Author Topic: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!  (Read 1766532 times)

Griffith

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10800 on: April 29, 2024, 11:30:43 AM »
2 years from now btc will be over 100k

More like this year.

obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10801 on: April 29, 2024, 12:19:52 PM »
I think you are really confusing concepts here Obsidian. (Can I suggest maybe watching a few less youtube videos, and actually doing some legal research).

The term "securities" as it applies to the law the SEC enforces, has nothing to do with IT security. Rather is has to do with laws that govern fungible and publicly tradable financial instruments.

You are also misunderstanding what the role of the SEC is. It is not "to protect investors". Indeed, investors can, and do, make bad investments every day with SEC compliant securities. The SEC makes no decision on the merit of any investment. More accurate would be to say that the SEC's role is to regulate securities markets, as it is required by law to do, (and that this in turn, hopefully, will "protect" investors, to the extent that certain the many aspects of securities' laws need to be complied with). So, the SEC could not care less if BTC goes up or down. But it cares deeply, if you were to attempt to list any security in an unregulated matter (as occurred with almost all crypto tokens). Its not a matter of whether you like the law or not - the law is the law and the SEC enforces.

So, you don't need to make any argument against me. I am just telling you what the law is.

As for BTC being "pre-mined", it wasn't. All of us, Satoshi included, had to put in equal work to mine Sats. That was the case from day #1 of the code going public. And that differs from ETH any many others, whereby the creators of what was essentially a tech company, raised funds for their "projects" (businesses), by issuing tradable "tokens" (shares) and retaining a share of these shares for themselves, selling on the market for for BTC or fait over time.

With BTC, the work is done by the miners. They have converted energy into Sats. And those Sats can the be bought and traded by others. And this was the case from day #1. No security here - rather a digital commodity.

As for your comments about staking and deflationary etc, all this is a scam. If I sell you a piece of shit, and then tell you its "good value" because in a few days I will give you a brand new more of a turd for free, that does not change the fact that the underlying thing you have is a piece of shit. Similarly, if I told you that that piece of shit was going to gradually decompose, and become a small piece of shit over time... it doesn't matter - its still a piece of shit! Its really a very obvious marketing illusion.

Eth, can and will, be replaced any an infinite number of "alts" to Eth. However, there is not any "alt" to BTC - there can't be, as BTC cannot be recreated, nor can it be uncreated. It takes a while for people to truly understand, but eventually they do...
One of the SEC's main focus is investor protection:

The SEC has a three-part mission: to protect investors; maintain fair, orderly, and efficient markets; and facilitate capital formation.[8]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Securities_and_Exchange_Commission

But it is corrupt as are many government departments. Gensler met with fellow tribesman SBF many times. And did nothing to prevent that scam which ended up hurting investors. Which is why a few politicians want him axed.

Satoshi was the first guy to mine BTC quickly, over 1 million. If there were many other miners it would not have been possible to accrue that many BTC because of difficulty adjustments. It also took time for word to get out and other people to start mining BTC. So yeah, whomever Satoshi is dominated the hashrate and hence got all that BTC. So it is basically no different than pre-mining.

https://eklitzke.org/how-many-bitcoins-did-satoshi-nakamoto-mine

The genesis block was mined on January 3, 2009. For the next six months or so, the Bitcoin hash rate stayed very constant, at around 5 MH/s. There was a dip in network hash rate for a short time after that, and then the hash rate started picking up quickly around Christmas. I've included a few extra months of 2010 data to show how dramatic the increase in hash rate was.

Note that a hashrate of 5 MH/s is extremely low. I have two RTX 3090 cards and they each have a hash rate of 120 MH/s. Even the 1070TI comes in at around 34 MH/s. This means one of my RTX 3090s can hash 24 times the total hash rate of the early BTC when Satoshi mined it!

Most of the blocks mined in 2009 have very few transactions in them. The majority of them just include a single coinbase transaction, which is the required transaction encoding payout of the block reward to the miner. Coupled with the anemic hash rate, we can speculate that there were very few users of Bitcoin in 2009. It's known that a few enthusiasts like [Hal Finney](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hal_Finney_(computer_scientist)) (the first user of Bitcoin) downloaded and ran Satoshi's code. Hal previously stated that he actually mined one of the first 100 blocks. But there's no evidence that any of these early adopters, including Hal, did much more than run the code for a short time before losing interest.

In fact, things were so dire that for most of 2009 blocks were being mined much slower than the 10 minute block interval target. You can click "Block Interval" in the chart legend to see the average block interval in each period. The goal block interval is 600 seconds. It wasn't until the final difficulty period in 2009 (which started at block 32256, mined Dec 30, 2009) that the difficulty target had to be adjusted upwards from the minimum value.

