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Getbig Main Boards => Gossip & Opinions => Topic started by: Princess L on March 26, 2020, 03:37:27 PM

Title: Coronavirus - Model was wrong and drastically downgrades projections
Post by: Princess L on March 26, 2020, 03:37:27 PM
https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-behind-highly-cited-coronavirus-model-admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massively downgraded projection of the potential death toll on Wednesday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: SOMEPARTS on March 26, 2020, 03:40:31 PM
Yep, called it...as soon as they pass that multi-trillion dollar garbage bill we start "winning the war" against this very, very deadly virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Dave D on March 26, 2020, 03:42:00 PM
https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-behind-highly-cited-coronavirus-model-admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massively downgraded projection of the potential death toll on Wednesday.


How many millions have to die before we realize these doctors test their theories multiple times before governments take their thoughts into consideration?

This doctor wasn’t alone right? An individual was able to create all this panic?
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Princess L on March 26, 2020, 03:52:58 PM
How many millions have to die before we realize these doctors test their theories multiple times before governments take their thoughts into consideration?

This doctor wasn’t alone right? An individual was able to create all this panic?

YES

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday. Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve. Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000.

https://www.lucianne.com/2020/03/26/epidemiologist_behind_highly-cited_brcoronavirus_model_admits_he_was_wrongbr_drastically_revises_model_30431.html

Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Princess L on March 26, 2020, 03:54:48 PM

Trump may end up STILL being 'spot on' when he said this would be like the flu.

That's gonna be fun to watch.   ;D ;D ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Flexacon on March 26, 2020, 04:12:46 PM
https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-behind-highly-cited-coronavirus-model-admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massively downgraded projection of the potential death toll on Wednesday.


This has nothing to do with his model being wrong. The 500,000 UK deaths and 2.2 million US deaths were assuming worst case scenarios if no action were taken. Action however has been taken so now you add those to the model, plus any other new data.

No offence, but you need to read and understand both papers before commenting on this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: oldschoolfan on March 26, 2020, 04:16:58 PM
what simply blows my mind is, these media cock roaches , do not talk about how many people in the same  time frame have dies from flue,and other shit. i bet the numbers are much higher.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Dave D on March 26, 2020, 04:19:12 PM
This has nothing to do with his model being wrong. The 500,000 UK deaths and 2.2 million US deaths were assuming worst case scenarios if no action were taken. Action however has been taken so now you add those to the model, plus any other new data.

No offence, but you need to read and understand both papers before commenting on this.

Wait so he didn’t admit he was wrong?

He’s a hero for getting the governments to take action?

The media is lying but now they’re blaming Dr. Ferguson?
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Mayday on March 26, 2020, 04:19:18 PM
Thankyou for posting that.

Im struggling to believe we shut down the globe on a glitch.....  so what gives?
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Al Doggity on March 26, 2020, 04:19:40 PM
YES

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday. Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve. Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000.

https://www.lucianne.com/2020/03/26/epidemiologist_behind_highly-cited_brcoronavirus_model_admits_he_was_wrongbr_drastically_revises_model_30431.html



Note bolded. He made several predictions based on different courses of action in that paper.

Whole thing can be found here:
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

If this backtracking is set off your tin hat sensors, then you should check out page 15.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Dave D on March 26, 2020, 04:24:50 PM
Note bolded. He made several predictions based on different courses of action in that paper.

Whole thing can be found here:
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

If this backtracking is set off your tin hat sensors, then you should check out page 15.

Why is the media publishing misleading articles?

The headline clearly states he drastically reduced his model, if his original projections included results based or action/no action why are they misleading the public?
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Flexacon on March 26, 2020, 04:28:39 PM
Wait so he didn’t admit he was wrong?

He’s a hero for getting the governments to take action?

The media is lying but now they’re blaming Dr. Ferguson?

He admitted he was wrong with the assumed rate of infection. It's actually higher now than in his model so if anything social distancing and lockdown measures needed to happen earlier.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: IroNat on March 26, 2020, 04:37:38 PM
This has nothing to do with his model being wrong. The 500,000 UK deaths and 2.2 million US deaths were assuming worst case scenarios if no action were taken. Action however has been taken so now you add those to the model, plus any other new data.

No offence, but you need to read and understand both papers before commenting on this.


His projection was based on incorrect data.

>

"After just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson is presenting drastically downgraded estimates, crediting lockdown measures, but also revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured.

Ferguson explained, “I should admit, we’ve always been sensitive in the analysis in the modeling to a variety of levels or values to those quantities. What we’ve been seeing, though, in Europe in the last week or two is a rate of growth of the epidemic which was faster than we expected from early data in China. And so we are revising our quotes, our central best estimate of the reproduction… something more, a little bit above of the order of three or a little bit above rather than about 2.5.” He added, “the current values are still within the wide range of values which modeling groups [unintelligible] we should have been looking at previously.”

A higher rate of transmission than expected means that more people have the virus than previously expected; when the number of those with coronavirus is divided by the number of deaths, therefore, the mortality rate for the disease drops.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Flexacon on March 26, 2020, 04:38:57 PM
Why is the media publishing misleading articles?

The headline clearly states he drastically reduced his model, if his original projections included results based or action/no action why are they misleading the public?

Trump wants the idiots to go back to work and they seem happy and willing.

Americans are in for a rude awakening. 9/11 and hurricane katrina will be remembered as fond memories once this is done.

I have it on good authority that the media won't spare us when it comes to news coverage of the horrors that await. It's almost like they want the entire population walking around with PTSD.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Flexacon on March 26, 2020, 04:42:23 PM

His projection was based on incorrect data.

>



See my post above this.

The R value doesn't change the predicted number of deaths if no measures are taken.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: chaos on March 26, 2020, 04:44:22 PM
https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-behind-highly-cited-coronavirus-model-admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massively downgraded projection of the potential death toll on Wednesday.

Whaaaaaa???? Nobody tell Army of Panic and friends.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Flexacon on March 26, 2020, 04:48:58 PM



A higher rate of transmission than expected means that more people have the virus than previously expected; when the number of those with coronavirus is divided by the number of deaths, therefore, the mortality rate for the disease drops.

This just means herd immunity is achieved faster and things get back to normal quicker if distancing and other measures are taken when needed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: prowlermaniac on March 26, 2020, 04:50:53 PM
So just a big overreaction for financial gain?  Sounds about right
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Princess L on March 26, 2020, 04:57:09 PM
Trump wants the idiots to go back to work and they seem happy and willing.

Americans are in for a rude awakening. 9/11 and hurricane katrina will be remembered as fond memories once this is done.

I have it on good fake news authority that the MSM won't spare us when it comes to news coverage of the horrors that await. It's almost like they want the entire population walking around with PTSD.

Fixed
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: el numero uno on March 26, 2020, 04:59:10 PM
The title of the article was so misleading they actually had to change it.

Quote
Correction: The original title of this article incorrectly suggested that Neil Ferguson stated his initial model was wrong. The article has been revised to make clear that he provided a downgraded projection given the new data and current mitigation steps.

1. He was wrong about the rate of reproduction, which he now estimates around 3 rather than 2.5. This means there are more infected people. Since there are more infected people the mortality rate automatically decreases. But we're talking about a reduction in relative terms, not a reduction in absolute terms if lock down measures were not taken.

2. The revision takes into account the lock down. That's why the number of deaths plummets.

PD: It's worth to point out that the criticism to the model by Oxford Professor states that the high incidence will trigger herd inmunity sooner, and thus lead to fewer deaths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Army of One on March 26, 2020, 05:00:17 PM
https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-behind-highly-cited-coronavirus-model-admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massively downgraded projection of the potential death toll on Wednesday.


Lol.The previous figures were based on not shutting down the entire world, something that has never been done throughout human history.You can weld everyone in their homes theoretically and crime on the streets would go to near zero, but good luck with the rest of the aspects of society.Possibly they can balance lockdowns with keeping the economy semi functioning, but that remains to be seen.Truly Uncharted territory.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Dave D on March 26, 2020, 05:01:47 PM
Trump wants the idiots to go back to work and they seem happy and willing.

Americans are in for a rude awakening. 9/11 and hurricane katrina will be remembered as fond memories once this is done.

I have it on good authority that the media won't spare us when it comes to news coverage of the horrors that await. It's almost like they want the entire population walking around with PTSD.

The media won’t spare us the horrors? Have they ever? I have seen some very graphic images on broadcast television. The internet holds nothing back.

People are going to die or they can survive and end up homeless and destitute? Those are the choices presented to us. Given the amount of people unemployed and the grim reality that that picture paints death is the less scary option.

Again I know a common thought is why isn’t this virus wiping out the “undesirables”, the homeless and impoverished, (maybe we are to early into the cycle) and those who aren’t practicing lockdown/shelter in place? As reported we can expect 70-80% of the US to become infected, many are willing to take their chances.


Also you’re not really going out on limb comparing area specific events and to a worldwide pandemic.
 
Thank your source.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: el numero uno on March 26, 2020, 05:02:39 PM
Did any of you guys read the article? Wth ???
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Flexacon on March 26, 2020, 05:10:38 PM
The media won’t spare us the horrors? Have they ever? I have seen some very graphic images on broadcast television. The internet holds nothing back.

People are going to die or they can survive and end up homeless and destitute? Those are the choices presented to us. Given the amount of people unemployed and the grim reality that that picture paints death is the less scary option.

Again I know a common thought is why isn’t this virus wiping out the “undesirables”, the homeless and impoverished, (maybe we are to early into the cycle) and those who aren’t practicing lockdown/shelter in place? As reported we can expect 70-80% of the US to become infected, many are willing to take their chances.

 
Thank your source.

There is a big difference between getting back to work thinking this is all just fake news and getting back to work trying to do your best to minimize risk.

The asians have managed the latter, but the West for the most part seem incapable of this. Inaccurate articles like this one won't help either. Just look at some of the posts in this thread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Thin Lizzy on March 26, 2020, 05:15:32 PM
This has nothing to do with his model being wrong. The 500,000 UK deaths and 2.2 million US deaths were assuming worst case scenarios if no action were taken. Action however has been taken so now you add those to the model, plus any other new data.

No offence, but you need to read and understand both papers before commenting on this.

Yes, where would we be were it not for the swift action taken by the mayor of New York City, which as we all know is the epicenter of the virus?




Bill de Blasio
@BilldeBlasio
Since I’m encouraging New Yorkers to go on with your lives + get out on the town despite Coronavirus, I thought I would offer some suggestions. Here’s the first: thru Thurs 3/5 go see “The Traitor”
@FilmLinc
. If “The Wire” was a true story + set in Italy, it would be this film.
8:16 PM · Mar 2, 2020

Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: basil on March 26, 2020, 05:34:37 PM
This has nothing to do with his model being wrong. The 500,000 UK deaths and 2.2 million US deaths were assuming worst case scenarios if no action were taken. Action however has been taken so now you add those to the model, plus any other new data.

No offence, but you need to read and understand both papers before commenting on this.

