Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!

[gib]

Quote from: Mr Anabolic on November 13, 2013, 05:11:42 PM - (Back when the Bitcoin price $401, or when you could buy 100000 Satoshies for just 41 cents.)

"It's a scam, a fad, a bubble, a trading vehicle.  Might as well buy some penny stocks... at least they trade on a legit exchange.

Would not be surprised if bitcon was created by TPTB to trick as many as possible into accepting an electronic fiat currency... 100% trackable and controllable.  Don't believe all the encryption security nonsense.

Look at a daily bitcoin chart... totally parabolic.  The next crash will be glorious."

Poor old Mr Anabolic.  The stubbornly and steadfastly failed to acknowledge the future, much like a goat repeatedly bashing its head against a wall, instead of simply taking a few steps sideways to walk around it. It was all so simply and clearly laid our for him by others. There are many lessons in life, and in business, that we can learn from what happened here on his journey to eventual acceptance that he was wrong, (which will end with him making a public apology here, and with him purchasing some Bitcoin himself.)
 
Oh, and $27,000.

*still super cheap - just USD 27 cents for 1000 Satoshies!

[gib]

Mr Anabolic, Mayday and others. Below is a great video that touches on the various topics and concepts you guys have been debating. Well worth the listen from beginning to end. Super important that we understand what is happening and what lies ahead.

To Mr A specifically. Once you have listened, I challenge you come back here and post any questions, whether about macroeconomic trends, or BTC specifically.

As fellow Getbiggers we are all here to help each other grow (and that means not just physically, but mentally and financially also).

[gib]

For that to happen they require gold to start ramping. For gold to start ramping, they really need to start ramping inflation.

Here is a quick analysis of mine while i have a coffee. I use data tables to investigate outcomes which is what i do very well in my job. This is why i get shit correct and why people who take 2 seconds to draw a line and then conclude an outcome are 99% wrong most of the time.

The below also outlines how quickly the numbers go upwards but you need to remember each year it's the same energy percentage. If you position yourself today, you will be laughing by 2025.


Gold spot 1,889 and market cap is 11.5T   /   BTC spot is 32,200 and market cap is 0.59T

Gold up 28% - underperformed due to deflation and lack of inflationary monetary policy
BTC up 300%

So lets average gold growth at 25% each year from end of 2020 to 2025. This is a piss poor result from Gold and a horrible outcome for all of us!!
2020 - 1,889 / 2,361 / 2,951 / 3,689 / 4,611 / 5,764
Gold market cap 2020 11.5T / 14.4T / 18.0T / 22.5T / 28.1T / 35.1T
**So in a horrible scenario and inline with monetary policy today, we have the price of gold tripling and a gold market cap around 35.1T.

Therefore for 2021 a worst case gold price is $2,361 with a market cap around 14.4T.

BTC is currently 4% of the gold market. If gold plays out like above and you expect a 250k price, that means a BTC 5.25T market cap / 36% of the entire gold market. No way is that going to happen in 1 year.


Ok so lets look at gold again and start mid way through 1976 where gold bottomed at $100 and follow through to 1980. I will use prices that are highs (not outliers) during the years.
1976 - 100
1977 - 160 / 60.48 / 60%
1978 - 235 / 74.52 / 46%
1979 - 560 / 325 / 138%
1980 - 750 / 190 / 35%
Total gain - 650 / 650%

Lets use the 1976-1980 historic movements (arguably a less severe scenario than what we face total) and assume a 60% upwards move in gold in 2021 and go from there:
Year      gold spot   mkt cap    BTC spot   mkt cap
2020 - 1,889   / cap 11.5T       29.7k / cap 0.55T
2021 - 3,022  / cap 18.4T        47.5k / cap 0.88T 
2022 - 4,412  / cap 26.9T        69.3k / cap 1.3T
2023 - 10,502 / cap 63.9T       165k / cap 3.1T
2024 - 14,073 / cap 85.7T       212k / cap 4.1T

Gain - 12,184 / cap 74T           182k  / cap 3.55T
           645%                         


So there you have it using actual historic monetary/gold plays and overlaying with today's scenario meaning you get a very real outcome and not something from Mars. Personally i think gold will blow way past that level and will shock people.

