Author Topic: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!  (Read 1128630 times)

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11175 on: August 27, 2024, 06:46:20 AM »
Eth now down 33% to BTC this year (this is the worst its been all year).

What we are seeing on every down cycle is eth dropping more then BTC and on the upcycle, Eth gaining less than BTC. Its a slow bleed.

Obsidian - will you make the call at some point to convert the eth you have to BTC?

Make that 34%...

IroNat

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11176 on: August 27, 2024, 09:03:17 AM »
Coffee is predicted to double in price by 2025.

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11177 on: August 27, 2024, 10:27:22 AM »
Coffee is predicted to double in price by 2025.

Well if you believe this prediction to be true, you know what to do...



obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11178 on: August 27, 2024, 10:39:48 AM »
Make that 34%...
BTC will outperform an "ALT" in a cycle, but what about the long term?  ;D

Sigh, crypto is volatile. Bitcoin is not immune to that. You come out of the woodwork when the Ethereum price retraced. It was at $4,200 a few months ago. Then you're silent or say it is a fluke and it will crash again.

Bitcoin is having its moment right now. Enjoy it. Most of the people buying Bitcoin have no clue that the POW model with a finite supply is 100% doomed. That includes you. Defend it. You said difficulty would adjust so miners become profitable again. It has not adjusted enough. They are losing tens of thousands to millions paying for electricity and mining equipment to secure the BTC network at a loss.

The average price to mine 1 BTC right now is $74,213. It's been over $90,000 this year.

https://en.macromicro.me/charts/29435/bitcoin-production-total-cost

Marathon Digital sold bonds to fund Bitcoin purchases. What's fucked up about that is they are supposed to secure the BTC network. Instead they are buying the asset. Rather than buying more mining rigs they are buying Bitcoin. Hello dummies, Bitcoin does not work without miners. What if 5 large mining facilities were blown up with rocket launchers?

Bitcoin Mining Is So Rough a Miner Adopted Michael Saylor's Successful BTC Strategy
Marathon Digital sold bonds to fund bitcoin purchases, following the route Saylor's MicroStrategy has taken to big stock market gains, as mining profits dwindle.

Rather than purchase more mining rigs, "given the current mining hash price, the internal rate of return (IRR) indicates that purchasing bitcoin using funds from debt or equity issuances is more beneficial to shareholders until conditions improve," the largest publicly traded miner posted recently on X. "Hash price" is a measure of mining profitability.

https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/08/27/bitcoin-mining-is-so-rough-a-miner-adopted-michael-saylors-successful-btc-strategy/

GymnJuice

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11179 on: August 27, 2024, 11:36:04 AM »
Coffee is predicted to double in price by 2025.

Better latte than never.

Mayday

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11180 on: August 27, 2024, 04:35:15 PM »
BTC will outperform an "ALT" in a cycle, but what about the long term?  ;D

Sigh, crypto is volatile. Bitcoin is not immune to that. You come out of the woodwork when the Ethereum price retraced. It was at $4,200 a few months ago. Then you're silent or say it is a fluke and it will crash again.

Bitcoin is having its moment right now. Enjoy it. Most of the people buying Bitcoin have no clue that the POW model with a finite supply is 100% doomed. That includes you. Defend it. You said difficulty would adjust so miners become profitable again. It has not adjusted enough. They are losing tens of thousands to millions paying for electricity and mining equipment to secure the BTC network at a loss.

The average price to mine 1 BTC right now is $74,213. It's been over $90,000 this year.

https://en.macromicro.me/charts/29435/bitcoin-production-total-cost

Marathon Digital sold bonds to fund Bitcoin purchases. What's fucked up about that is they are supposed to secure the BTC network. Instead they are buying the asset. Rather than buying more mining rigs they are buying Bitcoin. Hello dummies, Bitcoin does not work without miners. What if 5 large mining facilities were blown up with rocket launchers?

Bitcoin Mining Is So Rough a Miner Adopted Michael Saylor's Successful BTC Strategy
Marathon Digital sold bonds to fund bitcoin purchases, following the route Saylor's MicroStrategy has taken to big stock market gains, as mining profits dwindle.

Rather than purchase more mining rigs, "given the current mining hash price, the internal rate of return (IRR) indicates that purchasing bitcoin using funds from debt or equity issuances is more beneficial to shareholders until conditions improve," the largest publicly traded miner posted recently on X. "Hash price" is a measure of mining profitability.

https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/08/27/bitcoin-mining-is-so-rough-a-miner-adopted-michael-saylors-successful-btc-strategy/

The plan is being executed perfectly.