Absolutely.  There has been a drastic shift in human behaviour on a global basis since govs and public health officials began awareness campaigns.  Entire countries shutting down and drastically restricting physical contact .  1.3 billion in India currently under lockdown orders, for one example. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Dave D on March 26, 2020, 05:36:28 PM
There is a big difference between getting back to work thinking this is all just fake news and getting back to work trying to do your best to minimize risk.

The asians have managed the latter, but the West for the most part seem incapable of this. Inaccurate articles like this one won't help either. Just look at some of the posts in this thread.

Bro every time I’ve posted I’ve referenced the original post. Read the original link, it says the Doctor admits he was wrong, put the article says nothing like that.

My point this whole time has been we are making decisions based off of media spin.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Thin Lizzy on March 26, 2020, 05:36:49 PM
Not only was the model wrong but the tests are shit. The only thing was wasn’t botched was the money printing. What world governments have printed so far is equal to the GDP of Japan.


 For those who don’t know Spanish it says “Tests no workey Amigo.”




New York Is Making Its Own Coronavirus Test After The CDC’s Tests Have Repeatedly Failed

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/danvergano/coronavirus-test-new-york-cdc



https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-03-25/los-test-rapidos-de-coronavirus-comprados-en-china-no-funcionan.html

LA CRISIS DEL CORONAVIRUS

Los test rápidos de coronavirus comprados en China no funcionan bien
Los laboratorios de microbiología comunican que las pruebas que adquirió el Gobierno tienen una sensibilidad del 30% cuando deberían superar el 80
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Thin Lizzy on March 26, 2020, 05:38:26 PM
Absolutely.  There has been a drastic shift in human behaviour on a global basis since govs and public health officials began awareness campaigns.  Entire countries shutting down and drastically restricting physical contact .  1.3 billion in India currently under lockdown orders, for one example.  

Dude I just posted a tweet from the fucking mayor of New York City on March 2 encouraging people to go out despite corona. There was nothing done in New York City for December, January and February.

Here’s a radical idea, how about some of you motherfuckers admit you got worked.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Army of One on March 26, 2020, 05:38:50 PM
https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-behind-highly-cited-coronavirus-model-admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massively downgraded projection of the potential death toll on Wednesday.


He just clarified.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Necrosis on March 26, 2020, 05:46:34 PM
The US has mishandled this terribly lol.

Trump is such a tool.

US has now surpassed China, the epicenter ahaha.

why do people support this guy? he literally said this is a hoax.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: basil on March 26, 2020, 05:50:08 PM
Dude I just posted a tweet from the fucking mayor of New York City on March 2 encouraging people to go out despite corona. There was nothing done in New York City for December, January and February.

Here’s a radical idea, how about some of you motherfuckers admit you got worked.

You misunderstood me.  I think the US is fcuked b/c of those that carried on as per normal while the asians, for example, took it seriously and realized major risk reduction as a result.  I’m saying that his model is still valid under the assumptions it was based on, primarily no significant change in behaviour.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: IroNat on March 26, 2020, 05:51:05 PM
This just means herd immunity is achieved faster and things get back to normal quicker if distancing and other measures are taken when needed.

Herd immunity only happens if the herd is infected and fights off the infection.

Some of the herd dies.  Most of the herd lives.

Isolation and social distancing delays the development of herd immunity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Flexacon on March 26, 2020, 05:53:54 PM
Bro every time I’ve posted I’ve referenced the original post. Read the original link, it says the Doctor admits he was wrong, put the article says nothing like that.

My point this whole time has been we are making decisions based off of media spin.


If a virus spreads and eventually infects 80% of the population with no measures in place before burning out, then the difference in rates doesn't  matter.

Let's say I eat a plate of spaghetti in 2.5 minutes and my belly will be 80% full. If I eat it is 3 minutes my belly will still be 80% full. No difference.

He admitted he was wrong about the rate the virus spread. He used Chinese numbers which was around 2.5, it now looks more like 3. This however doesn't change his original 500k or 2.2m claim

Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: IroNat on March 26, 2020, 05:54:01 PM
The US has mishandled this terribly lol.

Trump is such a tool.

US has now surpassed China, the epicenter ahaha.

why do people support this guy? he literally said this is a hoax.

China is not reporting their numbers.  Their numbers have hardly changed in past couple weeks. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: IroNat on March 26, 2020, 06:01:10 PM

If a virus spreads and eventually infects 80% of the population with no measures in place before burning out, then the difference in rates doesn't  matter.

Let's say I eat a plate of spaghetti in 2.5 minutes and my belly will be 80% full. If I eat it is 3 minutes my belly will still be 80% full. No difference.

He admitted he was wrong about the rate the virus spread. He used Chinese numbers which was around 2.5, it now looks more like 3. This however doesn't change his original 500k or 2.2m claim



Sure it does.  He even says it.

His original projection predicted a very high death rate per thousand.

His revised projection lowers the rate per thousand tremendously.

The rate per thousand goes way down because he underestimated how many people are infected.  

If you think 100 people are infected and 5 die you have a 5% death rate per confirmed case.

If 1000 people are actually infected and 5 die you have a .5% death rate per confirmed case.

That's how you go from 2,000,000 dying to 20,000.

It's a heckuva error but he was doing the best he could with the info available.  Still a HUGE error.



Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Flexacon on March 26, 2020, 06:04:17 PM
Herd immunity only happens if the herd is infected and fights off the infection.

Some of the herd dies.  Most of the herd lives.

Isolation and social distancing delays the development of herd immunity.


More of the herd can be saved with things like  social distancing, wearing masks, not taking uncessary journeys. The rate of infection we see now actually means herd immunity would happen faster than predicted originally by the model

Trust me I get it. I was all for herd immunity without restriction, but with what I've seen I've changed my mind. Far too many just don't have it in them to bounce back from something like that mentally.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Necrosis on March 26, 2020, 06:06:34 PM
China is not reporting their numbers.  Their numbers have hardly changed in past couple weeks. 



dawg, the test kits in the US are paltry, the actually number is way way higher like 2-3x higher . China can lock down like few other countries, the numbers should be going down, the curve was flattened by intense shut down, isolation etc

The US is still not taking it seriously. The end result will be a huge black eye on the US.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: IroNat on March 26, 2020, 06:07:10 PM
More of the herd can be saved with things like  social distancing, wearing masks, not taking uncessary journeys. The rate of infection we see now actually means herd immunity would happen faster than predicted originally by the model

Trust me I get it. I was all for herd immunity without restriction, but with what I've seen I've changed my mind. Far too many just don't have it in them to bounce back from something like that mentally.

The revised model shows that the virus, while deadly for some (as is the flu), is not the dire situation that has been presented.

All these crazy lockdowns and shutting down business and passing a $2.2 trillion rescue plan are unnecessary.

Too late to stop the insanity.  Now we are really f*cked.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Flexacon on March 26, 2020, 06:09:20 PM
Sure it does.  He even says it.

His original projection predicted a very high death rate per thousand.

His revised projection lowers the rate per thousand tremendously.

The rate per thousand goes way down because he underestimated how many people are infected.  

If you think 100 people are infected and 5 die you have a 5% death rate per confirmed case.

If 1000 people are actually infected and 5 die you have a .5% death rate per confirmed case.

That's how you go from 2,000,000 dying to 20,000.

It's a heckuva error but he was doing the best he could with the info available.  Still a HUGE error.





The 20,000 figure is for the UK not the US. Seriously some of you need to step away from this thread. How can I put this kindly.

(https://media.giphy.com/media/5YKiGHlMGBO48/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Thin Lizzy on March 26, 2020, 06:12:37 PM
You misunderstood me.  I think the US is fcuked b/c of those that carried on as per normal while the asians, for example, took it seriously and realized major risk reduction as a result.  I’m saying that his model is still valid under the assumptions it was based on, primarily no significant change in behaviour.  


There was no outbreak during December, January and February even with no precautions taken. The first person to die of corona in New York City was an 82-year-old woman with emphysema, in March. So if we went through the heart of flu season with no major outbreak why would there be one of the end of flu season?

All of the people you see flocking to hospitals now is the result of a self fulfilling prophecy. The nonstop 24/7 Corona hysteria  has everybody thinking that a little cough or scratchy throat means they have it.

The problem with models in general is that they almost invariably miss something that makes a huge difference.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: IroNat on March 26, 2020, 06:12:57 PM
The 20,000 figure is for the UK not the US. Seriously some of you need to step away from this thread. How can I put this kindly.


My bad.

Going from 500,000 to 20,000 is a heckuva drop.  

For the US it would 2,000,000 dropping to 80,000.

A bad flu year.  .026% of the US population.

Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: el numero uno on March 26, 2020, 06:13:55 PM
He just clarified.


That's exactly what's stated in the article.

However, the title was misleading, and Getbiggers are already celebrating, cause you know, reading an article is just too much of a hassle.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Flexacon on March 26, 2020, 06:16:37 PM
My bad.

Going from 500,000 to 20,000 is a heckuva drop.  

For the US it would 2,000,000 dropping to 80,000.

A bad flu year.  



But that drop only happens because of the lockdown and social distancing measures. With there weren't any measures then there is no drop in deaths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Army of One on March 26, 2020, 06:17:46 PM
My bad.

Going from 500,000 to 20,000 is a heckuva drop.  

For the US it would 2,000,000 dropping to 80,000.

A bad flu year.  



He already said pretty much all the drop is down to the social distancing measures.While the numbers have changed in regard to it being easier to transmit than previously thought, it still doesn't change the lethality by much for the overall number.Read the tweet he wrote an hour ago,UK's overall mortality numbers would still be largely the same with no social distancing in place.And to call the virus nothing is insane.Todays final number will likely have it firmly in position 1 of today's transmissible disease deaths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Thin Lizzy on March 26, 2020, 06:18:43 PM
There is a big difference between getting back to work thinking this is all just fake news and getting back to work trying to do your best to minimize risk.

The asians have managed the latter, but the West for the most part seem incapable of this. Inaccurate articles like this one won't help either. Just look at some of the posts in this thread.

The overwhelming majority of the vulnerable don’t even work. They’re retired.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Thin Lizzy on March 26, 2020, 06:22:29 PM
He already said pretty much all the drop is down to the social distancing measures.While the numbers have changed in regard to it being easier to transmit than previously thought, it still doesn't change the lethality by much for the overall number.Read the tweet he wrote an hour ago,UK's overall mortality numbers would still be largely the same with no social distancing in place.And to call the virus nothing is insane.Todays final number will likely have it firmly in position 1 of today's transmissible disease deaths.

Come on, you can’t just assume all of those deaths are primarily from corona when almost everybody had other underlying serious health conditions like heart disease and diabetes.

You know people did die before corona. In fact, almost 3,000,000 people in the United States a year die.

I give credit where it’s due. You did a good job of identifying how big of a deal this would be, but you didn’t identify what this really is about.


Powell: Federal Reserve will not 'run out of ammunition' to protect economy | TheHill

https://thehill.com/policy/finance/489606-powell-fed-will-not-run-out-of-ammunition-to-protect-economy
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Flexacon on March 26, 2020, 06:25:44 PM
The overwhelming majority of the vulnerable don’t even work. They’re retired.

