Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!

[TheGrinch]

its okay... gib sold everything at $67k

[Mayday]

its okay... gib sold everything at $67k

It’s tough for maxis now as you’re halfway down and this isn’t the bottom.

Green line is the eventual target, approx 20k.

FOMC Meeting on the 25th-26th will be interesting. CPI is their core focus right now and traders dumping commodity positions helps get that metric down. Catch 22.

On Chain guys are in disbelief after crowing Supply shortage will pump to the moon this entire time…..

I had one dude disagreeing with me so he tells me he is a scientist and follows the data and it all says supply shortage so it goes up. I was pointing out the exchange supply is double that of 2017 and we have the same number of coins on exchanges now as we did in April yet price is 40% lower.  This was 2 days before this crash to 34k lol.

This ties back to my autist ways of price is set by belief psychology first and then supply/demand happens as a result. Its better to think of it this way and not treat them as being one and the same.

[Flexacon]

It’s tough for maxis now as you’re halfway down and this isn’t the bottom.

Green line is the eventual target, approx 20k.

FOMC Meeting on the 25th-26th will be interesting. CPI is their core focus right now and traders dumping commodity positions helps get that metric down. Catch 22.

On Chain guys are in disbelief after crowing Supply shortage will pump to the moon this entire time…..

I had one dude disagreeing with me so he tells me he is a scientist and follows the data and it all says supply shortage so it goes up. I was pointing out the exchange supply is double that of 2017 and we have the same number of coins on exchanges now as we did in April yet price is 40% lower.  This was 2 days before this crash to 34k lol.

This ties back to my autist ways of price is set by belief psychology first and then supply/demand happens as a result. Its better to think of it this way and not treat them as being one and the same.

I don't think maxis are bothered, obviously not happy, but it is what it is for them.

I'd rather try navigate it and compound my gains.

If this hits 20k, I'm predicting a 200k cycle top in 2023

[Mayday]

I don't think maxis are bothered, obviously not happy, but it is what it is for them.

I'd rather try navigate it and compound my gains.

If this hits 20k, I'm predicting a 200k cycle top in 2023

Here you go,

Institutions looking for a 14.5k - 18k entry price.

[Mayday]

Fwiw Current move looking for 31.9k.

Exchanges have psychological buy walls at 30k.

Under that 24k 19k 14k which nobody thinks we will hit but you see my post above those 14k-19k is exactly where institutions have buying interest.

[Spike]

my $700 nest egg is down to $430

christ on a cracker

[Flexacon]

Gobbled up more ETH.

We are pretty much where we were Oct 1st last year. 69k ATH a couple of months later without retail getting involved. Hope for the same with some retail fomo and it's 80k-100k

[Tennisballz]

So has this turned into another “it’s all over guys” immediately followed by a “buy now!  It’s going to the moon”?

[Flexacon]

So has this turned into another “it’s all over guys” immediately followed by a “buy now!  It’s going to the moon”?

It's just following the dow right now.

[Mayday]

So has this turned into another “it’s all over guys” immediately followed by a “buy now!  It’s going to the moon”?

There is generally months in between changes. A bottom from a large down movement generally takes weeks/months. We have not yet hit the bottom, all we got was an initial down and a top for a range.

The end of year was the big opportunity. It didn’t happen and then it was a question whether Jan would provide any bump given it’s a very positive money inflow month. It didn’t happen.

So what is there now?

7% CPI which equates to the 70s 15% all time record
QE which was flowing directly into banks finishes in March
QT starting after that which draws money out
3 x interest rate hikes starting from March
Sending people back to work which combined with the above sucks the life out of consumers

So it’s not primed to do any huge numbers this year.

I’m waiting for March. When rates actually do rise, I think it’ll be a very nervous run to the exits.

[Flexacon]

I’m waiting for March. When rates actually do rise, I think it’ll be a very nervous run to the exits.

There is no one left to exit. Retail and China left the space several months ago.

It's just institutions selling to de-risk and for collateral whenever the dow starts looks shitty.

As far as predicting which way the crypto market goes, this is one of the easiest. If the dow recovers, btc rockets. If it slumps further btc tanks. We all know stockmarkets only goes up though, so any slump will be very brief.

[TheFranchise]

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1486800268348084226?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1486800268348084226%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpatriots.win%2Fp%2F141FOg6FYG%2Fand-here-we-go%2Fc%2F

Biden is preparing to put out an executive order to regulate digital assets under the “national security” disguise.