Based on the above, I find it reasonable to assume that most of the hashing power in the first year or so of Bitcoin's existence came from Satoshi Nakamoto. If real users were actually joining and leaving Bitcoin, one would expect the hash rate to have varied a lot more, particularly in the first six months. Starting in early 2010 the network hash rate does start increasing rapidly, suggesting that's when the real serious users started using (and mining) Bitcoin.

obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10802 on: April 29, 2024, 12:29:26 PM »
As for your comments about staking and deflationary etc, all this is a scam. If I sell you a piece of shit, and then tell you its "good value" because in a few days I will give you a brand new more of a turd for free, that does not change the fact that the underlying thing you have is a piece of shit. Similarly, if I told you that that piece of shit was going to gradually decompose, and become a small piece of shit over time... it doesn't matter - its still a piece of shit! Its really a very obvious marketing illusion.

Eth, can and will, be replaced any an infinite number of "alts" to Eth. However, there is not any "alt" to BTC - there can't be, as BTC cannot be recreated, nor can it be uncreated. It takes a while for people to truly understand, but eventually they do...
That's your opinion. You're saying it is a piece of shit. That does not mean it's a piece of shit. An entire industry has been built on Ethereum. Ethereum's influence on the crypto sphere totally dwarves Bitcoin in every way. Bitcoin developers are now pushing for DEFI and Smart Contracts - they are copycats. It's the Ethereum developers that are responsible for DEFI / Smart Contracts. And many of them were involved with the early Bitcoin, including Vitalik.

https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2024/04/24/op-cat-proposal-to-bring-smart-contracts-to-bitcoin-finally-gets-a-bip-number/

BTC can be recreated, what the hell are you talking about. It's just code. And nothing can be uncreated - unless you have a time machine. If you create a sand castle on a beach it has been created. You can destroy it, but that initial creation cannot be undone.

I am not against Bitcoin. I think all these platforms and networks need to work together. What I don't like about BTC Maxi's is they want to sic the SEC and government on all other crypto projects so Bitcoin can be made the defacto winner. Make it an even playing field. Stop trying to sic your dogs on other people and if you come out on top in the end then congrats to you.

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10803 on: April 29, 2024, 12:29:30 PM »
One of the SEC's main focus is investor protection:

The SEC has a three-part mission: to protect investors; maintain fair, orderly, and efficient markets; and facilitate capital formation.[8]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Securities_and_Exchange_Commission

But it is corrupt as are many government departments. Gensler met with fellow tribesman SBF many times. And did nothing to prevent that scam which ended up hurting investors. Which is why a few politicians want him axed.

Satoshi was the first guy to mine BTC quickly, over 1 million. If there were many other miners it would not have been possible to accrue that many BTC because of difficulty adjustments. It also took time for word to get out and other people to start mining BTC. So yeah, whomever Satoshi is dominated the hashrate and hence got all that BTC. So it is basically no different than pre-mining.

https://eklitzke.org/how-many-bitcoins-did-satoshi-nakamoto-mine

The genesis block was mined on January 3, 2009. For the next six months or so, the Bitcoin hash rate stayed very constant, at around 5 MH/s. There was a dip in network hash rate for a short time after that, and then the hash rate started picking up quickly around Christmas. I've included a few extra months of 2010 data to show how dramatic the increase in hash rate was.

Note that a hashrate of 5 MH/s is extremely low. I have two RTX 3090 cards and they each have a hash rate of 120 MH/s. Even the 1070TI comes in at around 34 MH/s. This means one of my RTX 3090s can hash 24 times the total hash rate of the early BTC when Satoshi mined it!

Most of the blocks mined in 2009 have very few transactions in them. The majority of them just include a single coinbase transaction, which is the required transaction encoding payout of the block reward to the miner. Coupled with the anemic hash rate, we can speculate that there were very few users of Bitcoin in 2009. It's known that a few enthusiasts like [Hal Finney](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hal_Finney_(computer_scientist)) (the first user of Bitcoin) downloaded and ran Satoshi's code. Hal previously stated that he actually mined one of the first 100 blocks. But there's no evidence that any of these early adopters, including Hal, did much more than run the code for a short time before losing interest.

In fact, things were so dire that for most of 2009 blocks were being mined much slower than the 10 minute block interval target. You can click "Block Interval" in the chart legend to see the average block interval in each period. The goal block interval is 600 seconds. It wasn't until the final difficulty period in 2009 (which started at block 32256, mined Dec 30, 2009) that the difficulty target had to be adjusted upwards from the minimum value.

Based on the above, I find it reasonable to assume that most of the hashing power in the first year or so of Bitcoin's existence came from Satoshi Nakamoto. If real users were actually joining and leaving Bitcoin, one would expect the hash rate to have varied a lot more, particularly in the first six months. Starting in early 2010 the network hash rate does start increasing rapidly, suggesting that's when the real serious users started using (and mining) Bitcoin.

You are right about all of this, although I would say the "protection" mandate of the SEC, is to protect by enforcing the applicable laws, using the powers given to them.