And when all the 40 and 50 yearolds who are obese, smoke, drink etc need hospital treatment to recover from the virus, but there aren't enough beds, doctors and nurses available to treat them. What happens to them?
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Army of One on March 26, 2020, 06:26:47 PM
Come on, you can’t just assume all of those deaths are primarily from corona when almost everybody had other underlying serious health conditions like heart disease and diabetes.

You know people did die before corona. In fact, almost 3,000,000 people in the United States a year die.

I give credit where it’s due. You did a good job of identifying how big of a deal this would be, but you didn’t identify what this really is about.


Powell: Federal Reserve will not 'run out of ammunition' to protect economy | TheHill

https://thehill.com/policy/finance/489606-powell-fed-will-not-run-out-of-ammunition-to-protect-economy

Aids doesn't kill anyone either, it's the infections they get when aids lowers their tcell count to low levels.Regular flu doesn't kill you directly, it's usually pnuemonia that finishes you off because you cant clear mucus as well due to the flu, which causes bacteria to build up.Do you want to rewrite the rulebook for every disease to fit the agenda?
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Thin Lizzy on March 26, 2020, 06:37:21 PM
Aids doesn't kill anyone either, it's the infections they get when aids lowers their tcell count to low levels.Regular flu doesn't kill you directly, it's usually pnuemonia that finishes you off because you cant clear mucus as well due to the flu, which causes bacteria to build up.Do you want to rewrite the rulebook for every disease to fit the agenda?

You can keep chasing the story all you want, the politicians in Washington have moved on. All they care about right now is spending the money.

The mayor and governor in New York didn’t give a shit about corona until word came down that there was gonna be a stimulus package. At that point, it became the most important thing in the world and nobody could get within 6 feet of each other.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Army of One on March 26, 2020, 06:40:51 PM
You can keep chasing the story all you want, the politicians in Washington have moved on. All they care about right now is spending the money.

The mayor and governor in New York didn’t give a shit about corona until word came down that there was gonna be a stimulus package. At that point, it became the most important thing in the world and nobody could get within 6 feet of each other.

What story?It's just the facts.A virus nobody had heard of 3 months ago is now the biggest killing transmissible disease in the world, that's not a story, that's a fact.If you think thats nothing, then you clearly have a very warped view of what is normal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Thin Lizzy on March 26, 2020, 06:44:03 PM
What story?It's just the facts.A virus nobody had heard of 3 months ago is now the biggest killing transmissible disease in the world, that's not a story, that's a fact.If you think thats nothing, then you are clearly have a very warped view of what is normal.

We can go back-and-forth about the data forever. One thing that is beyond debate is the fact that trillions of dollars have recently been printed. And if you think there’s nothing else going on beneath the surface you’re completely clueless as to how the world really works.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: mazrim on March 26, 2020, 06:50:53 PM
Some of you guys are ridiculous and cannot admit you were wrong and are the type of people I now look at as completely unreasonable and ones to look out for if something really bad actually does come about in our country. You will completely meltdown and be a danger to the rest of us. He was wrong and many, many have been pointing this out for weeks now.

"In order to save face, Ferguson told members of Parliament that part of his calculous is that the lockdown measures are helping. But the problem is, as former NYT reporter Alex Berenson observed, those measures were not implemented until two days ago. The backbone of Ferguson’s new projection is constructed on a fact that has been built into the equation for months."

https://www.conservativereview.com/news/horowitz-man-spooked-world-coronavirus-model-walks-back-prediction/?fbclid=IwAR1gMHyE6-7dfvTHx4GK88SzekT2dtw3-KAcjU8ewDLKE2zsjjnTt8CxQi0
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: mazrim on March 26, 2020, 06:55:30 PM
We can go back-and-forth about the data forever. One thing that is beyond debate is the fact that trillions of dollars have recently been printed. And if you think there’s nothing else going on beneath the surface you’re completely clueless as to how the world really works.
You get it.

They messed up royally (both intentionally and unintentionally) and will never admit it and also took the opportunity for the gullible sheeplike crowds to push their agenda for them by not looking at the data for themselves and only reading headlines. Both parties are at fault for this. They will be praised by over 50% of the country when in reality they caused a bigger issue than what was there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Dave D on March 26, 2020, 06:56:57 PM

If a virus spreads and eventually infects 80% of the population with no measures in place before burning out, then the difference in rates doesn't  matter.

Let's say I eat a plate of spaghetti in 2.5 minutes and my belly will be 80% full. If I eat it is 3 minutes my belly will still be 80% full. No difference.

He admitted he was wrong about the rate the virus spread. He used Chinese numbers which was around 2.5, it now looks more like 3. This however doesn't change his original 500k or 2.2m claim



Ok.

So the original media article was correct and I am wrong there is no spin......
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Flexacon on March 26, 2020, 07:03:44 PM
Ok.

So the original media article was correct and I am wrong there is no spin......

I wasn't talking about spin in this thread. I was saying people who don't understand the paper or haven't read it should avoid commenting on it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: SOMEPARTS on March 26, 2020, 07:44:29 PM
There will be more conspiracies about this thing than ten 9/11s put together...
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: chaos on March 26, 2020, 07:48:39 PM
Create panic and fear with bullshit model and scare tactics, force people to lockdown "for their own good", tell them to "social distance" if they do go outside, convince the media and government that millions will die, then when they don't die, claim your "social distancing" is working. ::)
Majority of people in CA are still out in public, interacting with each other and living their lives. The POS governor that slept with his best friends wife claimed 22.5 millions Californians would be infected. ::)
Over 40 million people in California, as of 3-26, there were 4,000 cases. You do the math. ::)
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: tommywishbone on March 26, 2020, 07:58:41 PM
 ;D 

Well color me surprised. It's all just a crying baby with a diaper rash.

 ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Dave D on March 26, 2020, 08:03:16 PM
https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-behind-highly-cited-coronavirus-model-admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model




I wasn't talking about spin in this thread. I was saying people who don't understand the paper or haven't read it should avoid commenting on it.

Yes well people who read the highlighted link first, as many do or in most cases only headlines, would have a massively different opinion than the truth. Hence the media created a false narrative.

That said the majority of people dont know all the information or understand the facts, for anything.

Getbig has the experts and even they are mocked. Army and Gib were the first ones to warn us about this virus and for the most part they were correct, and they’re still ridiculed.

Misinformed opinions are what this place is about. Welcome to Getbig.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Army of One on March 26, 2020, 08:29:16 PM
Imagine the denial and cope to think the speed of growth and amount is nothing to worry about.

(https://thumbs.gfycat.com/CanineSelfassuredHellbender-size_restricted.gif)
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Mayday on March 26, 2020, 08:57:41 PM
Not only was the model wrong but the tests are shit.

A lot of debate here about the tests because the numbers for something so infectious are so tiny.

I posted about my neighbour who is a doctor at a hospital told me 8000 people rock up and only 40 test positive.

It's already everywhere. If they built a model under incorrect assumptions in exposure then estimated mortality rates will be incorrect (ie formulated to high).

Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: harmankardon1 on March 26, 2020, 09:04:22 PM
Create panic and fear with bullshit model and scare tactics, force people to lockdown "for their own good", tell them to "social distance" if they do go outside, convince the media and government that millions will die, then when they don't die, claim your "social distancing" is working. ::)
Majority of people in CA are still out in public, interacting with each other and living their lives. The POS governor that slept with his best friends wife claimed 22.5 millions Californians would be infected. ::)
Over 40 million people in California, as of 3-26, there were 4,000 cases. You do the math. ::)

You said it brother, total crock of shit!

This level of hysterics is unmatched in human history.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Army of One on March 26, 2020, 09:34:02 PM
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8157437/If-world-not-responded-coronavirus-immediately-killed-40-million.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Mayday on March 27, 2020, 01:28:16 AM
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8157437/If-world-not-responded-coronavirus-immediately-killed-40-million.html

I can play with numbers to.

Australia has a 1.4% positive coronavirus rate in testing.

Australia has done 163,000 tests.

Australia has been open (still is compared to the wider world) and is behind everybody else in closures.

The conclusion therefore is there is a virus out there that is almost 100x more infectious than coronvairus which is sending floods of Australian population into hospitals.

OR..... the test kits don't work and corona virus is everywhere. If they are not factoring that into their models, fatality rate is skewed to high giving total bullshit death predictions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: G_Thang on March 27, 2020, 01:37:56 AM
(https://thumbs.gfycat.com/SpicyImpressionableIndianjackal-size_restricted.gif)
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Thin Lizzy on March 27, 2020, 02:34:11 AM
I can play with numbers to.

Australia has a 1.4% positive coronavirus rate in testing.

Australia has done 163,000 tests.

Australia has been open (still is compared to the wider world) and is behind everybody else in closures.

The conclusion therefore is there is a virus out there that is almost 100x more infectious than coronvairus which is sending floods of Australian population into hospitals.

OR..... the test kits don't work and corona virus is everywhere. If they are not factoring that into their models, fatality rate is skewed to high giving total bullshit death predictions.


Apparently, the model is off because Ferguson didn’t take into account the social distancing practices that would be put into place. Here’s one that took place in New York City on February 2. The health commissioner encouraging people to go to a parade in Chinatown.


Commissioner Oxiris Barbot

@NYCHealthCommr

As we gear up to celebrate the ‪#LunarNewYear‬ in NYC, I want to assure New Yorkers that there is no reason for anyone to change their holiday plans, avoid the subway, or certain parts of the city because of ‪#coronavirus‬.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: G_Thang on March 27, 2020, 02:41:29 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rDpsm971NQQ (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rDpsm971NQQ)

Someone said, he had not seen many AA deaths.  Piss poor reporting, given they didn't include underling health issues.  The 2 sisters were obese. I'm assuming they were diabetics.  If you are type 1 or 2, hide in a closet too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Thin Lizzy on March 27, 2020, 02:56:29 AM
See my post above this.

The R value doesn't change the predicted number of deaths if no measures are taken.


Here’s another measure taken. On March 09, the mayor of New York City saying that he has no plans to cancel the St. Patrick’s Day parade which typically draws about 2 million people into the city and packs the bars. You couldn’t have an event more conducive for the spreading of a contagious virus.


Mayor says NYC has no plans to cancel St. Patrick’s Day Parade as Ireland cancels Dublin’s parade amid coronavirus fears

https://www.silive.com/coronavirus/2020/03/mayor-says-nyc-has-no-plans-to-cancel-st-patricks-day-parade-as-ireland-cancels-dublins-parade-amid-coronavirus-fears.html

Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Thin Lizzy on March 27, 2020, 02:58:15 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rDpsm971NQQ (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rDpsm971NQQ)

Someone said, he had not seen many AA deaths.  Piss poor reporting, given they didn't include underling health issues.  The 2 sisters were obese. I'm assuming they were diabetics.  If you are type 1 or 2, hide in a closet too.

This is how the scam works. If you get a positive test reading, the cause of death is corona and nothing else counts.

There was a story about a 20-year-old who died of corona. Turned out he also had leukemia.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: pellius on March 27, 2020, 04:23:15 AM
Meanwhile, Sweden is operating pretty much as normal and leaving it up to the individual to take care of themselves and follow the recommendations, not orders, from the government.

