Hi guys, just thought i would contribute my own thoughts on this as i have been mildly excited about this one since it was announced.
First and foremost, and i know this will irritate a vast majority of posters, but i do not buy into the Overeem hype as him being the worlds best. I agree that his striking is premier and he probably has a half decent ground game, but how he manages to pass a steroid test is beyond me. He has most of the tools but there are people out there who are always better - regardless of the margin, theyre still better. If he can maintain the standing position and take the center he is going to be very hard to beat.
Fedor's prime has come and gone in the blink of an eye, he maintained his mystique by fighting lesser opponents in his later years although he is once again stepping up to the plate. Age affects us all differently, do you really think Nog would have lost to Mir by any means in his prime? I think not even close. Whilst Fedor should have demolished Werdum he made unaccustomed mistakes in the guard against a man he should have recognised as world class in that position and he was caught.
Josh Barnett is the dark horse for me, his skills are probably still there but how will he perform come fight night - and if he is clean what effect will it have on his ability to control people? I think he will have a good showing, win or lose, but the big question is - will he be licensed to compete and then complete the tournament?
Werdum is in a position hes never found himself, and he needs to prove the Fedor win wasnt a fluke. The big problem is that he already stated that Fedor is the best and should have / will beat him regardless of a fluke. What does that say about confidence - he needs to realise hes now the big target aside from Overeem.
Arlovski, Rogers and Kharitonov are there to make up the numbers, i dont see any of them doing any real damage to the division but i think Sergei will bury Andrei. Silva however has always been a standout for me, ive followed him since his debut and was very shocked when Pele beat him - even more so with the Werdum fight. If he wasnt fighting Fedor first i would pick him for the final, i think he is excellent (not everyone agrees as its all down to personal taste) but far from world number 1.
Overall winner - Fedor (time to learn from past mistakes, stand up and be counted again)