You may consider BTC's early blocks as being a distinction from a pre-mine, but technically there is a difference. The code was public, and anyone could in theory mine, and just like today, some mine, and other don't, even though all in theory can. So I see the "argument", but again, technically its wrong to state that ETH and BTC are the same on this basis, even though in practice you may think this distinction is unfair. Lets see what the courts rule.

obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10804 on: April 29, 2024, 12:40:33 PM »
You are right about all of this, although I would say the "protection" mandate of the SEC, is to protect by enforcing the applicable laws, using the powers given to them.

You may consider BTC's early blocks as being a distinction from a pre-mine, but technically there is a difference. The code was public, and anyone could in theory mine, and just like today, some mine, and other don't, even though all in theory can. So I see the "argument", but again, technically its wrong to state that ETH and BTC are the same on this basis, even though in practice you may think this distinction is unfair. Lets see what the courts rule.
I am not saying they are the same. But it is really semantics. And the reality is most of my Ethereum I acquired via mining. Lots of sweat equity went into it. We suffered through hot days, two outlets melted over the years, I had to build all the rigs which is a lot more work than buying a Bitcoin ASIC miner and using it out of the box. Motherboards, hard drives, power supplies, graphics cards, memory, cases, cables, tables. All that shit had to be bought, assembled, etc. One of my typical rigs had 4 power supplies. I used a mother board that could accept multiple power supplies but even then I had to split the power supply cables to get to 4 units. It is a lot more technical than setting up an ASIC miner.

So how is the SEC going to declare ETH a security now after all that time and many people who mined it. It didn't help that Gensler himself stated Ethereum was a commodity, along with Hinman. The time has gone to try and declare ETH a security. They also approved ETH Futures to trade on commodity exchanges like the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. They and the "Media" are playing games at this point. Probably to allow entities to accumulate ETH at lower entry points.

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10805 on: April 29, 2024, 12:42:53 PM »
That's your opinion. You're saying it is a piece of shit. That does not mean it's a piece of shit. An entire industry has been built on Ethereum. Ethereum's influence on the crypto sphere totally dwarves Bitcoin in every way. Bitcoin developers are now pushing for DEFI and Smart Contracts - they are copycats. It's the Ethereum developers that are responsible for DEFI / Smart Contracts. And many of them were involved with the early Bitcoin, including Vitalik.

https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2024/04/24/op-cat-proposal-to-bring-smart-contracts-to-bitcoin-finally-gets-a-bip-number/

BTC can be recreated, what the hell are you talking about. It's just code. And nothing can be uncreated - unless you have a time machine. If you create a sandcastle on a beach it has been created. You can destroy it, but that initial creation cannot be undone.

I am not against Bitcoin. I think all these platforms and networks need to work together. What I don't like about BTC Maxi's is they want to sic the SEC and government on all other crypto projects so Bitcoin can be made the defacto winner. Make it an even playing field. Stop trying to sic your dogs on other people and if you come out on top in the end then congrats to you.

I don't disagree on the technological innovation of Eth, but the wrapping of this tech into a token, which at least initially was marketed and intended to represent a replacement for money, competing with the purpose of Bitcoin, was disingenuous. And of course now we can all see that the frequent change of code of ETH, let alone its move from proof of work to proof of stake, and the constant manipulation of its issuances etc confirms its failure here to be an "alt" to BTC. But at the time, in the first cycle, this is how Eth was promoted by its founders.

But yes, we do gradually take technological innovations, and then build these on the base layer of the perfect money. This should be obvious, and how it should be, and how it will be.

OK, yes in "theory" you could re-create another version of Bitcoin. In practice we know this has been tried hundreds of thousands of times. And failed each time.

BTC maxies don't mind other "crypto projects" per se, even though the vast vast majority of them are scams. But they just find it disingenuous for such ventures to pretend that they are an alternative to BTC (although most have now given up making such claims, realizing its pointless and just go straight to being memes, or pretending to be related to the latest trend such as AI). And they don't particularly like to see what are essentially very dodgy companies issuing unregistered securities, scamming on the affinity of Bitcoin, when in reality they are entirely fundamentally different.

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10806 on: April 29, 2024, 12:53:38 PM »
I am not saying they are the same. But it is really semantics. And the reality is most of my Ethereum I acquired via mining. Lots of sweat equity went into it. We suffered through hot days, two outlets melted over the years, I had to build all the rigs which is a lot more work than buying a Bitcoin ASIC miner and using it out of the box. Motherboards, hard drives, power supplies, graphics cards, memory, cases, cables, tables. All that shit had to be bought, assembled, etc. One of my typical rigs had 4 power supplies. I used a mother board that could accept multiple power supplies but even then I had to split the power supply cables to get to 4 units. It is a lot more technical than setting up an ASIC miner.