The issue is you want the market to obey your personal plan. Maybe your plan is wrong 🤷


How is everyone enjoying the bullish selling? ✋ 💎 🤚


gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11181 on: August 28, 2024, 12:15:20 AM »
BTC will outperform an "ALT" in a cycle, but what about the long term?  ;D

Sigh, crypto is volatile. Bitcoin is not immune to that. You come out of the woodwork when the Ethereum price retraced. It was at $4,200 a few months ago. Then you're silent or say it is a fluke and it will crash again.

Bitcoin is having its moment right now. Enjoy it. Most of the people buying Bitcoin have no clue that the POW model with a finite supply is 100% doomed. That includes you. Defend it. You said difficulty would adjust so miners become profitable again. It has not adjusted enough. They are losing tens of thousands to millions paying for electricity and mining equipment to secure the BTC network at a loss.


Especially for you Obsidian... (please do watch).

i=C26dfcBgN2KuFu-B

affeman

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11182 on: August 28, 2024, 01:05:06 AM »
Especially for you Obsidian... (please do watch).

i=C26dfcBgN2KuFu-B

Well over 100k by March 2024, right? :D

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11183 on: August 28, 2024, 02:02:25 AM »
Only a matter of time... patience young Jedi.

obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11184 on: August 28, 2024, 10:19:15 AM »
Especially for you Obsidian... (please do watch).

i=C26dfcBgN2KuFu-B
That's from a channel named "Swan Bitcoin". Totally biased.

I have Binance BNB tokens also which I acquired back in 2017-2018. BNB has consistently outperformed Bitcoin, even over the past year. That destroys your Bitcoin is superior to "ALTS" argument. Go look at the charts.

The BTC POW model is doomed. You have a finite supply, and the miner rewards are cut in half every 4 years. That is unsustainable in 12-16 years or maybe sooner.

Miners are already starting to declare bankruptcy. POS is a better system for long-term viability.

https://financefeeds.com/bitcoin-miner-rhodium-fi-bankruptcy-100-million/

Bitcoin miner Rhodium files for bankruptcy, citing $100 million in liabilities
August 26, 2024

Bitcoin mining firm Rhodium Enterprises has filed for voluntary Chapter 11 bankruptcy in the US Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of Texas, revealing liabilities of up to $100 million.

The filing was submitted on Saturday and specifically names six subsidiaries: Rhodium Encore, Jordan HPC, Rhodium JV, Rhodium 2.0, Rhodium 10MW, and Rhodium 30MW.

According to court documents, the company’s debts range between $50 million and $100 million, while its total assets are estimated between $100 million and $500 million.
________________

Rhodium is not the first Bitcoin mining company to seek bankruptcy protection. Core Scientific, another major player in the industry, filed for Chapter 11 in December 2022, citing falling cryptocurrency prices and rising energy costs. Core Scientific emerged from bankruptcy in early 2024.

obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11185 on: August 28, 2024, 10:21:43 AM »
We are close to PEAK-ETH FUD. Keep it coming, please. Bullish!

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11186 on: August 28, 2024, 11:04:26 AM »

I have Binance BNB tokens also which I acquired back in 2017-2018. BNB has consistently outperformed Bitcoin, even over the past year. That destroys your Bitcoin is superior to "ALTS" argument. Go look at the charts.

The BTC POW model is doomed. You have a finite supply, and the miner rewards are cut in half every 4 years. That is unsustainable in 12-16 years or maybe sooner.

Miners are already starting to declare bankruptcy. POS is a better system for long-term viability.


The fact than you can cite one alt (I am sure there are more examples) as having out performed BTC from the time of that alts launch, does not change the fact that BTC outperforms almost all alts in the long term, and that almost all alts gravitate to zero over time. (That should be obvious, given that the number of alts which can be created are infinite).

Further, BNB is more analogous to a share in a business, than an alt to Bitcoin. The market is gradually understanding that, and this will over time drive its fundamental value, just like fundamentals drive the price of a share of Coinbase. So I would not really consider it an alt at all. An unregistered security backed by a blockchain token would be a more accurate phrase.

BTC miners going bankrupt is irrelevant to the price of BTC. We see miners in all industries over leveraging, then being hit by downward cycles, then things pick up and mining investment cycle repeats. We see it with gold, silver, copper, iron, aluminum, lithium. Its a natural part of the industry. When rewards half after a halvening, some BTC miners inevitably are not prepared, over leveraged, or undercapitalized, and will drop out. Happens every cycle. both with BTC and with physical commodities.

Over time, those miners who cannot remain profitable close up shop. Its a continuous battle towards better equipment, better efficiency, lower cost of energy, etc. At some point, price moves up and those who have survived make big profits. This encourages new entrants to come in, and for a while there is enough for all to profit and do well, and then eventually investment hits a peak, mining profitability his a low, and the process repeats. So with BTC, no concerns at all. Until the last sat is mined, there will always be an incentive to mine, and to beat others to the next satoshi. Pure capitalism protects Bitcoin, which is the beauty of Satoshi's invention.