It will be interesting to see how it goes for them.

https://reason.com/2020/03/25/despite-coronavirus-sweden-refuses-to-shutter-businesses-and-limit-gatherings/
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: harmankardon1 on March 27, 2020, 04:30:01 AM
I can play with numbers to.

Australia has a 1.4% positive coronavirus rate in testing.

Australia has done 163,000 tests.

Australia has been open (still is compared to the wider world) and is behind everybody else in closures.

The conclusion therefore is there is a virus out there that is almost 100x more infectious than coronvairus which is sending floods of Australian population into hospitals.

OR..... the test kits don't work and corona virus is everywhere. If they are not factoring that into their models, fatality rate is skewed to high giving total bullshit death predictions.


Australia has been more or less shut up the last 5 days...

163000 tests just shows how many people catch colds flu etc in these timeframes and that coronavirus is accounting for 1.5% of people displaying these types of symptoms. The rest have other viral or bacterial infections.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: oldtimer1 on March 27, 2020, 04:45:39 AM
24,057 have been killed world wide since the virus was recognized which is the estimate from the WHO, CDC, ECDC, and NHC. Don't trust a meme with phony graphs made by someone in their mom's basement. 1290 are the amount of deaths in the US since the virus began.  These numbers are accurate as of 3-27-2020. They are not daily numbers but the total since the virus was made aware to the world.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: ProudVirgin69 on March 27, 2020, 04:50:02 AM
This is how the scam works. If you get a positive test reading, the cause of death is corona and nothing else counts.

There was a story about a 20-year-old who died of corona. Turned out he also had leukemia.

It is possible to have one medical condition and die from a second, entirely different condition.  In that sense, it is not incorrect to say he died from COVID pneumonia.  You are right though in that the leukemia was almost certainly a huge factor in his death
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: bigkid on March 27, 2020, 04:53:40 AM
This the same thing as climate change reporting.  People take the improbable, highly unlikely, worst case scenarios and blast it out like there's a high probability of it happening.  The climate thing doesn't ever stick and cause real panic amongst the masses because there's no tangible bodies to be seen.  There's only two possible scenarios here. 1.  All the modeling was done with poor data and assumptions and this virus is not near the threat people made it out to be or 2. It's a serious virus and President Trump and his team have done a great job mitigating it.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Thin Lizzy on March 27, 2020, 05:26:08 AM
This the same thing as climate change reporting.  People take the improbable, highly unlikely, worst case scenarios and blast it out like there's a high probability of it happening.  The climate thing doesn't ever stick and cause real panic amongst the masses because there's no tangible bodies to be seen.  There's only two possible scenarios here. 1.  All the modeling was done with poor data and assumptions and this virus is not near the threat people made it out to be or 2. It's a serious virus and President Trump and his team have done a great job mitigating it.  

Solid post. It’s #1:

Here is a new York city health official, on February 9, prodding people to go to chinatown for a parade:



Mark D. Levine
@MarkLevineNYC
In powerful show of defiance of #coronavirus scare, huge crowds gathering in NYC's Chinatown for ceremony ahead of annual #LunarNewYear parade. Chants of "be strong Wuhan!"

If you are staying away, you are missing out!
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: loco on March 27, 2020, 05:29:04 AM
This the same thing as climate change reporting.  People take the improbable, highly unlikely, worst case scenarios and blast it out like there's a high probability of it happening.  The climate thing doesn't ever stick and cause real panic amongst the masses because there's no tangible bodies to be seen.  There's only two possible scenarios here. 1.  All the modeling was done with poor data and assumptions and this virus is not near the threat people made it out to be or 2. It's a serious virus and President Trump and his team have done a great job mitigating it.  

(https://imgflip.com/s/meme/Two-Buttons.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: IroNat on March 27, 2020, 05:34:13 AM
And when all the 40 and 50 yearolds who are obese, smoke, drink etc need hospital treatment to recover from the virus, but there aren't enough beds, doctors and nurses available to treat them. What happens to them?

(https://media.giphy.com/media/Wxc0YUSvbtC48/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: harmankardon1 on March 27, 2020, 05:36:26 AM
Holy shit what a gif^
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Thin Lizzy on March 27, 2020, 06:18:26 AM
It is possible to have one medical condition and die from a second, entirely different condition.  In that sense, it is not incorrect to say he died from COVID pneumonia.  You are right though in that the leukemia was almost certainly a huge factor in his death

Your point would be valid except for one thing: not everyone has symptoms. In the guardian piece posted below, it cites an Iceland study that shows an asymptomatic rate of 50%. With that said, how do you know that you wouldn’t have had the other symptoms even if you didn’t have the virus. People did get colds before corona: right?



https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/23/have-i-already-had-covid19-coronavirus

Could I have had it and been asymptomatic?
Hillmann: Coronavirus is actually quite a significant spectrum of symptoms, from people who are entirely asymptomatic and would have no idea that they have it to people with very mild, cold-like symptoms – runny nose, congestion, sore throat – to people with more flu-like symptoms – high fevers, muscle aches, shortness of breath and cough. All the way up to people with severe illness, who we’re seeing in the hospital with respiratory failure, requiring ICU care. (Editor’s note: recent reports suggest that loss of smell and taste are also signs of Covid-19 infection.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: nzgs on March 27, 2020, 06:25:15 AM
This has nothing to do with his model being wrong. The 500,000 UK deaths and 2.2 million US deaths were assuming worst case scenarios if no action were taken. Action however has been taken so now you add those to the model, plus any other new data.

No offence, but you need to read and understand both papers before commenting on this.

Only an imbecile believes the original numbers. 96% of people with covid have mild symptoms that don't require hospitalisation. Even if every single person in the UK contracted the virus (which is ridiculous) you would only have 4.4% of people with severe conditions and only a small proportion of these will die, which is nowhere near 500k. Almost no one currently with covid is being tested, they are being told to stay at home unless it gets serious.

I am sick to death of these "experts" never being held accountable for their politically-motivated anti-science. This is on the same scale of delusion as the NASA scientists who said the arctic would disappear by 2013.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Necrosis on March 27, 2020, 06:40:43 AM
And when all the 40 and 50 yearolds who are obese, smoke, drink etc need hospital treatment to recover from the virus, but there aren't enough beds, doctors and nurses available to treat them. What happens to them?

This is the problem that the tarts cant see. Good luck US, your leadership is atrocious.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Flexacon on March 27, 2020, 06:56:17 AM
Only an imbecile believes the original numbers. 96% of people with covid have mild symptoms that don't require hospitalisation. Even if every single person in the UK contracted the virus (which is ridiculous) you would only have 4.4% of people with severe conditions and only a small proportion of these will die, which is nowhere near 500k. Almost no one currently with covid is being tested, they are being told to stay at home unless it gets serious.

I am sick to death of these "experts" never being held accountable for their politically-motivated anti-science. This is on the same scale of delusion as the NASA scientists who said the arctic would disappear by 2013.

Only a small proportion die because those with severe conditions are able to receive medical attention. Remove that medical attention, which is what happens if too many are infected at the same time and suddenly it's not such a small proportion dying. The  motive behind this particular experts original numbers was to stop this happening.

I agree though experts need to be called out and this particular one was by some Oxford academics. What we don't need are morons who haven't even read his paper doing it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Thin Lizzy on March 27, 2020, 06:58:55 AM
This is the problem that the tarts cant see. Good luck US, your leadership is atrocious.


Canadians are so fucking clueless. The reason for the run on hospitals is not because of the virus itself but because of the fucking three weeks of nonstop hammering. Do you not think this has had an effect? Everybody with a fucking stuffy nose and a sore throat is going to the hospital. That’s the problem.

Why did all this fear and hysteria have to be ginned up. Take a wild fucking guess:


House leaders look to expedite $2.2 trillion relief package but face possibility that one GOP lawmaker may delay passage - The Washington Post

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/26/senate-trump-coronavirus-economic-stimulus-2-trillion/
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Necrosis on March 27, 2020, 07:07:00 AM

Canadians are so fucking clueless. The reason for the run on hospitals is not because of the virus itself but because of the fucking three weeks of nonstop hammering. Do you not think this has had an effect? Everybody with a fucking stuffy nose and a sore throat is going to the hospital. That’s the problem.

Why did all this fear and hysteria have to be ginned up. Take a wild fucking guess:


House leaders look to expedite $2.2 trillion relief package but face possibility that one GOP lawmaker may delay passage - The Washington Post

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/26/senate-trump-coronavirus-economic-stimulus-2-trillion/

Conspiracy theories are always a safe bet!

Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Thin Lizzy on March 27, 2020, 07:11:01 AM
Conspiracy theories are always a safe bet!



It’s not intelligence you lack. It’s Street smarts. $2.2 trillion is bigger than the GDP of your whole fucking country. Only a naive doofus would think that this is on the up and up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Bevo on March 27, 2020, 07:15:41 AM
We certainly have everything on getbig, from millionaires, to MMA experts, a guy that turned down Carmen Electra, medical experts, Bitcoin millionaires, bunny suits, biceps machines, Vince Goodrum PHD CNN MSNBC

Unbelievable getbiggers
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: el numero uno on March 27, 2020, 07:26:19 AM
It’s not intelligence you lack. It’s Street smarts. $2.2 trillion is bigger than the GDP of your whole fucking country. Only a naive doofus would think that this is on the up and up.

The lock downs have been/are being implemented in many countries, not just the US.

Most of Europe and South America is now in quarantine.

Of all countries, only the US is passing a a rescue package.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Army of One on March 27, 2020, 07:30:21 AM
If the virus was spread that far and wide, Boris Johnson and Matt Hancock would have got it weeks/months ago with the hundreds of people they meet per week, and hundreds of people those people they meet per week.Same with Prince Charles.The fact they all get it now at the same time tells me the original numbers predicted are correct, and the time it exploded in the media, hospitals began seeing numbers, with everyone bringing it from Italy to the UK from holiday/vacation, is no coincidence.

Still very much the start spread wide unless social distancing can keep it down after the next 3 weeks.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8159701/Boris-Johnson-tests-positive-coronavirus-crisis-grips-UK.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: hardgainerj on March 27, 2020, 08:03:23 AM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: hardgainerj on March 27, 2020, 08:08:57 AM
https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-behind-highly-cited-coronavirus-model-admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massively downgraded projection of the potential death toll on Wednesday.

instead of posting a site for good-goyim provide the current up to date research
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Thin Lizzy on March 27, 2020, 08:10:29 AM
The lock downs have been/are being implemented in many countries, not just the US.

Most of Europe and South America is now in quarantine.

Of all countries, only the US is passing a a rescue package.


