Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!

[Flexacon]

Opening a short on ETH 

A short position after we've already had a 50% drop

[Flexacon]

As for where we are now.

Bottom will be at the point where BTC is cheap enough people will buy it over alts/NFTs. When BTC ranges low it does it to bleed out the entire market and force buyers back into BTC.

2014 and 2018 both had multiple bottom touches to bleed out the market. When it looked like the bottom was in, large players dumped and the market was reset.

Right now We will have a second bottoming so I’m looking for a 28k touch during this ranging first before any bounce happens. That’s  ETH @ 1,700.

At some point the longs are soooo high from the bottom big players send it down and that’s the cascade event as it’s a straight sell dump to close a long. See the last photo as the example for this. Those on the left are long liquidation points and the values are the highest in 3 months. People are yoloing longs hard on high lvr and at some point it’s too lucrative to not liquidate the entire market and that’s how the capitulation event happens.

You're looking at this from the wrong perspective IMO.

Your brain is looking patterns and this chart teases that it's close to lining up. Look at it what it really shows though.

The first 2 bottoms came after blow off tops. We have not had a blow off top this cycle to expect a repeat of the bottom. If anything we are at the midpoint (bottom) of the 2012/13 double peak, just extended. This was your original thesis all along and we were on course for it. Chinese sell off, Omicron panic and a stock market dip sent crypto tanking. Nothing other than the price has changed with the predicted cycle or fundamentals for BTC or ETH. Why wouldn't you buy 2.5k Eth now when you were happy buying eth at 3.5k? Did FUD got you?

I'll be buying more ETH mid Feb. Hoping the price doesn't go up any more, lower works too.

[Mayday]

A short position after we've already had a 50% drop

It’s just for the range play. But alas I went to short and I can’t do futures anymore in my country on Binance.

I’m assuming it will range like before and alts will bleed. I expect a second bottom before a breakout bounce but that might be 28k. I dunno.

You're looking at this from the wrong perspective IMO.

Your brain is looking patterns and this chart teases that it's close to lining up. Look at it what it really shows though.

The first 2 bottoms came after blow off tops. We have not had a blow off top this cycle to expect a repeat of the bottom. If anything we are at the midpoint of the 2012/13 double peak, just extended. This was your original thesis all along and we were on course for it. Chinese sell off, Omicron panic and a stock market crash sent crypto tanking.

I'll be buying more ETH mid Feb. Hoping the price doesn't go up any more, lower works too.

Everyone keeps saying what you said. No blow off top therefore price goes up.

Parabolic = check
Double peak = check
Seasonality fit to 2013 = check (peaked 1 wk earlier than 2013)

[Flexacon]

It’s just for the range play. But alas I went to short and I can’t do futures anymore in my country on Binance.

I’m assuming it will range like before and alts will bleed. I expect a second bottom before a breakout bounce but that might be 28k. I dunno.

Everyone keeps saying what you said. No blow off top therefore price goes up.

Parabolic = check
Double peak = check
Seasonality fit to 2013 = check (peaked 1 wk earlier than 2013)

Only blow off tops and the subsequent bleed have resulted in the type of bottom shown in your previous chart. That's why I'm saying it's unlikely we'll see a similar bottom yet. You won't get one without the other.

Also 2013 and 2017 were parabolic in the log charts. The May and Nov 2021 peaks you're showing aren't, so that can easily be unchecked.

There was a double peak in 2017 before the 2017 parabolic move so that could easily be a check for a parabolic run still to come.

Seasonality/end of cycle in the past meant money moves from BTC to ETH then ALTs. This didn't happen after the Nov ATH .

We are at the mercy of the stock market right now (dow) so we can still possibly go lower, but this cycle is far from done. x5 ETH

[Mayday]

Only blow off tops and the subsequent bleed have resulted in the type of bottom shown in your previous chart. That's why I'm saying it's unlikely we'll see a similar bottom yet. You won't get one without the other.

Also 2013 and 2017 were parabolic in the log charts. The May and Nov 2021 peaks you're showing aren't, so that can easily be unchecked.

There was a double peak in 2017 before the 2017 parabolic move so that could easily be a check for a parabolic run still to come.

Seasonality/end of cycle in the past meant money moves from BTC to ETH then ALTs. This didn't happen after the Nov ATH .

