Absolutely. Especially no. 1. National elections are a beauty contest. Obama's 2004 speech at the Democrat convention thrust him into the national spotlight. His ability to read a teleprompter so well really galvanized a lot of people. I was even intrigued, until I actually listened to what he had to say. Obama will not be able to get away with that this time around.
But it's just an unfortunate fact that presence is a huge component. People who can deliver have a much easier time gaining followers.
If you are right, then that is very sad about the state of the democratic process.
But I believe that even if you remove your reasons why you believe Ron Paul does not have a chance, his chances would still be low because of his honesty, because he does not bow down to corporations and because his says what he believes is right even if it's unpopular.
I believe it will be very hard for Ron Paul to become a presidential candidate, but still definitely possible.
If Ron Paul is not the next US president, then Americans should prepare for just more of the same crap.