Crypto market cap would probably need to double for a 100k BTC. 2 trillion to enter the market in 6 weeks? Zero chance. 1 trillion, Very unlikely.
Wall street crashing will send it pretty close
It isn't trillion of cash that enters the market to float the price because the mkt cap is a shitty calculation of the last highest price someone paid then applying that to every person who purchased before them.
The derivatives are 14x the size of spot which tells you the kind of leverage getting involved and why the price goes bananas. You are across this yourself as you gave me info on the hedge funds.
Lets pretend for a moment that it's going to go bananas and what it would look like. I think i can create a scenario that satisfies both the universe but also the skeptics and most likely disappoints the bulls (which is what we need in order for it to be real world).
I suggested the 'peak' of April was a parabolic run cut in half. Supporting data is on chain whales selling very hard into the FOMO buy wall from March onwards. I suggest a peak of 130k is probably what it should have been because the universe likes multiples.
I can validate 130k by looking at market pullbacks after parabolic peaks. The average is 75% which would give a bottom around 32k. We had 64.5k and a bottom of 28k which puts us at 56% or so. The gap between the 2 is almost half of the 56% which also marries back to the 130k number.
Then look at seasonality. I went through the main peaks and we can liken our current model to 2013 the most. 2013 spiked in Feb-Mar-Apr whereas this year we mostly did Mar-Apr-May but one could suggest the delay was because of the parabolic move being cut in half it extended the timeframe.
We are moving very quickly. Explosive up and explosive down, we can assume explosive recovery also so even if we are a month later in peak to 2013 we could peak earlier or the same due to current speed.
When it comes to price targets we can assume history repeats meaning all future price targets are halved for this year and most likely more brutally halved onwards as people learn more and front run. If we use a target of 220k and apply the same 50% reduction is provides us a target of 110k target if things were to rally at year end.
The assumption is Nov-Dec peak of 110k which marries up with a chopped down parabolic run and seasonality.
FWIW i am 50k in shitbag positions. Mostly Doge lol.
I have not yet entered my main holdings. We are at critical levels atm that we need to go above in order to validate we are back in a bull market.