As BTC adoption grows, miners will also make more from transaction fees. Secondly, it survival of the fittest. Those who can get access to better rigs, and lower energy cost, wil thrives over those who don't. So, until BTC price rises, we will see a focus on operational efficiency (and those companies will thrive most when the equilibrium moves back into profit again).

Remember, BTC also has a difficulty adjustment. So those remaining will see greater returns as hash rate adjusts in the favour. Again part of the beauty and genius of BTC, operating as an adapting organism. Further, if/when BTC price rises, those miners who have survived the winter get to gorge on the ripe fruit of valuable BTCs as their prices rise. In fact it is probably a matter of months before that swap occurs, leading to a period of juicy profitability for those miners who held out over the winter. Indeed, this has been exactly what has happened for every cycle since BTC has been in existence. And as you know, historically despite repeated halvings, BTCs hash rate has always risen over time.

Mayday

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11187 on: August 28, 2024, 01:18:45 PM »
We are close to PEAK-ETH FUD. Keep it coming, please. Bullish!


obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11188 on: August 28, 2024, 01:50:41 PM »
As BTC adoption grows, miners will also make more from transaction fees.
The fee argument is dead on arrival. The premise is Bitcoin is a store of value. So where are all these fees going to come from if people hold and never sell? The Bitcoin transaction speed is also so slow at 7 TPS that there won't be a huge amount of transactions to generate fee income. There was a flash of fee-increase with the ordinal NFT development. That has died down. The lightning network increases the transaction speed and lowers the fees. But nobody is really using it much, and also why would they if BTC is a store of value. Ethereum L2 fees have also cratered after the fees were dramatically reduced via the Dencun upgrade.

Nobody has a real solution for the fee dilemma. Solana's problem is it gets spammed because of low fees because it costs nothing to spam which then bogs Solana down. Then we see all the failed Solana transactions or it going offline.

Ethereum will also see an increase in spam with the low L2 fees. Having many L2 chains help alleviate that. I can see a future upgrade where Ethereum users can make a transaction and the exchange will route the transaction on the least congested L2 at the lowest possible price, without the user having to click on a dropdown menu. That is where we are headed.

Ethereum's current inflation of 0.75% is not a huge concern. It is lower than Bitcoin's current inflation and a positive inflation means the Ethereum market cap grows even if there is sideways price action. It looks good on paper as the market cap grows even with 0% price action.

Bitcoin payments nosedive while Ethereum rises, Bitrefill study shows
https://finbold.com/bitcoin-payments-nosedive-while-ethereum-rises-bitrefill-study-shows/

Remember, BTC also has a difficulty adjustment. So those remaining will see greater returns as hash rate adjusts in the favour.
You say hash rate goes down to make mining easier. But it has not. Look at the chart. It just keeps going up.

https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/charts/hash-rate

And as you know, historically despite repeated halvings, BTCs hash rate has always risen over time.
You say hash rate goes up to make mining more difficult.

So which is it? First you say difficulty adjusts down with a lower hash rate after the halving so miners remain profitable. Then you say it goes up. It probably will go up if Bitcoin's price starts to go past $100,000. But then the price corrects down again. In the end, Bitcoin miners are finding it harder and harder to justify securing the Bitcoin network for everyone at a loss. And every 4-year halving will amplify this more.

obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11189 on: August 28, 2024, 01:55:13 PM »

Let's revisit in late 2025 (if WW3 did not happen). I hope of course I am right. BlackRock probably also hopes they are right. But we'll see. I could be wrong, I agree. Price history cycles indicate otherwise but are not a guarantee.

SouJerz

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11190 on: August 28, 2024, 04:50:18 PM »
Jedi?  More like Padawan

SouJerz

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11191 on: August 28, 2024, 04:51:18 PM »
We are close to PEAK-ETH FUD. Keep it coming, please. Bullish!

ETH to 10k!!!

Mayday

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11192 on: August 29, 2024, 06:40:53 PM »
Let's revisit in late 2025 (if WW3 did not happen). I hope of course I am right. BlackRock probably also hopes they are right. But we'll see. I could be wrong, I agree. Price history cycles indicate otherwise but are not a guarantee.

I have said we have another peak in 2025. Bear market now and has been for 5mths since the top.

Just because someone buys doesn’t mean they are HoDLeRs. Big players purchase, open a short and dump into it. Where do you think the sell firepower is coming from?

Historic data is open to interpretation. That’s why HoDL exists. People get it wrong so often they created a HoDL strategy where the belief is if you hold long enough it will outweigh your poor ability to read markets short term. It’s an interesting logic to apply, you are wrong about everything in the short term but if you do nothing, you will be correct in some unknown time period in the future. 

It’s quite the pickle people are getting themselves into thinking HoDLing crypto will somehow make their incorrect financial calls correct.