We are at the mercy of the stock market right now (dow) so we can still possibly go lower, but this cycle is far from done. x5 ETH

No blow off top for BTC because the sell pressure was organised and massive in the lead up. 2021 for BTC was mostly a 3 month long top distribution of large players dumping into retail and then crash meanwhile alts had a pure parabolic top. Total market still parabolic both times.


CHeck the BTC dominance end 2018 to today and you will see BTC at the exact same 40 zone as end cycle 2017. Market positioning and behaviour is the exact same as end cycle. Every bastard is buying and sitting in alts because BTC is too expensive. It’s the exact same story.

Grayscale institution buyers have not come back in droves so how can it be a bottom?

However or whatever triggers in the market I have no idea but I’m not interested until I see a bottom in and institutions are buying in droves.

[Slapper]

When Grayscale (parent company of GBTC) became a net seller of BTC and Coinbase went public that's when The Play started to unravel. Right now Grayscale is STILL charging a 2% management fee so... my suspicion is that no one wants to pay the two fat fucks (Sonnensheim & Silbert) a 2% management fee when they're not even really trying to convert to an ETF.   

My suspicion is that nothing will happen with BTC, in terms of price appreciation, until the USD/DXY takes a nosedive for good.

[Mayday]

When Grayscale (parent company of GBTC) became a net seller of BTC and Coinbase went public that's when The Play started to unravel. Right now Grayscale is STILL charging a 2% management fee so... my suspicion is that no one wants to pay the two fat fucks (Sonnensheim & Silbert) a 2% management fee when they're not even really trying to convert to an ETF.   

My suspicion is that nothing will happen with BTC, in terms of price appreciation, until the USD/DXY takes a nosedive for good.

I don’t have the chart saved but Jan-Mar coins from whales were being loaded onto exchanges  and dumped hard into retail FOMO. At the same time we see GBTC go from a premium to a discount. It had everything to do with selling the news event timing of coinbase.

Barry blames the GBTC discount on ETFs so he doesn’t spook the market. Can’t really blame the guy given the narrative of the bullrun has been institutional adoption.

Nobody gives a shit about a 2% fee when institutions were just buying at a 30% discount a week ago. The discount has more volatility swings in a day than the fee.

Then GBTC approaches 0% again it’s will mean institutions are buying again in volume.

[FitnessFrenzy]

There is a lot of realized losses from crypto's total market cap of 3 to 1.7 trillion. A lot of people were wiped out.

[Mayday]

There is a lot of realized losses from crypto's total market cap of 3 to 1.7 trillion. A lot of people were wiped out.

Stimmy money laser eyed Bitcoin buyers were the retail FOMO wave and they got nuked in April-May

Then November nuke

Then January nuke

We are about to get a mad volatility squeeze which should play out in the coming days. Up? Down? Depends on your view. Coins have been building up on exchanges the last 2 days which signals either preparation for a sell on an upward pump or a massive dump.

Volatility up takes up probably to 44k-46k. Volatility down sends us to 28k-32k.

Last night 28k coins were loaded into Binance in addition to coins days prior to that. This is gunna be a big one here, just wait for a direction breakout.

[Slapper]

I don’t have the chart saved but Jan-Mar coins from whales were being loaded onto exchanges  and dumped hard into retail FOMO. At the same time we see GBTC go from a premium to a discount. It had everything to do with selling the news event timing of coinbase.

Barry blames the GBTC discount on ETFs so he doesn’t spook the market. Can’t really blame the guy given the narrative of the bullrun has been institutional adoption.

Nobody gives a shit about a 2% fee when institutions were just buying at a 30% discount a week ago. The discount has more volatility swings in a day than the fee.

Then GBTC approaches 0% again it’s will mean institutions are buying again in volume.

Many things were happening back in 2021 but what happened with GBTC was that they halted all new investments. Being that anyone invested in the fund had a 6 month lock up period, it is now VERY clear the investors were in it for the premium (earlier investors dumping on the later tranches,) and it slowly began to bleed out. The excuse given was that the fund did not have enough BTC to back it up, and that Grayscale was basically printing certificates out of thin air. THAT's when they stopped buying BTC, which coincides, more or less, with BTC's top.