The  individual countries in Europe can’t pass rescue package as they don’t have their own currencies. It has to be done by the EU via the central bank. Please just stop and cut your losses. It’s getting embarrassing:



ECB shakes off limits on new €750bn bond buying plan

https://www.ft.com/content/d775a99e-13b2-444e-8de5-fd2ec6caf4bf

“They are saying to countries like Italy ‘we have got your back’,” said Iain Stealey, international chief investment officer for fixed income at JPMorgan Asset Management, which favours peripheral eurozone bonds in its portfolios. “It’s been a painful few days. But now, although we are not back to levels [of before the coronavirus crisis] we are not a million miles away
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: hardgainerj on March 27, 2020, 08:16:53 AM
reminder this is what daily wire's editor-in-chief believes



https://twitter.com/benshapiro/status/812900304865804288

USS Liberty incident was no big deal

=997

the supposed Jesus of Nazareth was justifiably executed by the Romans
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Army of One on March 27, 2020, 09:49:27 AM
Just passed 25k deaths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: el numero uno on March 27, 2020, 10:23:22 AM
The  individual countries in Europe can’t pass rescue package as they don’t have their own currencies. It has to be done by the EU via the central bank.
Please just stop and cut your losses. It’s getting embarrassing:

Of course it has to be done by the EU captain obvious. How is this an argument that they (the UE) can't do it? ???

ECB shakes off limits on new €750bn bond buying plan

https://www.ft.com/content/d775a99e-13b2-444e-8de5-fd2ec6caf4bf

“They are saying to countries like Italy ‘we have got your back’,” said Iain Stealey, international chief investment officer for fixed income at JPMorgan Asset Management, which favours peripheral eurozone bonds in its portfolios. “It’s been a painful few days. But now, although we are not back to levels [of before the coronavirus crisis] we are not a million miles away

Many countries have been offered loans, how is this proof of anything? ::)

Drop off the tin foil hat. Nothing you write makes any damn sense.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Al Doggity on March 27, 2020, 10:58:47 AM




House leaders look to expedite $2.2 trillion relief package but face possibility that one GOP lawmaker may delay passage - The Washington Post

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/26/senate-trump-coronavirus-economic-stimulus-2-trillion/

So, I started a thread about this, but you never responded, so I'll just continue it here.

The theory that you've stated over and over is that the stimulus package is a covert way to devalue the dollar.  I don't understand this could hold any water.

1) Firstly, whose plan is this? Is it a dem plan, repub plan, businesses, a secret cabal?

2)Trump has wanted to devalue the dollar for several years and has been vocal about it. He has publicly feuded with the fed about it. Why would his administration not be taking this opportunity to- at the very least- casually mention that the stimulus will help weaken the dollar?

3)There are transparent ways to weaken the dollar and treas and gov have been openly exploring them.

4)Almost every valuation of the dollars' strength relies on international exchange.  Almost all of the stim money will be distributed domestically and will have a negligible impact on the dollars' strength.

5) No one- not america, not other economies- want the dollar  to surge like it's been surging the last few weeks. It's the world's dominant and safest asset, so when it surges it hurts the entire global economy, especially at a time like this.

6)The stimulus is not a result of exhaustion of debt, it's a rush to liquidity. Debt is one of the world economy's biggest profit drivers.

I just don't get this idea that something that everyone publicly wants (a weaker dollar) is something that the gov would have to come up with a conspiracy to secretly get.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: m8 on March 27, 2020, 12:08:50 PM
Blame idiots like Romano. "Just a flu, bro", "Get back to work", "Just kills old people, lock them up bro". I'm not even in the U.S but I knew this would backfire.

Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Thin Lizzy on March 27, 2020, 12:18:09 PM
So, I started a thread about this, but you never responded, so I'll just continue it here.

The theory that you've stated over and over is that the stimulus package is a covert way to devalue the dollar.  I don't understand this could hold any water.

1) Firstly, whose plan is this? Is it a dem plan, repub plan, businesses, a secret cabal?

2)Trump has wanted to devalue the dollar for several years and has been vocal about it. He has publicly feuded with the fed about it. Why would his administration not be taking this opportunity to- at the very least- casually mention that the stimulus will help weaken the dollar?

3)There are transparent ways to weaken the dollar and treas and gov have been openly exploring them.

4)Almost every valuation of the dollars' strength relies on international exchange.  Almost all of the stim money will be distributed domestically and will have a negligible impact on the dollars' strength.

5) No one- not america, not other economies- want the dollar  to surge like it's been surging the last few weeks. It's the world's dominant and safest asset, so when it surges it hurts the entire global economy, especially at a time like this.

6)The stimulus is not a result of exhaustion of debt, it's a rush to liquidity. Debt is one of the world economy's biggest profit drivers.

I just don't get this idea that something that everyone publicly wants (a weaker dollar) is something that the gov would have to come up with a conspiracy to secretly get.


Al, I’m not gonna get into a long drawn out debate with you about this. I’m going to explain it simply and then that’s it. If you agree, fine. If you disagree, that’s cool too.

The federal government is already running a deficit. Expenses are greater than revenues. So where are they going to get the 2 trillion? They’re going to issue bonds which the Fed is going to buy with money that they print, and that inflates the currency.

The reason the dollar is not gonna lose value in terms of other currencies is because every other country is doing it too. It’s a worldwide currency devaluation. The exchange rate between the dollar and the euro right now is exactly the same as it was five years ago. It’s not surging.

Regarding who is involved in this. Let’s look at who benefits. The financial establishment, the healthcare establishment, and the political class. Republicans and Democrats voted for this unanimously. They fight like cats and dogs but when it comes to spending money they’re all on the same page.

That’s it in a nut shell.  There’s no need to write a book about it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Al Doggity on March 27, 2020, 12:57:59 PM

Al, I’m not gonna get into a long drawn out debate with you about this. I’m going to explain it simply and then that’s it. If you agree, fine. If you disagree, that’s cool too.

Considering how much you've posted about it over several different threads, just assumed it was a topic you actually wanted to get into.  :-\

I just don't see it. You can pass it off as reasonable until you start looking at actual details, then it just makes no sense at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Thin Lizzy on March 27, 2020, 01:12:45 PM
you really need to be an intellectual equal of Lizzy to argue with him

This😂

The name of this board is gossip and opinions. Not gossip, opinions and endless, pointless debates that make me lose my will to live.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Al Doggity on March 27, 2020, 01:44:17 PM
This😂

The name of this board is gossip and opinions. Not gossip, opinions and endless, pointless debates that make me lose my will to live.


Sure.  ::)  You argue dumb shit all the time. You've posted these same things across multiple threads.  There's nothing about my post that's "intellectually inferior" to what you've, other than the fact that I disagree with you and am willing to go into detail as to why.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: el numero uno on March 27, 2020, 01:51:38 PM

Al, I’m not gonna get into a long drawn out debate with you about this. I’m going to explain it simply and then that’s it. If you agree, fine. If you disagree, that’s cool too.

The federal government is already running a deficit. Expenses are greater than revenues. So where are they going to get the 2 trillion? They’re going to issue bonds which the Fed is going to buy with money that they print, and that inflates the currency.

The reason the dollar is not gonna lose value in terms of other currencies is because every other country is doing it too. It’s a worldwide currency devaluation. The exchange rate between the dollar and the euro right now is exactly the same as it was five years ago. It’s not surging.

Regarding who is involved in this. Let’s look at who benefits. The financial establishment, the healthcare establishment, and the political class. Republicans and Democrats voted for this unanimously. They fight like cats and dogs but when it comes to spending money they’re all on the same page.

That’s it in a nut shell.  There’s no need to write a book about it.

Even if this were true, it still doesn't explain why dozens of other countries have implemented a lockdown. ::)


https://www.businessinsider.com/countries-on-lockdown-coronavirus-italy-2020-3


You really think there's a huge worldwide conspiracy that was carried out in order for US politicians to spend more? ???


You really think Europe, with a solid Healthcare System, implemented extreme measures out of fear and panic? ???
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: illuminati on March 27, 2020, 02:15:11 PM
Even if this were true, it still doesn't explain why dozens of other countries have implemented a lockdown. ::)


https://www.businessinsider.com/countries-on-lockdown-coronavirus-italy-2020-3


You really think there's a huge worldwide conspiracy that was carried out in order for US politicians to spend more? ???


You really think Europe, with a solid Healthcare System, implemented extreme measures out of fear and panic? ???



Or Governments Know More Than they're Telling us about this CHI NAH Virus from Wuhan Virology Labs   Food Market 🙄 ahh yes of course it is - The Chinese have in 2019 just decided to start eating all manner of dirty filthy types of Food 🙄
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Thin Lizzy on March 27, 2020, 02:21:01 PM
Even if this were true, it still doesn't explain why dozens of other countries have implemented a lockdown. ::)


https://www.businessinsider.com/countries-on-lockdown-coronavirus-italy-2020-3


You really think there's a huge worldwide conspiracy that was carried out in order for US politicians to spend more? ???


You really think Europe, with a solid Healthcare System, implemented extreme measures out of fear and panic? ???


Believe what you wanna believe. I don’t give a fuck.

But don’t expect everybody to buy that the result of this which has been currency printing to the point of the entire GDP of Japan happens without some prior planning and coordination.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Thin Lizzy on March 27, 2020, 02:32:37 PM

Or Governments Know More Than they're Telling us about this CHI NAH Virus from Wuhan Virology Labs   Food Market 🙄 ahh yes of course it is - The Chinese have in 2019 just decided to start eating all manner of dirty filthy types of Food 🙄

Hey, look at that. Right after Japan cancels the Olympics there’s suddenly a surge in corona cases and now there  is going to be a lockdown:

Tokyo governor asks residents to stay home to avoid sharp coronavirus rise | Article [AMP] | Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-tokyo-idUSKBN21C0KW


Gee, I wonder what comes after that?



https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-economy-boj-idUSKBN21C05E

TOKYO (Reuters) - The coronavirus pandemic could plunge Japan into deep economic stagnation, the country's central bankers warned at last week's emergency monetary policy meeting with one seeing room for more stimulus, a summary of their discussion showed on Wednesday.

Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: illuminati on March 27, 2020, 02:35:46 PM
Hey, look at that. Right after Japan cancels the Olympics there’s suddenly a surge in corona cases and now there  is going to be a lockdown:

Tokyo governor asks residents to stay home to avoid sharp coronavirus rise | Article [AMP] | Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-tokyo-idUSKBN21C0KW


Gee, I wonder what comes after that?



https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-economy-boj-idUSKBN21C05E

TOKYO (Reuters) - The coronavirus pandemic could plunge Japan into deep economic stagnation, the country's central bankers warned at last week's emergency monetary policy meeting with one seeing room for more stimulus, a summary of their discussion showed on Wednesday.



Hmm cancel the Olympics & then lockdown the country

Mind I’d not be surprised if Japan Bombed / Nuked China For This Virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: B_B_C on March 27, 2020, 02:46:02 PM

Sure.  ::)  You argue dumb shit all the time. You've posted these same things across multiple threads.  There's nothing about my post that's "intellectually inferior" to what you've, other than the fact that I disagree with you and am willing to go into detail as to why.

think it over
you really need to be an intellectual equal of Lizzy to argue with him
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: SF1900 on March 27, 2020, 02:48:15 PM
Isn't there a middle ground?

I don't think the coronavirus itself was concocted by some shady government organization.