[OneMoreRep]

Well, Jerome Powell said absolutely nothing we already didn't know.

• Rate hikes in March (barrier to "free" money as loans will no longer be dirt cheap to borrow)
• Continued tapering of bond purchasing (less money creation as the Fed will buy less of the US government debt -US treasury bonds-, which means that the US govt won't have new Fed cash to infuse into circulation)
• Steep reduction to Fed balance sheet (The Fed will sell the treasury bonds they hold via reverse repo agreements, which will in turn get more money off circulation and back into Fed)

These are all ways to "hopefully" fight inflation, but I don't know if it will make that much of a difference. I think we are a little too far gone at this point.

"1"

[Mayday]

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1486800268348084226?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1486800268348084226%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpatriots.win%2Fp%2F141FOg6FYG%2Fand-here-we-go%2Fc%2F

Biden is preparing to put out an executive order to regulate digital assets under the “national security” disguise.

No prizes for guessing why he is doing that…..comrade…..

Russia is wanting to move energy to EUR from USD. The US then threatens to Wipe Russia from swift. Russia is hard in crypto. US attacks Ruble and threatens action against crypto.

[Mayday]

Opening a short on ETH 

[OneMoreRep]

Opening a short on ETH 

Well, don't tease us with this. If you're going short it tells me you think the price will go much lower. How much lower do you think ETH will go? In turn, how much lower do you see BTC going?

"1"

[Mayday]

Well, don't tease us with this. If you're going short it tells me you think the price will go much lower. How much lower do you think ETH will go? In turn, how much lower do you see BTC going?

"1"

BTC has had a heap of coins loaded onto exchanges so it looks primed for a retest of the lows.

ETH just tested its previous high. We might go down now to test the lows otherwise we need to break upwards.

Bottom is not in for the market so that is yet to happen. Q2 ?

[Mayday]

Well, don't tease us with this. If you're going short it tells me you think the price will go much lower. How much lower do you think ETH will go? In turn, how much lower do you see BTC going?

"1"

As for where we are now.

Bottom will be at the point where BTC is cheap enough people will buy it over alts/NFTs. When BTC ranges low it does it to bleed out the entire market and force buyers back into BTC.

2014 and 2018 both had multiple bottom touches to bleed out the market. When it looked like the bottom was in, large players dumped and the market was reset.

Right now We will have a second bottoming so I’m looking for a 28k touch during this ranging first before any bounce happens. That’s  ETH @ 1,700.

At some point the longs are soooo high from the bottom big players send it down and that’s the cascade event as it’s a straight sell dump to close a long. See the last photo as the example for this. Those on the left are long liquidation points and the values are the highest in 3 months. People are yoloing longs hard on high lvr and at some point it’s too lucrative to not liquidate the entire market and that’s how the capitulation event happens.

[OneMoreRep]

Right now We will have a second bottoming so I’m looking for a 28k touch during this ranging first before any bounce happens. That’s  ETH @ 1,700.

At ETH of $1,700 would slowly approach my ideal entry point. I think anything under $1,500 is a good buy.

Let's see what Biden's upcoming crypto executive order unveils for us next month. I think that can produce some significant price action.

"1"

[Flexacon]

Opening a short on ETH 

A short position after we've already had a 50% drop

[Flexacon]

As for where we are now.

Bottom will be at the point where BTC is cheap enough people will buy it over alts/NFTs. When BTC ranges low it does it to bleed out the entire market and force buyers back into BTC.

2014 and 2018 both had multiple bottom touches to bleed out the market. When it looked like the bottom was in, large players dumped and the market was reset.

Right now We will have a second bottoming so I’m looking for a 28k touch during this ranging first before any bounce happens. That’s  ETH @ 1,700.

At some point the longs are soooo high from the bottom big players send it down and that’s the cascade event as it’s a straight sell dump to close a long. See the last photo as the example for this. Those on the left are long liquidation points and the values are the highest in 3 months. People are yoloing longs hard on high lvr and at some point it’s too lucrative to not liquidate the entire market and that’s how the capitulation event happens.

You're looking at this from the wrong perspective IMO.

Your brain is looking patterns and this chart teases that it's close to lining up. Look at it what it really shows though.

