It's going to come down to weather - I think huck said it.
If the sun is shining, the people who 'settled' for Mitt might come out and vote for him.
If it's shitty and cold and nasty on Jan 3 in Iowa, people who aren't enthusiastic anyway will stay home.
Ron Paul supporters would crawl thru a mile of glass to vote for him, particularly if they have hope he can win.
RP supporters have always liked his message, but always kinda knew he couldn't win. Now? They're already shitting on Iowa AND new hampshire as not mattering lol...