However, I wouldn't be surprised if the government took advantage of an unfortunate situation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Al Doggity on March 27, 2020, 02:56:56 PM
Hey, look at that. Right after Japan cancels the Olympics there’s suddenly a surge in corona cases and now there  is going to be a lockdown:

Tokyo governor asks residents to stay home to avoid sharp coronavirus rise | Article [AMP] | Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-tokyo-idUSKBN21C0KW





It's not at all likely that Japan was sitting on the actual covid19 figures because they were so heavily invested in the olympics. I read that  the majority of their olympic build outs were conceived sustainably and have already been sold with the expected move in dates later this year. It wasn't just a matter of pushing things back a few months for them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Thin Lizzy on March 27, 2020, 02:57:33 PM
Isn't there a middle ground?

I don't think the coronavirus itself was concocted by some shady government organization.

However, I wouldn't be surprised if the government took advantage of an unfortunate situation.

I believe you have it exactly right.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Thin Lizzy on March 27, 2020, 02:59:13 PM
It's not at all likely that Japan was sitting on the actual covid19 figures because they were so heavily invested in the olympics. I read that  the majority of their olympic build outs were conceived sustainably and have already been sold with the expected move in dates later this year. It wasn't just a matter of pushing things back a few months for them.

Neither one of us knows what exactly is going on behind the scenes. I make no claims of that. I just know the end result. Trillions of freshly printed currency. That doesn’t happen by accident.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Al Doggity on March 27, 2020, 03:22:09 PM
Neither one of us knows what exactly is going on behind the scenes. I make no claims of that. I just know the end result. Trillions of freshly printed currency. That doesn’t happen by accident.

The thing is I've always said that. In multiple threads , I've said I can't believe how extreme the reaction has been, but a case can also be made for being overcautious.

On the other hand, you have claimed that you figured out the game in multiple threads. I just don't see it. No matter how much money is printed, shutting down the economy is a net negative. Unfortunately, I'm too stupid to converse with because I'm actually interested in how this  scheme is supposed to work.  It's just everything I'm reading and seeing just contradicts it. Even just the idea that inflation is gonna occur is questionable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Straw Man on March 27, 2020, 03:49:57 PM
Trump may end up STILL being 'spot on' when he said this would be like the flu.

That's gonna be fun to watch.   ;D ;D ;D

and if he's wrong and it's just as deadly as expected then you'll be the first one to piss and moan when everyone gives him the shit he deserves

Germany had wide scale testing in January as did many other countries

Here is what our Traitor in Chief was saying when they were testing



Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: tommywishbone on March 27, 2020, 03:52:51 PM
We certainly have everything on getbig, from millionaires, to MMA experts, a guy that turned down Carmen Electra, medical experts, Bitcoin millionaires, bunny suits, biceps machines, Vince Goodrum PHD CNN MSNBC

Unbelievable getbiggers

Don't forget about me!
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Straw Man on March 27, 2020, 03:53:12 PM
I assume this has already been posted somewhere in this thread

https://reason.com/2020/03/27/no-british-epidemiologist-neil-ferguson-has-not-drastically-downgraded-his-worst-case-projection-of-covid-19-deaths/
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: el numero uno on March 27, 2020, 04:00:20 PM
The thing is I've always said that. In multiple threads , I've said I can't believe how extreme the reaction has been, but a case can also be made for being overcautious.

On the other hand, you have claimed that you figured out the game in multiple threads. I just don't see it. No matter how much money is printed, shutting down the economy is a net negative. Unfortunately, I'm too stupid to converse with because I'm actually interested in how this  scheme is supposed to work.  It's just everything I'm reading and seeing just contradicts it. Even just the idea that inflation is gonna occur is questionable.

He can't debate you because he has no idea what he's talking about.

He just hates to be wrong, and his gut feeling tells him Coronavirus is a hoax. That's all he has to back up his claims.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: el numero uno on March 27, 2020, 04:14:47 PM
I assume this has already been posted somewhere in this thread

https://reason.com/2020/03/27/no-british-epidemiologist-neil-ferguson-has-not-drastically-downgraded-his-worst-case-projection-of-covid-19-deaths/

Funny thing is, even the article that was posted as proof that Coronavirus was a hoax said the same thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Desolate on March 27, 2020, 07:39:30 PM
We certainly have everything on getbig, from millionaires, to MMA experts, a guy that turned down Carmen Electra, medical experts, Bitcoin millionaires, bunny suits, biceps machines, Vince Goodrum PHD CNN MSNBC

Unbelievable getbiggers

I'm not the guy that turned down Carmen Electra.

But I would've turned her down.

I simply can't go where Dennis Rodman has been.

That's just gross.

It's the kind of filth you can never wash off. :P
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: ilalin on March 27, 2020, 07:42:57 PM
Princess L's a kunt. And a stupid one at that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: SOMEPARTS on March 27, 2020, 07:44:16 PM
I assume this has already been posted somewhere in this thread

https://reason.com/2020/03/27/no-british-epidemiologist-neil-ferguson-has-not-drastically-downgraded-his-worst-case-projection-of-covid-19-deaths/



Well, well...we have a sighting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Thin Lizzy on March 27, 2020, 10:48:11 PM
He can't debate you because he has no idea what he's talking about.

He just hates to be wrong, and his gut feeling tells him Coronavirus is a hoax. That's all he has to back up his claims.

Yeah, my instincts have been so off that right after the stimulus bill was passed the Governor of New York is questioning the Quarantine policy when just a few days ago he was talking about keeping people home for 6-9 months:



Coronavirus in NY: Cuomo says quarantine may have backfired in some cases:

https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus/2020/03/coronavirus-in-ny-cuomo-says-quarantine-may-have-backfired-in-some-cases.html

“Isolate people but really isolate the vulnerable people. Don’t isolate everyone because some people, most people, are not vulnerable to it," Cuomo said Monday. “And if you isolate all people you may be actually exposing the more vulnerable people by bringing in a person who is healthier and stronger and who may have been exposed to the virus.”

——————


Don’t worry Uno. In 10 years there will be another crisis and maybe you or Al will be first to diagnose what it’s really about. It took me 19 years of toiling as a journeyman poster before entering the ranks of Getbig legend.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Griffith on March 28, 2020, 01:43:22 AM
Princess L's a kunt. And a stupid one at that.

 ???
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Griffith on March 28, 2020, 01:45:14 AM
The lock downs have been/are being implemented in many countries, not just the US.

Most of Europe and South America is now in quarantine.

Of all countries, only the US is passing a a rescue package.


Most countries in southern Africa as well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Thin Lizzy on March 28, 2020, 03:51:27 AM
Most countries in southern Africa as well.

He’s in denial and beyond help.

In early February, New York City health officials were encouraging people to go to a parade in chinatown. Why? Parades generate tax revenue for the city and state. In fact, the mayor of New York City was very slow to cancel the St. Patrick’s Day parade and did not do so until a week before.

Then everything changed. Word got out about the federal stimulus. Then the politicians in New York shifted towards ginning up fear and hysteria so they could get the biggest windfall for the state. Thus, the governor of New York talking about corona being a 6 to 9 month ordeal. It worked. I got an email from my congresswoman. New York State got 40 billion of the stimulus money. Now, the financial incentives change again. People need to go back to work and start generating tax revenue. So, the governor is now saying that the quarantine measures were overdone and only the elderly need to be isolated. The elderly for the most part don’t work anyway.

Just follow the money. It never fails.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Al Doggity on March 28, 2020, 06:45:23 AM
In early February, New York City health officials were encouraging people to go to a parade in chinatown. Why? Parades generate tax revenue for the city and state. In fact, the mayor of New York City was very slow to cancel the St. Patrick’s Day parade and did not do so until a week before.

Then everything changed. Word got out about the federal stimulus. Then the politicians in New York shifted towards ginning up fear and hysteria so they could get the biggest windfall for the state. Thus, the governor of New York talking about corona being a 6 to 9 month ordeal. It worked. I got an email from my congresswoman. New York State got 40 billion of the stimulus money. Now, the financial incentives change again. People need to go back to work and start generating tax revenue. So, the governor is now saying that the quarantine measures were overdone and only the elderly need to be isolated. The elderly for the most part don’t work anyway.

Just follow the money. It never fails.

This link is the timeline for covid19 confirmations in NYC:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_New_York_(state)#Timeline

In early February, there were no new york area infections. The first confirmed case was on March 1st. By March 20, the day Cuomo's shelter in place order was issued, there were 10,000 confirmed cases and nearly 60 deaths. I'm no getbig legend, but I would bet that played at least a small part in why ny politicians changed their tune. Cuomo is still claiming that new york will be out of hospital space in a few days and that the peak is still a few weeks away.

Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: pamith on March 28, 2020, 07:01:15 AM
Trump may end up STILL being 'spot on' when he said this would be like the flu.

That's gonna be fun to watch.   ;D ;D ;D
Lol omg
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Thin Lizzy on March 28, 2020, 07:35:07 AM
This link is the timeline for covid19 confirmations in NYC:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_New_York_(state)#Timeline

In early February, there were no new york area infections. The first confirmed case was on March 1st. By March 20, the day Cuomo's shelter in place order was issued, there were 10,000 confirmed cases and nearly 60 deaths. I'm no getbig legend, but I would bet that played at least a small part in why ny politicians changed their tune. Cuomo is still claiming that new york will be out of hospital space in a few days and that the peak is still a few weeks away.



I watched Tucker Carlson last night. He slammed into the New York health commissioner for putting lives at risk. He showed a clip where she said that if corona was so easily spread by casual contact there would’ve been more infections. This was in February. I agree with her.  If symptoms start to show in 5 to 14 days, and there were no precautions taken until March, why was there no spike in Corona related hospitalizations in December, January and February, the peak flu season months? Or was there one but the health commissioner didn’t hear about it?

Congrats you’re on the same side as Fox News:💪


Tucker Carlson slams NYC leaders for 'endangering' public in early stages of coronavirus pandemic | Fox News

https://www.foxnews.com/media/tucker-carlson-nyc-leaders-endangering-public-coronavirus


Carlson criticized New York City health commissioner Dr. Oxiris Barbot, among others, who dismissed the incoming threat of the coronavirus in February.


"The risk to New Yorkers from coronavirus is low and ... our preparedness as a city is very high," Barbot said at a Feb. 2 press conference supporting the Chinatown Lunar New Year Parade and Festival. "There is no reason not to take the subway, not to take a bus, not to go out to your favorite restaurant and certainly not to miss the parade next Sunday [Feb. 9]."
"Future generations are gonna watch that video with their jaws open in disbelief," Carlson said in response to Barbot. "How could someone charged with protecting public health so recklessly endanger it?"
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Al Doggity on March 28, 2020, 08:03:43 AM

Congrats you’re on the same side as Fox News:💪


Tucker Carlson slams NYC leaders for 'endangering' public in early stages of coronavirus pandemic | Fox News


"Future generations are gonna watch that video with their jaws open in disbelief," Carlson said in response to Barbot.

Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Thin Lizzy on March 28, 2020, 08:11:23 AM




You just made my point. Fox is currently going along with the establishment program. They fired one of the hottest women on that network, Trish Regan, for going off script.


Do you have an answer for this, or can you for once concede, that maybe, just maybe I might have a point?


