I'll preface this again by saying that I don't think it's right for one country to invade another etc. (Otherwise people get upset).
But, if I were in Putin's shoes I wouldn't give up any territory. He doesn't seem to be losing much by keeping the land he's conquered already and continuing the status quo. The West is hemorrhaging money just to keep Ukraine alive. We exchange expensive drones, missiles, and Ukranian and western lives for Russian, Chechen, and North Korean lives. I think the stalemate favors him.
I'm not an expert or an insider, just a YT watcher and article reader, but to me Putin has said all along what Russia demands, and although one republican senator just said Putin reneges on all his promises... I don't really see where that's the case.
Now from what I hear and read Trump's team is presenting Putin with Kellog's plan, and it doesn't address the "root causes" Putin keeps talking about, there's no way that is even close to being acceptable to Putin/Russia; one way to interpret this is that Trump's team doesn't even expect Putin to accept those terms and this is all done in bad faith, they know it's a fail.
Witkoff flies to Moscow this week to present this ‘pig’s ear’ of a plan to Putin – seeking his consent. The Europeans and Ukrainians are set to meet next Wednesday in London to give their riposte to Trump.
What’s next? Most obviously, the Kellogg Plan will not ‘fly’. Russia will not accept it, and likely Zelensky will not either, (though the Europeans will work to persuade him – hoping to ‘wrong-foot Moscow’ by presenting Russia as the essential ‘spoiler’). Reportedly, Zelensky already has rejected the Crimea provision.
Is Trump really going to wash his hands of Ukraine? Doubtful, given that the U.S. neo-conservative institutional leadership will tell Trump that to do so, would weaken America’s ‘peace through strength’ narrative. Trump may adopt supporting Ukraine ‘on a low flame’ posture, whilst declaring the ‘war was never his’ – as he seeks a ‘win’ on the business front with Russia.
Gotta get a fake "win" somehow...