Now that we have a future gold outlook which is realistic. You can then play with the BTC ratio to gold over time.
Start of 2020 BTC market cap was 1.8%
End of 2020 BTC market cap was 4.8%
Variance +3%

So lets assume 2021 adds another 3% to the ratio to wind up at 7.8% ratio to the gold market cap up from 4.8%.
2020 - 29.6k
2021 - 77.2k  / 1.4T market cap  up from 0.56T today.
**this looks more realistic to me for a 2021 outcome**

Now lets assume we continue increasing the ratio by 3% each year from 2021 onwards:
2020 - 29.6k  4.8%
2021 - 77.2k  7.8%
2022 - 156k   10.8%
2023 - 474k    13.8%
2024 - 774k    16.8%   market cap 14.3T

These last tables should really show you that it is incredibly realistic to get the values of both gold and BTC right up there in the coming years.

I was actually doing some similar calculations in my head a few nights ago!

I would add a few comments. In terms of money moving from Gold into BTC, and how this impacts BTC's price, its of course not as simple as money stored in gold moving to BTC. There will be many sources of money coming into BTC also, other than being converted from gold.

The Gold vs BTC market-cap ratio is going to be really interesting to watch. Will be fascinating to see the changes in global dynamics and in the financial system as BTC's market cap approaches parity with gold. And also to see if gold's value actually declines as BTC's rises, or whether gold still increases albeit at a much slower rate then BTC.

On a related note, at the physical gold trading exchange that I use in one of the countries where I reside (eg to buy and store physical gold), they now quote gold in BTC (among other international currencies), offer customers a gold to BTC conversion service, and also accept payment for gold in BTC. To me this really shows they "get it" and are preparing for the future. I expect this will only become more common at gold trading shops globally.

[Mayday]

Mr Anabolic, Mayday and others. Below is a great video that touches on the various topics and concepts you guys have been debating. Well worth the listen from beginning to end. Super important that we understand what is happening and what lies ahead.

I have listened to Saylor before and like with most speakers, there is only portions i agree with.

I tend to follow the gold and money supply speakers because they generally work off historical moments. BTC speakers tend to disregard that stuff which is what makes their claims questionable.

[IroNat]

Don't get caught with the hot potato.

[El Diablo Blanco]

Fucking Bitcoin.  I had people telling me to buy some at $1.50  and I never did. Fucking aye man.  In reality I don’t think I would have held on until now. Probably would have sold at $10k a while ago.  Still an awesome return if I bought into it. Knowing my luck I would have bought $10k worth and lose the thumb drive.

[Mayday]

I was actually doing some similar calculations in my head a few nights ago!

I would add a few comments. In terms of money moving from Gold into BTC, and how this impacts BTC's price, its of course not as simply as money stored in gold moving to BTC. There will be many sources of money coming into BTC also, other than being converted from gold.

The Gold vs BTC market-cap ratio is going to be really interesting to watch. Will be fascinating to see the changes in global dynamics and in the financial system as BTC's market cap approaches parity with gold. And also to see if gold's value actually declines as BTC's rises, or whether gold still increases albeit at a much slower rate then BTC.

Well i have done it for you now

A vital part in my example is that during that same 1976 to 1980 period consumer inflation went up only 50%....... 

Gold 650%
CPI 50%

The reason for this is because money follows the wealth gap where the wealthiest 5% own 95% meaning inflation follows the same trend.

In a ratio for percentage growth of Gold to CPI, the growth from gold took 92% and the CPI took 8%. Magic huh.