“If symptoms start to show in 5 to 14 days, and there were no precautions taken until March, why was there no spike in Corona related hospitalizations in December, January and February, the peak flu season months? Or was there one but the health commissioner didn’t hear about it?”
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: el numero uno on March 28, 2020, 01:15:08 PM

Do you have an answer for this, or can you for once concede, that maybe, just maybe I might have a point?


“If symptoms start to show in 5 to 14 days, and there were no precautions taken until March, why was there no spike in Corona related hospitalizations in December, January and February, the peak flu season months? Or was there one but the health commissioner didn’t hear about it?”

Because first confirmed case was on March 1st? ???
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Thin Lizzy on March 28, 2020, 01:30:11 PM
Because first confirmed case was on March 1st? ???

Are you for real?

NYC went through three months with no restrictions whatsoever. If this is such a deadly virus that spreads so easily why was there no spike in hospitalizations during that time? And why was the first confirmed case on March 1? You can’t have it both ways.

It’s unbelievable the gyrations people will go through to not admit they’re wrong. That Fox news has the same position as you give you any pause at all? One of the hosts, Trish Regan, had something similar to my position and she got fired for it.

Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: illuminati on March 28, 2020, 01:45:12 PM
Are you for real?

NYC went through three months with no restrictions whatsoever. If this is such a deadly virus that spreads so easily why was there no spike in hospitalizations during that time? And why was the first confirmed case on March 1? You can’t have it both ways.

It’s unbelievable the gyrations people will go through to not admit they’re wrong. That Fox news has the same position as you give you any pause at all? One of the hosts, Trish Regan, had something similar to my position and she got fired for it.



Has she said any more ?
Why would they get rid of her - just for not following the script.

I still think there’s a lot we Not being told about 1, what’s going on 2, This Virus - is it Man Made
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: el numero uno on March 28, 2020, 01:52:52 PM
Are you for real?

NYC went through three months with no restrictions whatsoever. If this is such a deadly virus that spreads so easily why was there no spike in hospitalizations during that time? And why was the first confirmed case on March 1? You can’t have it both ways.

It’s unbelievable the gyrations people will go through to not admit they’re wrong. That Fox news has the same position as you give you any pause at all? One of the hosts, Trish Regan, had something similar to my position and she got fired for it.




Wuhan's first confirmed case was on December.  You're assuming it spread onto NYC immediately.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: SOMEPARTS on March 28, 2020, 02:02:44 PM
Because first confirmed case was on March 1st? ???


(https://media0.giphy.com/media/5xtDarwlnNgxVN2oO0U/giphy.gif)



FFS
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Thin Lizzy on March 28, 2020, 02:04:35 PM
Has she said any more ?
Why would they get rid of her - just for not following the script.

I still think there’s a lot we Not being told about 1, what’s going on 2, This Virus - is it Man Made

The man-made stuff starts to get into tinfoil hat territory, not that it’s impossible. The massive coordinated currency devaluation and stimulus is a fact.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Al Doggity on March 28, 2020, 02:18:15 PM
It’s unbelievable the gyrations people will go through to not admit they’re wrong. That Fox news has the same position as you give you any pause at all? One of the hosts, Trish Regan, had something similar to my position and she got fired for it.



No. You have said that the world's politicians, governments, business leaders, media, etc (presumably Trump was included in that) are colluding to revalue all the currency in the world. She specifically said that Democrats are using reaction to covid19 to impeach Donald Trump. Just because those two positions are skeptical of coronavirus reactions doesn't mean they are along the same lines. Unless, at this point, your  laying it out as "For Corona" or "Against Corona" and anyone who has any reservations about how it's being handled are all basically in the same boat.

And if anything, she got fired for reading the script too closely. She didn't leave herself any room for plausible deniability when things inevitably proved otherwise.

Did you actually watch that Fox video I posted? It's not just Fox anchors proving they are part of your global conspiracy, it's actually them completely changing positions, in some cases complete 180s in under a week. Their flips line up with the growth pattern of the corona virus.




Do you have an answer for this, or can you for once concede, that maybe, just maybe I might have a point?


“If symptoms start to show in 5 to 14 days, and there were no precautions taken until March, why was there no spike in Corona related hospitalizations in December, January and February, the peak flu season months? Or was there one but the health commissioner didn’t hear about it?”

It was a newly discovered virus that first appeared on the other side of the world for which there weren't any reliable tests. How is it shocking that confirmed cases took time to appear? How is it shocking that gov would try to maintain life as normal, as opposed to instituting a complete economic shutdown at the thought that a case might appear someday? In february, the medical eggheads were still trying to figure out how it spread, etc.


Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Al Doggity on March 28, 2020, 02:22:53 PM
Today's NY Times:
The Lost Month: How A Failure To Test Blindsided The US  To Covid 19
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/us/testing-coronavirus-pandemic.html




Also, in another sign that politicians are doing a complete about face following the passage of the stimulus bill, Trump says they're considering an enforceable quarantine for New York:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-considering-enforceable-quarantine-n-y-parts-n-j-connecticut-n1171186
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: el numero uno on March 28, 2020, 03:05:43 PM

(https://media0.giphy.com/media/5xtDarwlnNgxVN2oO0U/giphy.gif)



FFS

LOL. There's no way to know with accuracy when the virus arrived in NYC.

Thinking it's a hoax because we didn't see any spike in cases the months before it's first detection it's nonsense.

As for March, we're seeing the beginning of the spike. There was 1 confirmed case on NYC on March 1st. Right now there are around 29k confirmed cases. That's a growth factor of 1.47 per day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Thin Lizzy on March 28, 2020, 03:19:44 PM

(https://media0.giphy.com/media/5xtDarwlnNgxVN2oO0U/giphy.gif)



FFS

Apparently, it’s a fast-moving virus that takes its time.🤔
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Flexacon on March 28, 2020, 03:28:29 PM
Apparently, it’s a fast-moving virus that takes its time.🤔

You need to understand exponential growth in order to gain a full understanding of how it spreads.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Thin Lizzy on March 28, 2020, 03:41:22 PM

(https://media0.giphy.com/media/5xtDarwlnNgxVN2oO0U/giphy.gif)



FFS

Your analysis in another thread was spot on. As long as there is a fiat money system we’re going to have these crises every 10 years. In the 80s it was the crash and the AIDs panic. 10 years later it was the dot com bust. 10 years after that the real estate financial meltdown. Now it’s corona. In 10 years it’ll be something else.


You need to understand exponential growth in order to gain a full understanding of how it spreads.

You need to read some books on Austrian economics and learn how financial markets work.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Flexacon on March 28, 2020, 04:00:13 PM
Your analysis in another thread was spot on. As long as there is a fiat money system we’re going to have these crises every 10 years. In the 80s it was the crash and the AIDs panic. 10 years later it was the dot com bust. 10 years after that the real estate financial meltdown. Now it’s corona. In 10 years it’ll be something else.


You need to read some books on Austrian economics and learn how financial markets work.

I'd rather take advice from Princess L or gib than someone who doesn't know that not all types of growth are linear.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: el numero uno on March 28, 2020, 04:01:51 PM
Apparently, it’s a fast-moving virus that takes its time.🤔

Actually, it is.

(https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/SKKKKTTT.png?itok=JeR7RAdZ)
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Army of One on March 28, 2020, 04:02:26 PM
Apparently, it’s a fast-moving virus that takes its time.🤔

2 months to get to 10k deaths, 10 days to get to 20k.How much faster do you want it to be growing?Did Bill Gates start Microsoft  from a garage and within a week was worth 600 billion?
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: el numero uno on March 28, 2020, 04:04:19 PM
2 months to get to 10k deaths, 10 days to get to 20k.How much faster do you want it to be growing?Did Bill Gates start Microsoft  from a garage and within a week was worth 600 billion?

At this point, Thin Lizzy is right up there with Wigg's or SuckMyMuscle's level of delusion.

No fact will ever change his mind.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: el numero uno on March 28, 2020, 04:08:13 PM
Your analysis in another thread was spot on. As long as there is a fiat money system we’re going to have these crises every 10 years. In the 80s it was the crash and the AIDs panic. 10 years later it was the dot com bust. 10 years after that the real estate financial meltdown. Now it’s corona. In 10 years it’ll be something else.


Yep, this settles it.

This guy has been wearing a tin foil hat the whole time.

I'm done arguing with him.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Mayday on March 28, 2020, 04:13:52 PM
Your analysis in another thread was spot on. As long as there is a fiat money system we’re going to have these crises every 10 years.

A fixed, non-expanding monetary system is not the answer either. Interest cannot exist in that environment because all money would ultimately end up with the lenders.

Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Thin Lizzy on March 28, 2020, 04:14:02 PM
At this point, Thin Lizzy is right up there with Wigg's or SuckMyMuscle's level of delusion.

No fact will ever change his mind.

Yawn, the decisions have already made about how to restart the economy. It’s a done deal. From here on in it’s just a dog and pony show. The deed has been done. The banks got their quantitative easing, the political class got their stimulus and the rest of us got a few crumbs.

And you, you’re just a fucking Mark.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Thin Lizzy on March 28, 2020, 05:36:19 PM
if the deal is done why all the ocd posts ?

The same reason you post here. Boredom.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Methyl m1ke on March 29, 2020, 01:30:52 AM

Wuhan's first confirmed case was on December.  You're assuming it spread onto NYC immediately.

It does not take a genius to put 2 plus 2 together here-highly communicable virus (never before seen in humans mind you) + global travel= ummm hmm what DOES that equal?

Do you presume our country is run by idiots or is there just a slight chance the powers that be had a pretty strong feeling the virus would make it's way over the pond?

Don't even get me started with "the first confirmed" anything, as if we need a stupid test to inform us that the virus has in fact landed and is infecting people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Methyl m1ke on March 29, 2020, 01:48:48 AM
The man-made stuff starts to get into tinfoil hat territory, not that it’s impossible. The massive coordinated currency devaluation and stimulus is a fact.

I watched a video maybe 1.5 months ago from a Chinese journalist and she had documentation (and a bit of speculation) stating that the virus was in fact created in a lab, on purpose, but not as a bioweapon. It seems a Chinese researcher tasked with studying viral threats to the public in china published a paper over a year ago stating she had been studying corona viruses and had identified (of the 400 types of corona viruses that bats carry) a specific strain that showed high risk of jumping species and infecting people. I don't remember EXACTLY the rest but I recall it going something like the US and another country (Canada?) sent a team of 4 researchers (8 total 4 from the US 4 from the other country) to Wuhan to study and assess the risk that this virus posed to the population. I believe the Chinese researcher synthesized the virus covid19 so that it could be studied and we could potentially figure out how to beat it to stay ahead of mother nature. After some time 6 months maybe the American researchers came back to the states and their conclusion was that the threat was real and they stated there was a "high probability" that in the near future a virus could escape from facility in Wuhan citing poor security and safety protocol. The level 4 bio whatever lab in Wuhan everyone talks about is not actually a bioweapons lab, it's just a lab to study whatever it is that they study. But it's not specifically a weapons lab I do not believe.