So how is the SEC going to declare ETH a security now after all that time and many people who mined it. It didn't help that Gensler himself stated Ethereum was a commodity, along with Hinman. The time has gone to try and declare ETH a security. They also approved ETH Futures to trade on commodity exchanges like the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. They and the "Media" are playing games at this point. Probably to allow entities to accumulate ETH at lower entry points.

No doubt you put in a lot of hard work. Just like people put a lot of hard work into acquiring investment in Bernie Madoff's fund, or acquiring XRP tokens, by trading their hard earned cash. You actually put in proof of work, and not only did they pre-mine you, but then they changed the protocol on you, and indeed also the monetary policy.

The issue here, is whether seemingly illegally issued tokens, can nevertheless become shares which can be legitimately traded on exchanges. Your best hope, I think, is that the SEC punishes the issuers, settles with them, but allows the tokens to trade. It is possible this would happen (eg Vitalik gets a Billion dollar fine and hands over x amount to Eth to the US Government), maybe serves some token time in prison for fraud and securities violations (no pun intended) and then all goes ahead with Eth being converted into a listed company after extensive re-organization. There are some easily examples of such agreements with illegal issuers, EOS I think being one. So there is hope. Same with Ripple - I think the SEC wants around 5B to settle and then also some jail time to be served? But to go so far as to allow something with these origins to be traded as a security in an ETF is going a step too far I think. (Again, nothing personal view, but just applying the law as I see it - its just too much a perversion of the law, and an absolute moral hazard.

Lets see. I have a little ETH, but would likely still be more harmed by dilution of BTC by ETH, than I would be benefitting from ETH being allowed into a US ETF. So, for me personally, I would prefer to see BTC as the only ETF for a long time ahead. The other big problem is where to draw the line. If ETH is legitimized, then arguably the floodgates are opened to any issuer of securities to circumvent the SEC.

obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10807 on: April 29, 2024, 02:03:54 PM »
No doubt you put in a lot of hard work. Just like people put a lot of hard work into acquiring investment in Bernie Madoff's fund, or acquiring XRP tokens, buy trading their hard earned cash. The issue here, is whether seemingly illegally issued tokens, can nevertheless become shares which can be legitimately traded on exchanges. Your best hope, I think, is that the SEC punishes the issuers, settles with them, but allows the tokens to trade. Its possible this would happen (eg Vitalik gets a Billion dollar fine and hands over x amount to Eth to the US Government), maybe serves some token time (no pun intended) and then all goes ahead. There are some easily examples of such agreements with illegal issuers, EOS I think being one. So there is hope. Same with Ripple - I think the SEC wants around 5B to settle? But to go so far as to allow something with these origins to be traded as a security in an ETF is going a step too far I think. (Again, nothing personal view, but just applying the law as I see it).

Lets see. I have a little ETH, but would likely still be more harmed by dilution of BTC by ETH, than I would be benefitting from ETH being allowed into a US ETF. So, for me personally, I would prefer to see BTC as the only ETF for a long time ahead. The other big problem is where to draw the line. If ETH is legitimized, then arguably the floodgates are opened to any issuer of securities to circumvent the SEC.
THE SEC is like the Mafia's enforcer shaking down businesses for "protection". Should just be shutdown IMO. Stop trying to babysit people. Let the chips fall where they may. When have they ever protected anyone? What's their purpose if they are not protecting investors? To harass and fine? I don't get it. They need to offer me as a tax payer something of value. How have I or you ever benefitted from them? Have they made me money? Some of my taxes went to the SEC. I want a return on my investment!

The SEC is also only in the USA. That's one country amongst many. The US population is a little over 333 million. That's around 4.1% of the world's current almost 8 billion. Why should the rest care about whatever the USA decides? Hong Kong already approved Spot ETH funds. The SEC will only be hurting US investors. The rest of the world will be fine. And last I checked, the USA is basically bankrupt. The influence it will have over crypto markets will severely diminish in the not too distant future.

If anything, Bitcoin, Ethereum and many other cryptos will be a life raft for US citizens. Almost all crypto tokens are better than the US dollar.

https://www.usdebtclock.org/


Mayday

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10808 on: April 29, 2024, 02:16:37 PM »
No buyer is an absolute diamond hand. If they were, there would be no trading except for newly mined coin. WHat we do know, is that many of the ETF buyers will be passive and "sticky", and many will slowly accumulate and hodl for decades to come, especially as the BTC ETFs get incorporated into small portions of more general asset ETFs.

As for holding 58K, all these short term predictions are really non-sensical, as no-one can predict these with certainty. However, what we an do is conclude that is likely BTC will rise for ever, and if so, we simply stack and hodl.

Further, looking at this in USD (which is among the least worst performing of all global currencies) vs BTC is rather US-centric, when you consider that the USD has itself gained against almost all global currencies over the last year. Against most global currencies, BTC is close to, or at the absolute peak, and even against the USD (which has outperformed most global currencies) BTC is up over 100% in just the last year alone.

