high BP, etc get the common cold year after year and live long lives.  Not so much with covid.  There is no equivalence between covid-19 and the common cold.  Also, through June of 2019 there were 1.4 million deaths in the United states.  Through June of 2020 there were 2.4 million deaths.  Many more people have died this year vs last year.  I don't think we've had a huge uptick in plane crashes, car crashes, aids, cancer, etc.

The average age of a person dying with COVID is 84.8 with 2-3 separate comorbidities.

That's not either 84.8 or 2-3 separate comorbidities.  It's both.

So yes - people with diabetes are surviving COVID all the time.

I should point out - I'm really reaching here to compare COVID to a cold, but COVID is such a complete joke to me, that I don't feel the comparison is that inappropriate.  Comparing it to the normal seasonal influenza would be a better comparison...both are potentially deadly, but neither will generally kill young and healthy people.  All examples of young people dying of COVID have been cherry-picked.

Regarding excess deaths, according to the CDC, there were only 215,000 more deaths in the previous 12 months ending June of 2020 in the USA, compared to June of 2019 [3,038,000 in June/2020 versus 2,823,000 in June/2019].

That increase works out to 0.0655% of the total American population, or an increase of 10.76% compared to the previous year's deaths [using the 12-month ending number].

Ok - so 11% more people are dying.  How many funerals have you been in, in your life?

I'm 38, and I have been to five.  I couldn't go to the funeral of my father's parents because they live out of province, and I can think of two people whose funerals I could have gone to, but had reasons not to [one was also out of province].

Let's just say at MOST, I should have been to 10 funerals in my life.  An 11% increase in deaths would mean that I should have gone to 11.

Put another way - we're not going to notice an 11% increase in deaths.  That's 215,000 additional deaths out of 328,200,000 people in the USA.  That's 1 in 1,527.  Most of us don't even personally know 1,527 people.  I would think the average person might personally know something like 300 people.

Now...I should point out that it's rather cold for me to say that no one would notice an 11% increase in deaths.  I don't want to come across as uncaring, but it's not like fighting COVID has come at no cost - in Canada, we're spending $1 BILLION daily to fight COVID.  That money could be used to give 10,000 Canadians lifesaving procedures that cost $100,000 each.  That money could build four state-of-the-art hospitals costing $250 MILLION per hospital.

Instead, what's happening?  The 2,604 global billionaires have increased their net wealth by $1 TRILLION in the second greatest recession in history since The Great Depression.  And to me - that's depressing.

You do have me convinced that Covid-19 exists though.  At this point, I only barely have enough actual data to establish that.

I would think that in a "global pandemic" people might...you know...notice there is one, or something [JMO].

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/provisional-tables.htm

[Matt]

A 50% effective vaccine was the original goal, so AZ gone beyond expectations and is cheap to manufacture. The Russian vaccine is potentially even better. It use a different vector for each jab. Not that they'll get any credit for it in the west.

The Pfizer documents that the EU were going to use to decide regulatory approval looks like it might have been accessed by hackers, so we might get to see it after all.

Regarding Russia, check this article out:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-vaccine-covid-19-coronavirus-chris-brown-1.5819331

Russia says its COVID vaccine is 95% effective. So why is there still Western resistance to it?

wut

"Russia says?"

LMAO!  Since when do we question why the West doesn't consider Russian standards to be acceptable?  Here - since mainstream media is looking more and more like The Onion every day, I'll produce a headline:

Somalia says its COVID vaccine is 95% effective. So why is there still Western resistance to it?

Yeah, gee...what could be the problem there? 

[AbrahamG]

2019 = 22,000 flu deaths
2020 = 298,000 covid deaths

Shitty comparison

[Flexacon]

My thoughts are that at first, we had reason to be worried about this virus, and think of it as potentially being Ebola in terms of mortality rate, but the common cold in terms of its transmission rate.

That's actually pretty close to how I saw it at the beginning, but still not anywhere near Ebola deadly.

I could never bring myself to kiss ass so would never make it as a politician. I'm just happy making good money, no bosses watching over me and living an easy low stress life. Yes I've watched Cheers..

[Matt]

2019 = 22,000 flu deaths
2020 = 298,000 covid deaths

Shitty comparison

Your COVID death statistic is fairly close to accurate - the number I pulled up, updated within the past 24 hours, says 293,000.  As for your flu statistic...yes, 22,000 is [close enough to] the lowest estimated death count for the normal flu.  But I think you're cherry-picking a little.

I'd even go so far as to say that your number is, yes, a bit FISHY. 

As per the normal flu death figures for 2018-2019 and 2019-2020, posted by myself and Primemuscle, here they are again:

Final 2019/20 Flu Numbers

Between October 1, 2019 and April 4, 2020, the flu resulted in:

39 to 56 million illnesses
410,000 to 740,000 hospitalizations
24,000 to 62,000 deaths
195 pediatric deaths

https://hive.rochesterregional.org/2020/01/Flu-season-2020

October 1, 2018–April 30, 2019, the flu resulted in:

37.4 million to 42.9 million illnesses
531,000 to 647,000 hospitalizations
36,400 to 61,200 deaths in the United States.
116 pediatric deaths

Also, 17.3 million–20.1 million medical visits.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/68/wr/mm6824a3.htm

Let's produce mean figures for each season using the range given by the CDC, year ending:

2019: 43,000
2020: 48,800

Now let's produce a mean figure for both years combined: 45,900.

That's around double the figure you cited, and I don't think it's much of a stretch to say that 100,000 people would die of the normal seasonal influenza if not for the fact that we have a vaccine for it.

That brings us to 100K flu deaths versus 300K Covid-19 deaths, with the only assumption I'm making here being that we'd see around double the number of flu deaths without a vaccine.  Am I assuming too much by saying that?  To me, that does not seem to be an unreasonable assumption.

Do you have thoughts on that, AbrahamG?  I don't think anything I did above is THAT much of a stretch...is it?

During the initial lockdown/hysteria phase of the pandemic, I just sat at home watching YouTube videos and reading Getbig threads [I rent houses for a living].  When I finally started looking at the mortality data, I came to the conclusion that COVID is worse than the flu - but not by much.  I called it "Flu 3.0" [to denote that it's probably around 3x as lethal as the flu - "Flu 3x" would be a more accurate name, but I thought "Flu 3.0" sounded better].

I added one qualifier: COVID mortality as a function of age takes an even steeper curve than the flu, making it an even more geriatric disease.  Both are geriatric diseases - but COVID is an even more geriatric disease.

So OK - we have a flu that is 3x as deadly as the normal flu, with no working vaccine [yet].

Canada's deficit spending is currently $1 BILLION daily, and other Western nations are at similar levels.  Total global economic damage is at least 3x that of the 2008 global economic collapse.

Was that economic cost worth it?

Feel free to correct any of my figures, challenge any of my assumptions, present any new data, or give me an angle that I may have missed.  I'm here to learn, and I've learned more in a day reading your posts than I could from watching CNN for a month.

I'm open-minded about this [and about everything], even though I may not seem like I am.