This is why when people see the Dow Jones, Gold, the Trillions in QE they all say OMFG my hamburger is going to cost 500 bucks are entirely wrong time and time again. The inflation that hits our everyday items is actually very low it is just that we feel it more because our incomes/wealth are also very low in comparison to the wealthy.

[Mayday]

Crazy mofos buying in at $34,100 LOL

Eject eject eject !!!

[gib]

Crazy mofos buying in at $34,100 LOL

Eject eject eject !!!

Its interesting to see what is going on. My contacts in Asia and in the US who are in banking and private wealth tell me they see a wall of institutional money coming into BTC in Q1-Q2 of 2021. Once these institutions are in, they will open up and give access to retail investors via simple platforms (eg EFTs, investment funds, payment systems, credit cards, and via retail bank accounts and stock broking accounts, etc). What we are seeing now, is more sophisticated investors who are front-running what they will see a huge wall of money coming into BTC this year with perfectly scarcity assured and ever increasing demand. During certain times of BTC's evolution we will see almost zero selling demand and strong buying demand, and at times like that strong upwards movements in price.

Bankers are all still on holiday, and will be looking to allocate once they are back to work later this month...

[gib]

 
Quote from: Mr Anabolic on March 17, 2014, 03:13:27 PM (back when Bitcoin price was just $589 per coin, or 58.9 cents for 100,000 Satoshies).

"Bitcoin is so 2013.

The bitcoin bubble has popped.

It's over."

[Mayday]

Its interesting to see what is going on. My contacts in Asia and in the US who are in banking and private wealth tell me they see a wall of institutional money coming into BTC in Q1-Q2 of 2021. Once these institutions are in, they will open up and give access to retail investors via simple platforms (eg EFTs, investment funds, payment systems, credit cards, and via retail bank accounts and stock broking accounts, etc).

This is trading movements though.

We are in a 7 day parabolic window and today is day 7.

I’m watching the charts right now. It’s already had a huge 10% dump and then bounced back above 34k. It’s closing in fast! Just you wait.....

[Humble Narcissist]

Crazy mofos buying in at $34,100 LOL

Eject eject eject !!!

  No shit.  Buy high sell low.  Haha

[obsidian]

Mr Anabolic, Mayday and others. Below is a great video that touches on the various topics and concepts you guys have been debating. Well worth the listen from beginning to end. Super important that we understand what is happening and what lies ahead.

To Mr A specifically. Once you have listened, I challenge you come back here and post any questions, whether about macroeconomic trends, or BTC specifically.

As fellow Getbiggers we are all here to help each other grow (and that means not just physically, but mentally and financially also).

I watched this video. Very informative and he is a smart dude! Interesting way to look at things! Thanks for posting!

I am optimistic that we might see:

1 BTC = $500,000
1 ETH = $75,000

There's 100 million Satoshi's in 1 BTC.
There' 1 billion GWEI's in 1 ETH.

Also watch Cardano.

I think BTC and ETH are the two main coins that will be safe to invest in. Both have been deemed to not be securities by the SEC. Both have huge upward potential. I will diversify into BTC once ETH catches up. I believe it will, it is only a matter of time.

BTC has started off 2021 with a bang. ETH is also going up nicely, not quite as much as BTC but I think that might change. It has already blasted through $800. The ATH of $1392 could be smashed in the next few months I think.

[IroNat]

[FitnessFrenzy]

$ 34,133.46

[gib]

There are 2 ironies I cannot but help point out about this song.

The first irony, is that the song is about poker. And poker, for those of use who understand it, is ultimately a game of skill (not luck). Over time, all players are dealt the same amount of luck, but the better player (the person who best knows what do with the hands he is dealt) will always win over time. So its ironic that a song called "the gambler" is actually about poker (which is a game of investing).

The second irony, is that Mr A posted this song many months back, when a whole Bitcoin was only around 6.8K per coin (or just USD 68 cents for 10,000 Satoshies...)