And yes, the 2% fee IS an issue precisely because they fund their operations by selling BTC. Since they have no investors and GBTC has gone to shit, the money runs out quickly, hence their selling. God knows how many BTC they are unloading onto the market now.

And yes, Sonnensheim and Silbert are conts, idiots. Their incompetence is stoopid beyond belief now. Still charging 2% in a world where everybody else is charging <1%.

[Flexacon]

We had a parabolic run in May yet hit another ATH in Nov, suggesting Cycle isn't over.

-Retail was not involved in November yet we still hit an ATH.

-BTC dominance in that run didn't change much in those months yet we still hit an ATH.

-Nov was a domed top ATH both for the ALT market and BTC.

-No jump in GBTC buy ins yet we hit a Nov ATH

Nearly all end of cycle indicators failed in November.

Stocks recover, so does crypto. Bidens announcement will probably be neutral on crypto and it will be used to pump the market. March announcements could cause a stock market dump. Crypto dumps with it. Stocks eventually goes back up...

[Mayday]

Many things were happening back in 2021 but what happened with GBTC was that they halted all new investments. Being that anyone invested in the fund had a 6 month lock up period, it is now VERY clear the investors were in it for the premium (earlier investors dumping on the later tranches,) and it slowly began to bleed out. The excuse given was that the fund did not have enough BTC to back it up, and that Grayscale was basically printing certificates out of thin air. THAT's when they stopped buying BTC, which coincides, more or less, with BTC's top.

And yes, the 2% fee IS an issue precisely because they fund their operations by selling BTC. Since they have no investors and GBTC has gone to shit, the money runs out quickly, hence their selling. God knows how many BTC they are unloading onto the market now.

And yes, Sonnensheim and Silbert are conts, idiots. Their incompetence is stoopid beyond belief now. Still charging 2% in a world where everybody else is charging <1%.

**edit as I use too many words**

It’s the same mentality for the trust as the spot market, that’s the point I am making. The rationale is if the world’s largest crypto fund is at a large negative discount and is drip selling their coins (they are not dumping), it means the market has not bottomed otherwise we would see them reach equilibrium.

When we recently hit 33k we saw the Grayscale move from -30% to -20% in 3 days. Investors were buying BTC at 23k. You are too quick to assume the trust is failing rather than believe it is functioning fine and it’s the investors waiting for a bottom, just like we saw last week.

In other words it correlated on the way down but will correlate on the way up because a cheaper entry in the trust gives much better risk control than spot. Institutions will buy up the discount GBTC BEFORE they buy spot BTC just like we saw the trust premium go down BEFORE spot was dumped. It’s the same participants/psychology in both as they react together as the same time.

[Mayday]

Snip

I shall pray for your longs 🙏

[OneMoreRep]

I shall pray for your longs 🙏

Geezus, who the fuck is that? Winnie the pooh post Meth?



"1"

[Mayday]

Geezus, who the fuck is that? Winnie the pooh post Meth?

It’s Winnie the Pooh personified as the current crypto market

But you lot are acting more like this after a 50% drop and a 2% rally expecting an ATH within days.

[Griffith]

Apparently Raoul Pal only owns 1 BTC, the rest of his portfolio is mainly ETH.

Stablecoins, Defi, NFT's, the Metaverse, all are using Ethereum.

[Mayday]

Apparently Raoul Pal only owns 1 BTC, the rest of his portfolio is mainly ETH.

Stablecoins, Defi, NFT's, the Metaverse, all are using Ethereum.

And he has 15k put options in March……

Oh, he left that bit out

[Griffith]

Visa Teams with ConsenSys for Central Bank Digital Currency Pilot

https://www.pymnts.com/cbdc/2022/visa-teams-with-consensys-for-central-bank-digital-currency-pilot/

Visa is collaborating with the (Ethereum) blockchain software company ConsenSys to launch a central bank digital currency (CBDC) pilot program to test retail applications like cards and wallets, Bloomberg reported on Thursday (Jan. 13).

Both companies will first hold talks with an estimated 30 central banks regarding what the monetary authorities expect to achieve with government-backed digital currencies. The pilot is anticipated to launch in the spring of this year.

Visa started offering payment cards linked to the stablecoin USD Coin in March. The USD Coin is pegged to the U.S. dollar and is managed by a consortium called Centre, which was founded by Circle and includes members from the cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, PYMNTS reported.