You are looking at, and being distracted by, micro-parabolas. If you were to zoom out, to say, 2030, you would just see one massive parabolic adoption curve, just like if you zoomed in/our on Microsoft, Amazon, or Google.

USD is the measurement of performance. Currency decline downside is capped to -99% whereas upside is uncapped. Am I more excited about a -10% negative currency swing vs USD or the +400% gain from timing entry to exit 🤔 currency decline is not a bragging point for performance lol

I’m not sure I’d call providing the target price 2yrs in advance short term. In fact that is retail’s perfect scenario to time the market.

Why is it you can brag post about dip buying on a short term timeframe of days yet when I give market bottom and top 2yrs in advance I am the one distracted on ‘short term’ 🤷‍♂️ ?  We got to my target price from 2yrs ago that I waited 2yrs for, hooray.

Your Maxi thinking you keep applying to shitcoins doesn’t work. You will get torn up by people like me who time the market with bigger bags and keep slamming the price of 💩 coins anytime it gets near a peak 😉

My timing has allowed me to enjoy the last 2yrs watching the narrative and data manipulation to direct retail mentality and behaviour. The narratives are BS but hey, it makes money 😀

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10809 on: April 30, 2024, 02:47:12 AM »
USD is the measurement of performance. Currency decline downside is capped to -99% whereas upside is uncapped. Am I more excited about a -10% negative currency swing vs USD or the +400% gain from timing entry to exit 🤔 currency decline is not a bragging point for performance lol

I’m not sure I’d call providing the target price 2yrs in advance short term. In fact that is retail’s perfect scenario to time the market.

Why is it you can brag post about dip buying on a short term timeframe of days yet when I give market bottom and top 2yrs in advance I am the one distracted on ‘short term’ 🤷‍♂️ ?  We got to my target price from 2yrs ago that I waited 2yrs for, hooray.

Your Maxi thinking you keep applying to shitcoins doesn’t work. You will get torn up by people like me who time the market with bigger bags and keep slamming the price of 💩 coins anytime it gets near a peak 😉

My timing has allowed me to enjoy the last 2yrs watching the narrative and data manipulation to direct retail mentality and behaviour. The narratives are BS but hey, it makes money 😀

For any economist, mathematician, or Bitcoiner, our measure is BTC vs purchasing power (not BTC vs USD, or any other declining currency). So, for example if BTC has risen 12% to the USD, but the USD has during that time devalued 10% in purchasing power, you have actually only made a 2% gain in purchasing power when measured in BTC. Comparing to a declining currency is an illusion, much like it appears you are going forwards in a car, when in fact you are stationary and another car next to you is going backwards.

I buy any dip, because it gives me an opportunity to own more of a finite number of sats, which I am confident will go up in value over time. This is what I do, and indeed what we should all be doing. I care little about short-term upward movements, as I am a hodler. I don't intend to sell.

if you, or anyone, could reliably pick short term trends whether in BTC, or in shitcoins, you would be a billionaire. You may believe you can reliably and consistently do this, but you, and almost all people, cannot, much we all wish we could.

Mayday

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10810 on: April 30, 2024, 04:33:13 AM »
For any economist, mathematician, or Bitcoiner, our measure is BTC vs purchasing power (not BTC vs USD, or any other declining currency). So, for example if BTC has risen 12% to the USD, but the USD has during that time devalued 10% in purchasing power, you have actually only made a 2% gain in purchasing power when measured in BTC. Comparing to a declining currency is an illusion, much like it appears you are going forwards in a car, when in fact you are stationary and another car next to you is going backwards.

I buy any dip, because it gives me an opportunity to own more of a finite number of sats, which I am confident will go up in value over time. This is what I do, and indeed what we should all be doing. I care little about short-term upward movements, as I am a hodler. I don't intend to sell.

if you, or anyone, could reliably pick short term trends whether in BTC, or in shitcoins, you would be a billionaire. You may believe you can reliably and consistently do this, but you, and almost all people, cannot, much we all wish we could.

😉

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10811 on: April 30, 2024, 02:14:40 PM »
Obsidian - pretty much right on que...

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/new-court-filings-show-sec-chair-gensler-believed-ethereum-was-security-for-at-least-year

Again, please do not blame me, or take this personally. I am simply telling us here what the law is. Whether the law should be changed or not, and whether you like the outcome of the current laws being applied, is of course a separate matter. But the law is the law - and for us as investors we really need to take note and understand this.


obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10812 on: April 30, 2024, 05:53:35 PM »
Obsidian - pretty much right on que...