[hardgainerj]

I'll buy some when it crashes again

[affeman]

I'll buy some when it crashes again

It won't. Actually, we're just witnessing the last moments when average Joe could potentially still get it.

[hardgainerj]

It won't. Actually, we're just witnessing the last moments when average Joe could potentially still get it.

I understand the role bitcoin has in electronic transaction but I don't see it replacing the dollar for example as of right now

[polychronopolous]

Colombian Watchdog Says Companies Can Convert Capital to Bitcoin

 Big American companies like MicroStrategy have made the headlines this year with their bitcoin (BTC)-buying policies, but companies in Colombia may be set to follow suit – after a corporate watchdog in the nation green-lighted the practice of holding capital reserves in crypto.

In an official notice, the Superintendency of Corporations (Superintendencia de Sociedades), the nation’s corporations regulator explained that following a consultation, firms in Colombia are now legally permitted to use their capital to buy cryptoassets such as bitcoin (the only token explicitly named in the document) – so long as they abide by regulations outlined in the existing commercial code.

The watchdog added that providing the tokens companies bought could qualify as “intangible assets,” and “meet criteria that makes them recognizable on inventories as intangible,” firms were now free to take the crypto plunge.

The ruling is a major turnaround for the watchdog, which in early 2018 was still warning companies of the dangers of crypto investment, opining that tokens were too “volatile” to qualify as assets.

However, the new document contains a number of warnings about crypto, showing that the Superintendency has not yet altogether abandoned its previous position, writing that crypto “is not money or legal tender,” and cannot be used “as a form of payment.”

The watchdog also warned that no central bank or international monetary organization had recognized crypto as a form of money, and that tokens were in no way to be considered as a substitute for cash.

Meanwhile, as reported, the Colombian government has opened applications for companies wishing to trial crypto transactions in a new regulatory sandbox.

 https://cryptonews.com/news/colombian-watchdog-says-companies-can-convert-capital-to-bit-8778.htm

[obsidian]

Ethereum up 26% as of right now @ $974!

Bitcoin up 5.6% @ $33,520.

Ethereum has some catching up to do. I think eventually Ethereum's market cap will exceed Bitcoin's. In 2017/2018  it came close to Bitcoin's cap.

The price of BTC will probably always be higher because of the smalller supply of BTC.

[obsidian]

I'd like to see a ratio of 1:10 between BTC and ETH. That's when I'll convert some ETH to BTC. But I will be holding ETH for sure long term.

Big disappointments at the moment is MIOTA and XRP (because of SEC case). Not sure if XRP is dead though - we'll see what happens there. Anyone buying into those two currently? Or ADA?

[Mayday]

It won't. Actually, we're just witnessing the last moments when average Joe could potentially still get it.

I just exited my position on BTC.

Chat rooms are exploding with bullish new buyers. Lots of buyers for XRP..... you know, the one being delisted en masse from exchanges mid January.....

The charts were already showing signs of a pullback before these people bought in.

I had a reasonably sized position and I sold in 6 lots briefly eating up open orders and 2 seconds after the price bumped up! Selling is the new bullish?

It got whacked hard early yesterday then rebounded. I saw a notification of USD98M moving from an unknown wallet onto an exchange......

[Mayday]

I'd like to see a ratio of 1:10 between BTC and ETH. That's when I'll convert some ETH to BTC. But I will be holding ETH for sure long term.

Big disappointments at the moment is MIOTA and XRP (because of SEC case). Not sure if XRP is dead though - we'll see what happens there. Anyone buying into those two currently? Or ADA?

I wanted to stay in ETH but BTC makes me nervous right now. I can’t see BTC taking a dump and ETH not going along with it.

I’ll be buying ETH on the rebound however.

*ETH currently 0.99k apparently has wind for 1.2k and onto 1.4K...... gunna be an absolute bloodbath for people very soon.

[Theoak*]

 I think eventually Ethereum's market cap will exceed Bitcoin's.

Absolutely not.