So anyway, it sounds a lot to me like some idiot didn't take proper precautions and got infected and the virus spread from there. Opportunistic politicians have obviously allowed it to spread to basically rob us (that's how it seems.) I have a funny feeling Trump and his friends are going to benefit greatly from the "stimulus" meanwhile the average American is barely getting a few pennies that we already have lost due to not being able to work and from mental stress from hearing about this stupid shit EVERY MINUTE OF EVERY DAY on the televisions we are essentially being forced to sit in front of all fucking day long.

I am also incredibly suspicious because the US was just enjoying a booming economy and everything was great! Ripe for the picking eh Washington? Too good to be true...the whole thing makes me sicker than the actual virus boogeyman we're being told lurks around every corner.

WASH YOUR HANDS AND STAY AWAY FROM OTHER PEOPLE STOP COVID19!

what a load of shit.

The part that nobody seems to want to talk about - this 2 trillion dollar stimulus, the federal reserve must be loving this. At what interest rate is the money we are being told is so desperately being printed going to be paid back? How many millions or billions of American taxpayer dollars is being extorted/stolen from us right before our eyes? And what are we doing? SITTING AT HOME BEING SPOON FED FEAR AND MISTRUST FOR THE PEOPLE AROUND US, meanwhile the real criminals are laughing all the way to the bank.

The whole thing stinks and I doubt trump has any interest in being re-elected. Hes coming across to me more like a dirtbag by the minute. It's like the powers that be can't figure out how to get another war going so they settled on a viral boogeyman instead. "why do the poor always fight the wars?" comes to mind, only now it's a virus instead of some nefarious dictator someplace that we wouldn't give a shit about if it weren't for our blessed media and honorable uncorrupt elected officials shoving it down our throats. But it won't be trumps kids fighting overseas or sitting in the hospital on a ventilator no sir. That just wouldn't be American.

The kicker-we could have Hillary Clinton running the show instead of Trump. I mean...I know they say a nation gets the leader it deservers, but do we really deserve this?
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: illuminati on March 29, 2020, 04:08:37 AM
I watched a video maybe 1.5 months ago from a Chinese journalist and she had documentation (and a bit of speculation) stating that the virus was in fact created in a lab, on purpose, but not as a bioweapon. It seems a Chinese researcher tasked with studying viral threats to the public in china published a paper over a year ago stating she had been studying corona viruses and had identified (of the 400 types of corona viruses that bats carry) a specific strain that showed high risk of jumping species and infecting people. I don't remember EXACTLY the rest but I recall it going something like the US and another country (Canada?) sent a team of 4 researchers (8 total 4 from the US 4 from the other country) to Wuhan to study and assess the risk that this virus posed to the population. I believe the Chinese researcher synthesized the virus covid19 so that it could be studied and we could potentially figure out how to beat it to stay ahead of mother nature. After some time 6 months maybe the American researchers came back to the states and their conclusion was that the threat was real and they stated there was a "high probability" that in the near future a virus could escape from facility in Wuhan citing poor security and safety protocol. The level 4 bio whatever lab in Wuhan everyone talks about is not actually a bioweapons lab, it's just a lab to study whatever it is that they study. But it's not specifically a weapons lab I do not believe.

So anyway, it sounds a lot to me like some idiot didn't take proper precautions and got infected and the virus spread from there. Opportunistic politicians have obviously allowed it to spread to basically rob us (that's how it seems.) I have a funny feeling Trump and his friends are going to benefit greatly from the "stimulus" meanwhile the average American is barely getting a few pennies that we already have lost due to not being able to work and from mental stress from hearing about this stupid shit EVERY MINUTE OF EVERY DAY on the televisions we are essentially being forced to sit in front of all fucking day long.

I am also incredibly suspicious because the US was just enjoying a booming economy and everything was great! Ripe for the picking eh Washington? Too good to be true...the whole thing makes me sicker than the actual virus boogeyman we're being told lurks around every corner.

WASH YOUR HANDS AND STAY AWAY FROM OTHER PEOPLE STOP COVID19!

what a load of shit.

The part that nobody seems to want to talk about - this 2 trillion dollar stimulus, the federal reserve must be loving this. At what interest rate is the money we are being told is so desperately being printed going to be paid back? How many millions or billions of American taxpayer dollars is being extorted/stolen from us right before our eyes? And what are we doing? SITTING AT HOME BEING SPOON FED FEAR AND MISTRUST FOR THE PEOPLE AROUND US, meanwhile the real criminals are laughing all the way to the bank.

The whole thing stinks and I doubt trump has any interest in being re-elected. Hes coming across to me more like a dirtbag by the minute. It's like the powers that be can't figure out how to get another war going so they settled on a viral boogeyman instead. "why do the poor always fight the wars?" comes to mind, only now it's a virus instead of some nefarious dictator someplace that we wouldn't give a shit about if it weren't for our blessed media and honorable uncorrupt elected officials shoving it down our throats. But it won't be trumps kids fighting overseas or sitting in the hospital on a ventilator no sir. That just wouldn't be American.

The kicker-we could have Hillary Clinton running the show instead of Trump. I mean...I know they say a nation gets the leader it deservers, but do we really deserve this?


Partially agree with most of what you say.
Only the economic situation isn’t just in America - it’s Hitting Many Many Countries
So I Very Much Doubt that it’s a Donald Trump Scam unless all the other Governments
Are Scaming also.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Army of One on March 29, 2020, 05:38:26 AM

Partially agree with most of what you say.
Only the economic situation isn’t just in America - it’s Hitting Many Many Countries
So I Very Much Doubt that it’s a Donald Trump Scam unless all the other Governments
Are Scaming also.

It would take hundreds of thousands of people to be in on this conspiracy...and the president can't even get a blowjob without the world knowing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: illuminati on March 29, 2020, 07:07:42 AM
It would take hundreds of thousands of people to be in on this conspiracy...and the president can't even get a blowjob without the world knowing.


Ha ha ha .
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: IroNat on March 29, 2020, 07:12:27 AM
It would take hundreds of thousands of people to be in on this conspiracy...and the president can't even get a blowjob without the world knowing.

(https://img.buzzfeed.com/buzzfeed-static/static/2014-05/enhanced/webdr06/20/12/anigif_enhanced-20786-1400603710-9.gif)
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Thin Lizzy on March 29, 2020, 07:18:43 AM

Partially agree with most of what you say.
Only the economic situation isn’t just in America - it’s Hitting Many Many Countries
So I Very Much Doubt that it’s a Donald Trump Scam unless all the other Governments
Are Scaming also.

The best thing you could read to learn what this is really about is what the government has done to our money by Murray Rothbard. Written in 1963, he predicts a single European currency which didn’t happen until 1999.


“ Already the world’s major Central Banks are attempt- ing to “coordinate” monetary and economic policies, harmonize rates of inflation, and fix exchange rates. The militant drive for a European paper currency issued by a European Central Bank seems on the verge of success”
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Notomorrow on March 29, 2020, 12:38:17 PM
Everybody will be immune once we all get this bad cold for a couple weeks and come out fine. Just protect your grandparents.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Flexacon on March 29, 2020, 12:50:51 PM
Everybody will be immune once we all get this bad cold for a couple weeks and come out fine. Just protect your grandparents.

If you have poorly controlled diabetes, hypertension, respiratory issues, heart disease or even anaemic vegans then chances are you won't come out fine without having to seek medical assistance.

If you have healthy grandparents however they will be fine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus Model WAS WRONG & Drastically Downgrades Projection
Post by: Necrosis on March 29, 2020, 01:01:04 PM
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/29/nation/fauci-predicts-millions-coronavirus-cases-us-more-than-100000-deaths/
Title: Your state and covid19 deaths is basically a ratio of 1 in 10,000 people that di
Post by: Marty Champions on April 03, 2020, 04:17:07 AM
So why cant people do math that is a very low chance youl die from it
Title: Re: Your state and covid19 deaths is basically a ratio of 1 in 10,000 people that di
Post by: joswift on April 03, 2020, 04:26:01 AM
You have a 1 in 444 chance of dying from Covid19 as opposed to something else..
Title: Re: Your state and covid19 deaths is basically a ratio of 1 in 10,000 people that di
Post by: Marty Champions on April 03, 2020, 04:44:07 AM
You have a 1 in 444 chance of dying from Covid19 as opposed to something else..
wrong its 1 in 10,000
Title: Re: Your state and covid19 deaths is basically a ratio of 1 in 10,000 people that di
Post by: Hypertrophy on April 03, 2020, 08:40:53 AM
You have a 1 in 444 chance of dying from Covid19 as opposed to something else..

I'm sure that will be corrected to 1 in 444,444 once the death stats are corrected, lol. Right now if you have Covid19 but die of a heart attack many hospitals are attributing it to Covid19
Title: Re: Your state and covid19 deaths is basically a ratio of 1 in 10,000 people that di
Post by: joswift on April 03, 2020, 08:43:49 AM
https://www.besthealthdegrees.com/health-risks/
Title: Re: Your state and covid19 deaths is basically a ratio of 1 in 10,000 people that di
Post by: El Diablo Blanco on April 03, 2020, 08:45:31 AM
Tests are only being done on those with severe symptoms.  Estimation is more than 50% who get it will show no symptoms so they'll never get tested.  Thoughts are there are tens of millions who've been infected but either got sick and fought through it without knowing they had it or those who had no effects.



So the death rate is actually wayyyy lower.
Title: Re: Your state and covid19 deaths is basically a ratio of 1 in 10,000 people that di
Post by: painfull86 on April 03, 2020, 08:46:30 AM
So why cant people do math that is a very low chance youl die from it

You my friend


Are a retard.



It's not your fault.
Title: Re: Your state and covid19 deaths is basically a ratio of 1 in 10,000 people that di
Post by: Darren Avey on April 03, 2020, 09:12:14 AM
7.5 billion people
55,000 deaths
Title: Re: Your state and covid19 deaths is basically a ratio of 1 in 10,000 people that di
Post by: Marty Champions on April 03, 2020, 10:06:13 AM
7.5 billion people
55,000 deaths
.01 percent like 1 in 10,000 ded bro
Title: Re: Your state and covid19 deaths is basically a ratio of 1 in 10,000 people that di
Post by: painfull86 on April 03, 2020, 10:13:47 AM
.01 percent like 1 in 10,000 ded bro

Math major here
Title: Re: Your state and covid19 deaths is basically a ratio of 1 in 10,000 people that di
Post by: joswift on April 03, 2020, 10:14:31 AM
.01 percent like 1 in 10,000 ded bro

500,000 people, die in the UK every year
Title: Re: Your state and covid19 deaths is basically a ratio of 1 in 10,000 people that di
Post by: painfull86 on April 03, 2020, 10:16:15 AM
500,000 people, die in the UK every year

Do you think this blown out of proportion?

Theres doctors and nurses dying
Title: Re: Your state and covid19 deaths is basically a ratio of 1 in 10,000 people that di
Post by: friedchickendinner on April 03, 2020, 10:21:06 AM
Maybe there are other concerns than you personally dying from it.

Maybe it's not all about you?
Title: Re: Your state and covid19 deaths is basically a ratio of 1 in 10,000 people that di
Post by: Notomorrow on April 03, 2020, 08:25:45 PM
We protect the elderly in civilized society. Animals say "fuck em, let em die, more for me". We are not animals despite all the modern evidence to the contrary.