“We think that stablecoins and CBDCs will coexist in the future and there’ll be a number of different approaches to creating products based on that,” Cuy Sheffield, Visa’s head of crypto, told Bloomberg.

China has already launched several trial programs with the digital yuan and is planning to accept the currency at the Beijing Winter Olympics. Nigeria and the Bahamas are also circulating their own CBDCs.

ConsenSys is headed by Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin, who has already tested CBDCs with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and the Bank of Thailand.

[Slapper]

It’s the same mentality for the trust as the spot market, that’s the point I am making. The rationale is if the world’s largest crypto fund is at a large negative discount and is drip selling their coins (they are not dumping), it means the market has not bottomed otherwise we would see them reach equilibrium.

When we recently hit 33k we saw the Grayscale move from -30% to -20% in 3 days. Investors were buying BTC at 23k. You are too quick to assume the trust is failing rather than believe it is functioning fine and it’s the investors waiting for a bottom, just like we saw last week.

In other words it correlated on the way down but will correlate on the way up because a cheaper entry in the trust gives much better risk control than spot. Institutions will buy up the discount GBTC BEFORE they buy spot BTC just like we saw the trust premium go down BEFORE spot was dumped. It’s the same participants/psychology in both as they react together as the same time.

Oh my God dude... stubborn a bit huh? Grayscale is literally dumping their BTC daily. It's not a "drip". I'm not saying that the trust is failing, YOU are. No trust will ever go belly up if they finance their operating expenses on selling the premium into an almost 30% discount. And again, THIS after their 2% management fee has run out.

And no, I don't know if investors will buy up GBTC to a premium when BTC starts going ballistic because next time we will most likely have an ETF from someone else that will act as a black hole of money from new entrants. EVERYBODY knows, at least the ones paying attention, that the days of the 30% GBTC premium are over. Sonnensheim and Seibert managed this drop so erratically... I mean, at one point there were so many hybrid products out there arbitraging the discount that it kept on growing even when BTC was skyrocketing. Which spooked even more investors and ensured the predicament we're in right now.

       

[obsidian]

Here's a hint for everyone including technical analysts - nobody knows what the price is going to do. Almost everyone has been off with this cycle. Many were expecting a blow off top in Q4 of 2021. That did not happen. Yeah Ethereum got close to $5,000 but the price people expected was $20,000.

Are there any billionaire TAs out there?

[Mayday]

Oh my God dude... stubborn a bit huh? Grayscale is literally dumping their BTC daily. It's not a "drip". I'm not saying that the trust is failing, YOU are. No trust will ever go belly up if they finance their operating expenses on selling the premium into an almost 30% discount. And again, THIS after their 2% management fee has run out.

And no, I don't know if investors will buy up GBTC to a premium when BTC starts going ballistic because next time we will most likely have an ETF from someone else that will act as a black hole of money from new entrants. EVERYBODY knows, at least the ones paying attention, that the days of the 30% GBTC premium are over. Sonnensheim and Seibert managed this drop so erratically... I mean, at one point there were so many hybrid products out there arbitraging the discount that it kept on growing even when BTC was skyrocketing. Which spooked even more investors and ensured the predicament we're in right now.

**edit - too many words.

Fwiw Grayscale holdings, maybe 1k/day sell for almost a year. I call it drip feed selling, others call it massive dumping.

I do hope BTC can get above the 40k mark so longs can get a good run short term. Volatility squeeze looks to be a decent size move.

But alas, I am only interested in the bottom. Maybe it’s April? Maybe it’s November? I shall hibernate until I see the bottom is in.

[Spike]

bitcoin has me concerned right now

had to liquidate and use remaining to fund my bodybuilding career with some igf1 and gh

Ill be back in the game once it gets above 40k

[tommywishbone]

Classic or Open Division sir?

Keen decision. I once new a bodybuilder that made over $40 one year.

[Flexacon]

Immutable X (IMX) is gonna pump for a quick play when the Americans wake up. Sold some ETH and loaded up. $3.50 right now

[a_pupil]

bitcoin has me concerned right now

had to liquidate and use remaining to fund my bodybuilding career with some igf1 and gh

Ill be back in the game once it gets above 40k

It's a strange thing to say, but that's probably a better financial choice