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/new-court-filings-show-sec-chair-gensler-believed-ethereum-was-security-for-at-least-year

Again, please do not blame me, or take this personally. I am simply telling us here what the law is. Whether the law should be changed or not, and whether you like the outcome of the current laws being applied, is of course a separate matter. But the law is the law - and for us as investors we really need to take note and understand this.
Whatever he thinks is irrelevant. He does not get to decide this. It will be up to the courts if they decide to go that route. That Fox Business article also makes a lot of assumptions. They are assuming he thought it was a security because of Consensys suing the SEC. But that's just how they are reading it. They don't have the official word from Gensler himself.

He has also now been accused of misleading Congress on Ethereum.

Some think Consensys suing the SEC was a chess move to put pressure on Gensler. The Hong Kong ETH ETF is also considered to be a move to put pressure on the US SEC.

https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/04/30/houses-mchenry-accuses-sec-chief-gensler-of-misleading-congress-on-ethereum/

House's McHenry Accuses SEC Chief Gensler of Misleading Congress on Ethereum

The chairman of the House Financial Services Committee says Gensler refused to discuss his view on ETH in testimony even after the SEC was investigating it as a security.

U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Gary Gensler has been accused of misleading Congress by Rep. Patrick McHenry, the chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, who said Gensler's agency already knew it considered Ethereum's ether a security before he attended a hearing and declined to answer that question.

"Chair Gensler refused to answer questions regarding the SEC's classification of ether," McHenry said in a statement posted on X. "New court filings show this was an intentional attempt to misrepresent the commission's position."

The classification of (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, is a major question hanging over the U.S. oversight of digital assets, and it's being fought on multiple legal fronts. If ETH is a security that should be registered and regulated by the SEC, then many other tokens may also fit that definition.

Documents in Consensys' newly filed lawsuit against the SEC describe how the agency was pursuing an investigation into the nature of ETH days before Gensler testified in April 2023. Consensys is suing the agency ahead of an expected SEC enforcement action.

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10813 on: April 30, 2024, 08:08:30 PM »
A hawkish FED tomorrow and it won't be looking good. Risk off will continue and each BTC support could get taken out down to ETF approval levels. Who will save us?

Ironically a surprise ETH ETF approval might be the one thing that steadies price action. SEC has gone full retard, so any craziness is still possible there. Going after ETH/denying ETH ETF and at the same time they look likely to approve leveraged ETH futures ETFs in June. They might as well have a potato in charge.

Amerian Muscle

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10814 on: May 01, 2024, 12:59:43 AM »
Ah shit here we go again :)

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10815 on: May 01, 2024, 02:10:44 AM »
Whatever he thinks is irrelevant. He does not get to decide this. It will be up to the courts if they decide to go that route. That Fox Business article also makes a lot of assumptions. They are assuming he thought it was a security because of Consensys suing the SEC. But that's just how they are reading it. They don't have the official word from Gensler himself.

He has also now been accused of misleading Congress on Ethereum.

Some think Consensys suing the SEC was a chess move to put pressure on Gensler. The Hong Kong ETH ETF is also considered to be a move to put pressure on the US SEC.

https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/04/30/houses-mchenry-accuses-sec-chief-gensler-of-misleading-congress-on-ethereum/

House's McHenry Accuses SEC Chief Gensler of Misleading Congress on Ethereum

The chairman of the House Financial Services Committee says Gensler refused to discuss his view on ETH in testimony even after the SEC was investigating it as a security.

U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Gary Gensler has been accused of misleading Congress by Rep. Patrick McHenry, the chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, who said Gensler's agency already knew it considered Ethereum's ether a security before he attended a hearing and declined to answer that question.

"Chair Gensler refused to answer questions regarding the SEC's classification of ether," McHenry said in a statement posted on X. "New court filings show this was an intentional attempt to misrepresent the commission's position."

The classification of (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, is a major question hanging over the U.S. oversight of digital assets, and it's being fought on multiple legal fronts. If ETH is a security that should be registered and regulated by the SEC, then many other tokens may also fit that definition.

Documents in Consensys' newly filed lawsuit against the SEC describe how the agency was pursuing an investigation into the nature of ETH days before Gensler testified in April 2023. Consensys is suing the agency ahead of an expected SEC enforcement action.

What Gensler and the SEC think are relevant, to that extend that it is the SEC who enforces the law. However, you are correct that the SEC are not the final deciders of the law. That is of course for the Courts to do.

Whether or Gensler is accused of misleading congress is also irrelevant as to how the law will ultimately be enforced.

The act of Consensys suing the SEC will help get us towards more judicial clarity on the status of Eth and any of the securities law breaches those involved with it are liable for. Its really a double-edged sword to proactively bring such a case - could really backfire if they get an adverse determination.

Another country allowing an illegally issued security to be listed as an ETF is again, not of much relevance on an US court decision (although if there were legal arguments made in a foreign court, such arguments, whilst not binding, could be persuasive if well-reasoned. No "pressure" on the SEC at all in this regard - in fact it makes it easier to tell American's that if they want to buy unregulated products they do so on overseas exchanges. The far greater pressure is to ensure orderly and compliant US capital markets - ETH is a blip in the overall context of that, although approving ETH does risk much larger impact and ramifications of a flood of companies  raising public money by avoiding US listing rules.

