Jobs report last week said jobs are at an all time high. They are going to raise interest rates more to combat what they are describing as decades of inflationary pressure.
Real estate has to come crashing soon. Real estate agents are still marketing properties at 2020 levels, then the appraisal is done and banks reject lending based on the appraisal.
US unemployment got an uptick to 3.6%. The Fed is targeting 4.5%. We need to see UE rise across consecutive months to ensure a trend is established. Fed will raise rates along with rising UE which makes it worse of course.
Nein! There is fuck all supply of property available for sale and occupation.
1) fix interest mortgages are holding and not selling = no rush for exits
2) largest equity of home owners in decade = majority are flush with equity and comfortable
3) average build time went from 6mths to 18mths = supply is drip Fed to market = no excess supply
A property cool-down, yes, but only from areas that have boomed 50%+ which means the pullback is still well ahead of 2020 pandemic price. Commodity price inflation and lack of labour is what floats property prices. Average Joe will be utterly wrecked whilst yelling ‘but but but but it can’t!’.
FWIW I picked the inflation play when the pandemic hit and took max risk on property which would make your eyeballs bleed. I picked the first growth price for the next sale in my estate to the dollar (nobody believed me when I said it in advance). I gave my brother in law his house value for 2021 and 2022 a year in advance, even when I got 2021 right and gave him 2022 nobody believed me. I got the land sale prices right in my estate when the auction happened and again, nobody believed me.
The first real test is IR peak. I have 5.5% May. If I’m ballpark right then the strategy is still correct and my price guide continues.