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11193 on: August 30, 2024, 04:52:04 AM »
The fee argument is dead on arrival. The premise is Bitcoin is a store of value. So where are all these fees going to come from if people hold and never sell? The Bitcoin transaction speed is also so slow at 7 TPS that there won't be a huge amount of transactions to generate fee income. There was a flash of fee-increase with the ordinal NFT development. That has died down. The lightning network increases the transaction speed and lowers the fees. But nobody is really using it much, and also why would they if BTC is a store of value. Ethereum L2 fees have also cratered after the fees were dramatically reduced via the Dencun upgrade.

Nobody has a real solution for the fee dilemma. Solana's problem is it gets spammed because of low fees because it costs nothing to spam which then bogs Solana down. Then we see all the failed Solana transactions or it going offline.

Ethereum will also see an increase in spam with the low L2 fees. Having many L2 chains help alleviate that. I can see a future upgrade where Ethereum users can make a transaction and the exchange will route the transaction on the least congested L2 at the lowest possible price, without the user having to click on a dropdown menu. That is where we are headed.

Ethereum's current inflation of 0.75% is not a huge concern. It is lower than Bitcoin's current inflation and a positive inflation means the Ethereum market cap grows even if there is sideways price action. It looks good on paper as the market cap grows even with 0% price action.

Bitcoin payments nosedive while Ethereum rises, Bitrefill study shows
https://finbold.com/bitcoin-payments-nosedive-while-ethereum-rises-bitrefill-study-shows/
You say hash rate goes down to make mining easier. But it has not. Look at the chart. It just keeps going up.

https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/charts/hash-rate
You say hash rate goes up to make mining more difficult.

So which is it? First you say difficulty adjusts down with a lower hash rate after the halving so miners remain profitable. Then you say it goes up. It probably will go up if Bitcoin's price starts to go past $100,000. But then the price corrects down again. In the end, Bitcoin miners are finding it harder and harder to justify securing the Bitcoin network for everyone at a loss. And every 4-year halving will amplify this more.

Come on Obsidian - you are smarter than that as we both know it. But just in case not (or for anyone who might be misled by your comments), we made a little video here in which each of your points is addressed...

i=0Ryl-tKF6xr6X4fE

obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11194 on: August 30, 2024, 05:32:43 AM »
Come on Obsidian - you are smarter than that as we both know it. But just in case not (or for anyone who might be misled by your comments), we made a little video here in which each of your points is addressed...

i=0Ryl-tKF6xr6X4fE
I'll watch it later today. I like Coin Bureau's content.

I did a quick calculation:
450 BTC mined daily. At a price of $72,000 per 1 BTC mined that represents $32,400,400
BTC can do 7 TPS so in a day it could do a maximum of 7x60x60x24 = 604,800 transactions per day (Max Theoretical).
I read there's typically around 300,000 - 400,000 BTC transactions per day.

32,400,000 / 300,000 = $108
32,400,000 / 400,000 = $81
32,400,000 / 604,800 = $54

TO BREAK EVEN AND MAINTAIN THE CURRENT HASH RATE / SECURITY WITHOUT MINER REWARDS:
If there were zero BTC  miner yield / rewards, BTC transactions would require a fee of around $54-108 per transaction depending on the transaction volume.

If energy or hardware costs goes up then the transaction fees would increase if the same level of security is desired.

The fees would probably have to be double to ensure profit for miners. $108-216 per transaction fee would work in 2024. These numbers will probably go up yearly.

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11195 on: August 30, 2024, 05:50:57 AM »
I'll watch it later today. I like Coin Bureau's content.

I did a quick calculation:
450 BTC mined daily. At a price of $72,000 per 1 BTC mined that represents $32,400,400
BTC can do 7 TPS so in a day it could do a maximum of 7x60x60x24 = 604,800 transactions per day (Max Theoretical).
I read there's typically around 300,000 - 400,000 BTC transactions per day.

32,400,000 / 300,000 = $108
32,400,000 / 400,000 = $81
32,400,000 / 604,800 = $54

TO BREAK EVEN AND MAINTAIN THE CURRENT HASH RATE / SECURITY WITHOUT MINER REWARDS:
If there were zero BTC  miner yield / rewards, BTC transactions would require a fee of around $54-108 per transaction depending on the transaction volume.

If energy or hardware costs goes up then the transaction fees would increase if the same level of security is desired.

The fees would probably have to be double to ensure profit for miners. $108-216 per transaction fee would work in 2024. These numbers will probably go up yearly.

Your concerns are all nicely addressed in video - enjoy. :)

loco

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11196 on: August 30, 2024, 01:20:03 PM »

Mayday

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11197 on: August 30, 2024, 01:42:22 PM »
Obsidian you are still confused.

Hash rate for security, Miners  for centralisation.

You should be spending your energy on what you need ETH to do in order to not go down in flames. 

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loco

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