Mayday

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10816 on: May 01, 2024, 04:13:02 AM »
A hawkish FED tomorrow and it won't be looking good. Risk off will continue and each BTC support could get taken out down to ETF approval levels. Who will save us?

Ironically a surprise ETH ETF approval might be the one thing that steadies price action. SEC has gone full retard, so any craziness is still possible there. Going after ETH/denying ETH ETF and at the same time they look likely to approve leveraged ETH futures ETFs in June. They might as well have a potato in charge.

If only someone had warned us!!!!!

Hey imagine if 2024 year ended red!

Flexacon

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10817 on: May 01, 2024, 05:17:37 AM »
If only someone had warned us!!!!!

Hey imagine if 2024 year ended red!

It was a great call, made even better by you not waiting for your $76k target to hit first.

I still have a bunch of staked positions open, but I expect to keep printing with them even in a downtrend (uptrend would print harder though)

I think macro is guiding us more than ever though and there is currently a huge put wall in ES that appeared almost out of no where. Maybe a front run of FOMC, so a V shape recovery may be on the cards or it could just be a line in the sand moment. First scenario could see BTC squeeze hard from here to $70k+ as it's only shorts left for the cabal to rek.  Not playing anything, but will be watching with the interest.

obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10818 on: May 01, 2024, 05:22:32 AM »
What Gensler and the SEC think are relevant, to that extend that it is the SEC who enforces the law. However, you are correct that the SEC are not the final deciders of the law. That is of course for the Courts to do.

Whether or Gensler is accused of misleading congress is also irrelevant as to how the law will ultimately be enforced.

The act of Consensys suing the SEC will help get us towards more judicial clarity on the status of Eth and any of the securities law breaches those involved with it are liable for. Its really a double-edged sword to proactively bring such a case - could really backfire if they get an adverse determination.

Another country allowing an illegally issued security to be listed as an ETF is again, not of much relevance on an US court decision (although if there were legal arguments made in a foreign court, such arguments, whilst not binding, could be persuasive if well-reasoned. No "pressure" on the SEC at all in this regard - in fact it makes it easier to tell American's that if they want to buy unregulated products they do so on overseas exchanges. The far greater pressure is to ensure orderly and compliant US capital markets - ETH is a blip in the overall context of that, although approving ETH does risk much larger impact and ramifications of a flood of companies  raising public money by avoiding US listing rules.
I'm not worried about it. Another entity registered their ETH ETF fund. This could all be FUD to get the prices lowered so the funds can get in at lower floors. The ETH futures would not have been approved if there was all this uncertainty regarding ETH's commodity status. It's a commodity. There are no contracts. You can buy ETH without entering any contracts.

Worse case they order that access to metamask be removed. Plans are already in place to have it on Github as a downloadable executable that anyone can run on their computers.

Fidelity files registration statement for Ethereum ETF despite regulatory uncertainty
Fidelity's actions, alongside those of other firms aiming to introduce spot ether ETFs, illustrate the growing interest in integrating digital assets into traditional financial products.

https://cryptoslate.com/fidelity-files-registration-statement-for-ethereum-etf-despite-regulatory-uncertainty/

Franklin Templeton lists Ethereum ETF on DTCC
The DTCC listing does not guarantee SEC approval of Franklin’s spot Ether ETF application.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/franklin-templeton-launches-ethereum-etf-listed-on-dtcc

BlackRock, Grayscale Amend Ethereum ETF Applications After SEC Delays
The flurry of filings follows the SEC's announcement yesterday that it would delay its decision on multiple spot Ethereum ETF proposals.

https://decrypt.co/227817/blackrock-grayscale-amend-ethereum-etf-applications-after-sec-delays

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10819 on: May 01, 2024, 05:23:13 AM »
A hawkish FED tomorrow and it won't be looking good. Risk off will continue and each BTC support could get taken out down to ETF approval levels. Who will save us?

Ironically a surprise ETH ETF approval might be the one thing that steadies price action. SEC has gone full retard, so any craziness is still possible there. Going after ETH/denying ETH ETF and at the same time they look likely to approve leveraged ETH futures ETFs in June. They might as well have a potato in charge.

I took the opportunity to buy the dip (again just a tiny bit). I bought at exactly 56.8. Again, have no intention to trade - just happy to acquire more sats on the cheap.

Agree, short term, hawkish is bullish for the USD, (and negative for assets denominated in USD). This of course will also reverse if/when Fed becomes dovish, but in any case, the US will continue to print money, and hence devalue the USD relative to hard assets over time, regardless of interest rates.