The first 2 bottoms came after blow off tops. We have not had a blow off top this cycle to expect a repeat of the bottom. If anything we are at the midpoint (bottom) of the 2012/13 double peak, just extended. This was your original thesis all along and we were on course for it. Chinese sell off, Omicron panic and a stock market dip sent crypto tanking. Nothing other than the price has changed with the predicted cycle or fundamentals for BTC or ETH. Why wouldn't you buy 2.5k Eth now when you were happy buying eth at 3.5k? Did FUD got you?

I'll be buying more ETH mid Feb. Hoping the price doesn't go up any more, lower works too.

[Mayday]

A short position after we've already had a 50% drop

It’s just for the range play. But alas I went to short and I can’t do futures anymore in my country on Binance.

I’m assuming it will range like before and alts will bleed. I expect a second bottom before a breakout bounce but that might be 28k. I dunno.

You're looking at this from the wrong perspective IMO.

Your brain is looking patterns and this chart teases that it's close to lining up. Look at it what it really shows though.

The first 2 bottoms came after blow off tops. We have not had a blow off top this cycle to expect a repeat of the bottom. If anything we are at the midpoint of the 2012/13 double peak, just extended. This was your original thesis all along and we were on course for it. Chinese sell off, Omicron panic and a stock market crash sent crypto tanking.

I'll be buying more ETH mid Feb. Hoping the price doesn't go up any more, lower works too.

Everyone keeps saying what you said. No blow off top therefore price goes up.

Parabolic = check
Double peak = check
Seasonality fit to 2013 = check (peaked 1 wk earlier than 2013)

[Flexacon]

It’s just for the range play. But alas I went to short and I can’t do futures anymore in my country on Binance.

I’m assuming it will range like before and alts will bleed. I expect a second bottom before a breakout bounce but that might be 28k. I dunno.

Everyone keeps saying what you said. No blow off top therefore price goes up.

Parabolic = check
Double peak = check
Seasonality fit to 2013 = check (peaked 1 wk earlier than 2013)

Only blow off tops and the subsequent bleed have resulted in the type of bottom shown in your previous chart. That's why I'm saying it's unlikely we'll see a similar bottom yet. You won't get one without the other.

Also 2013 and 2017 were parabolic in the log charts. The May and Nov 2021 peaks you're showing aren't, so that can easily be unchecked.

There was a double peak in 2017 before the 2017 parabolic move so that could easily be a check for a parabolic run still to come.

Seasonality/end of cycle in the past meant money moves from BTC to ETH then ALTs. This didn't happen after the Nov ATH .

We are at the mercy of the stock market right now (dow) so we can still possibly go lower, but this cycle is far from done. x5 ETH

[Mayday]

Only blow off tops and the subsequent bleed have resulted in the type of bottom shown in your previous chart. That's why I'm saying it's unlikely we'll see a similar bottom yet. You won't get one without the other.

Also 2013 and 2017 were parabolic in the log charts. The May and Nov 2021 peaks you're showing aren't, so that can easily be unchecked.

There was a double peak in 2017 before the 2017 parabolic move so that could easily be a check for a parabolic run still to come.

Seasonality/end of cycle in the past meant money moves from BTC to ETH then ALTs. This didn't happen after the Nov ATH .

We are at the mercy of the stock market right now (dow) so we can still possibly go lower, but this cycle is far from done. x5 ETH

No blow off top for BTC because the sell pressure was organised and massive in the lead up. 2021 for BTC was mostly a 3 month long top distribution of large players dumping into retail and then crash meanwhile alts had a pure parabolic top. Total market still parabolic both times.


CHeck the BTC dominance end 2018 to today and you will see BTC at the exact same 40 zone as end cycle 2017. Market positioning and behaviour is the exact same as end cycle. Every bastard is buying and sitting in alts because BTC is too expensive. It’s the exact same story.

Grayscale institution buyers have not come back in droves so how can it be a bottom?

However or whatever triggers in the market I have no idea but I’m not interested until I see a bottom in and institutions are buying in droves.

[Slapper]

When Grayscale (parent company of GBTC) became a net seller of BTC and Coinbase went public that's when The Play started to unravel. Right now Grayscale is STILL charging a 2% management fee so... my suspicion is that no one wants to pay the two fat fucks (Sonnensheim & Silbert) a 2% management fee when they're not even really trying to convert to an ETF.   

My suspicion is that nothing will happen with BTC, in terms of price appreciation, until the USD/DXY takes a nosedive for good.