An ETH ETF approval would definitely be positive for Eth and alts. Not so sure for BTC - lets see. But in any case, I very much doubt we would see such approval soon. Those who are so confident it will happen on May 23 are unfortunately in for a big disappointment. 

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10820 on: May 01, 2024, 05:30:42 AM »
I'm not worried about it. Another entity registered their ETH ETF fund. This could all be FUD to get the prices lowered so the funds can get in at lower floors. The ETH futures would not have been approved if there was all this uncertainty regarding ETH's commodity status. It's a commodity. There are no contracts. You can buy ETH without entering any contracts.

Worse case they order that access to metamask be removed. Plans are already in place to have it on Github as a downloadable executable that anyone can run on their computers.

Fidelity files registration statement for Ethereum ETF despite regulatory uncertainty
Fidelity's actions, alongside those of other firms aiming to introduce spot ether ETFs, illustrate the growing interest in integrating digital assets into traditional financial products.

https://cryptoslate.com/fidelity-files-registration-statement-for-ethereum-etf-despite-regulatory-uncertainty/

Franklin Templeton lists Ethereum ETF on DTCC
The DTCC listing does not guarantee SEC approval of Franklin’s spot Ether ETF application.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/franklin-templeton-launches-ethereum-etf-listed-on-dtcc

BlackRock, Grayscale Amend Ethereum ETF Applications After SEC Delays
The flurry of filings follows the SEC's announcement yesterday that it would delay its decision on multiple spot Ethereum ETF proposals.

https://decrypt.co/227817/blackrock-grayscale-amend-ethereum-etf-applications-after-sec-delays

Anyone can file for anything. A filing is simply an request - it demonstrates nothing about the likelihood of approval. I could file for an ETH consisting of pink marshmallows - does not mean it will be approved.

Whether you think Eth is a commodity or not is irrelevant as to what a Court will decide on this issue. But if what you really mean is that you believe that a Court will decide that Eth is a commodity, and that this in turn will then require the SEC to allow spot ETH ETFs to list, and that this in turn will lead to a demand in ETH such that its price will rise, then fair enough - you should invest accordingly, and good luck to you!

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10821 on: May 01, 2024, 08:10:37 AM »
Ah shit here we go again :)

What gold's Spot price?   Just breaking balls its what we men do.  If you still believe the BTC you bought with gold is going to go up then this is a great time to acquire more BTC. I just scooped up some more satoshis at 57K.

obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10822 on: May 01, 2024, 12:37:23 PM »
Anyone can file for anything. A filing is simply an request - it demonstrates nothing about the likelihood of approval. I could file for an ETH consisting of pink marshmallows - does not mean it will be approved.

Whether you think Eth is a commodity or not is irrelevant as to what a Court will decide on this issue. But if what you really mean is that you believe that a Court will decide that Eth is a commodity, and that this in turn will then require the SEC to allow spot ETH ETFs to list, and that this in turn will lead to a demand in ETH such that its price will rise, then fair enough - you should invest accordingly, and good luck to you!
Just before the BTC ETFs were approved, several listings were made. Then there was the fiasco where the SEC tweeted that they approved the BTC ETFs. Then they said no, our account was hacked, we did not approve it. Then a few hours later they say, we approved it. What a bunch of fucking yoyos / amateurs! Fuck me!

XRP / Ripple was judged to not be a security. How on earth will the SEC be able to prove ETH is a security if they could not prove XRP was?

Btw, Larry Fink of Blackrock says it doesn't matter even if Ethereum is classified as a security after a lawsuit. Not sure he's reasoning, but I am sure he's got some info we don't have.

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10823 on: May 01, 2024, 12:44:26 PM »
An ETH ETF approval would definitely be positive for Eth and alts. Not so sure for BTC - lets see. But in any case, I very much doubt we would see such approval soon. Those who are so confident it will happen on May 23 are unfortunately in for a big disappointment.
Why would it be a negative for BTC? Cryptos all rise and fall with each other. Have you ever seen a bull run where only one token goes up and nothing else?

Amadeo Brands predicted the previous bull run tops. He had BTC at $70K and ETH at $5K. That's about as close as you could get.

This time his predictions are:

Optimistic:
BTC: $276,000 (4x increase)
ETH: $29,220 (6x increase)

Moderately Bullish:
BTC: $172,500 (2.5x increase)
ETH: $19,480 (4x increase)

Conservative:
BTC: $103,500 (1.5x increase)
ETH: $12,175 (2.5x increase)

In this video he states he thinks the optimistic scenario is most likely because he is an optimist.


Amerian Muscle

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10824 on: May 01, 2024, 01:13:36 PM »
What gold's Spot price?   Just breaking balls its what we men do.  If you still believe the BTC you bought with gold is going to go up then this is a great time to acquire more BTC. I just scooped up some more satoshis at 57K.
If I hadnt sold, gold would be at 1800 now and btc at 120k