Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!

[Mayday]

When Grayscale (parent company of GBTC) became a net seller of BTC and Coinbase went public that's when The Play started to unravel. Right now Grayscale is STILL charging a 2% management fee so... my suspicion is that no one wants to pay the two fat fucks (Sonnensheim & Silbert) a 2% management fee when they're not even really trying to convert to an ETF.   

My suspicion is that nothing will happen with BTC, in terms of price appreciation, until the USD/DXY takes a nosedive for good.

I don’t have the chart saved but Jan-Mar coins from whales were being loaded onto exchanges  and dumped hard into retail FOMO. At the same time we see GBTC go from a premium to a discount. It had everything to do with selling the news event timing of coinbase.

Barry blames the GBTC discount on ETFs so he doesn’t spook the market. Can’t really blame the guy given the narrative of the bullrun has been institutional adoption.

Nobody gives a shit about a 2% fee when institutions were just buying at a 30% discount a week ago. The discount has more volatility swings in a day than the fee.

Then GBTC approaches 0% again it’s will mean institutions are buying again in volume.

[FitnessFrenzy]

There is a lot of realized losses from crypto's total market cap of 3 to 1.7 trillion. A lot of people were wiped out.

[Mayday]

There is a lot of realized losses from crypto's total market cap of 3 to 1.7 trillion. A lot of people were wiped out.

Stimmy money laser eyed Bitcoin buyers were the retail FOMO wave and they got nuked in April-May

Then November nuke

Then January nuke

We are about to get a mad volatility squeeze which should play out in the coming days. Up? Down? Depends on your view. Coins have been building up on exchanges the last 2 days which signals either preparation for a sell on an upward pump or a massive dump.

Volatility up takes up probably to 44k-46k. Volatility down sends us to 28k-32k.

Last night 28k coins were loaded into Binance in addition to coins days prior to that. This is gunna be a big one here, just wait for a direction breakout.

[Slapper]

I don’t have the chart saved but Jan-Mar coins from whales were being loaded onto exchanges  and dumped hard into retail FOMO. At the same time we see GBTC go from a premium to a discount. It had everything to do with selling the news event timing of coinbase.

Barry blames the GBTC discount on ETFs so he doesn’t spook the market. Can’t really blame the guy given the narrative of the bullrun has been institutional adoption.

Nobody gives a shit about a 2% fee when institutions were just buying at a 30% discount a week ago. The discount has more volatility swings in a day than the fee.

Then GBTC approaches 0% again it’s will mean institutions are buying again in volume.

Many things were happening back in 2021 but what happened with GBTC was that they halted all new investments. Being that anyone invested in the fund had a 6 month lock up period, it is now VERY clear the investors were in it for the premium (earlier investors dumping on the later tranches,) and it slowly began to bleed out. The excuse given was that the fund did not have enough BTC to back it up, and that Grayscale was basically printing certificates out of thin air. THAT's when they stopped buying BTC, which coincides, more or less, with BTC's top.

And yes, the 2% fee IS an issue precisely because they fund their operations by selling BTC. Since they have no investors and GBTC has gone to shit, the money runs out quickly, hence their selling. God knows how many BTC they are unloading onto the market now.

And yes, Sonnensheim and Silbert are conts, idiots. Their incompetence is stoopid beyond belief now. Still charging 2% in a world where everybody else is charging <1%.

[Flexacon]

We had a parabolic run in May yet hit another ATH in Nov, suggesting Cycle isn't over.

-Retail was not involved in November yet we still hit an ATH.

-BTC dominance in that run didn't change much in those months yet we still hit an ATH.

-Nov was a domed top ATH both for the ALT market and BTC.

-No jump in GBTC buy ins yet we hit a Nov ATH

Nearly all end of cycle indicators failed in November.

Stocks recover, so does crypto. Bidens announcement will probably be neutral on crypto and it will be used to pump the market. March announcements could cause a stock market dump. Crypto dumps with it. Stocks eventually goes back up...

[Mayday]

Many things were happening back in 2021 but what happened with GBTC was that they halted all new investments. Being that anyone invested in the fund had a 6 month lock up period, it is now VERY clear the investors were in it for the premium (earlier investors dumping on the later tranches,) and it slowly began to bleed out. The excuse given was that the fund did not have enough BTC to back it up, and that Grayscale was basically printing certificates out of thin air. THAT's when they stopped buying BTC, which coincides, more or less, with BTC's top.

And yes, the 2% fee IS an issue precisely because they fund their operations by selling BTC. Since they have no investors and GBTC has gone to shit, the money runs out quickly, hence their selling. God knows how many BTC they are unloading onto the market now.

And yes, Sonnensheim and Silbert are conts, idiots. Their incompetence is stoopid beyond belief now. Still charging 2% in a world where everybody else is charging <1%.

**edit as I use too many words**

It’s the same mentality for the trust as the spot market, that’s the point I am making. The rationale is if the world’s largest crypto fund is at a large negative discount and is drip selling their coins (they are not dumping), it means the market has not bottomed otherwise we would see them reach equilibrium.

When we recently hit 33k we saw the Grayscale move from -30% to -20% in 3 days. Investors were buying BTC at 23k. You are too quick to assume the trust is failing rather than believe it is functioning fine and it’s the investors waiting for a bottom, just like we saw last week.

In other words it correlated on the way down but will correlate on the way up because a cheaper entry in the trust gives much better risk control than spot. Institutions will buy up the discount GBTC BEFORE they buy spot BTC just like we saw the trust premium go down BEFORE spot was dumped. It’s the same participants/psychology in both as they react together as the same time.

[Mayday]

Snip

I shall pray for your longs 🙏

[OneMoreRep]

I shall pray for your longs 🙏

Geezus, who the fuck is that? Winnie the pooh post Meth?



"1"

[Mayday]

Geezus, who the fuck is that? Winnie the pooh post Meth?

It’s Winnie the Pooh personified as the current crypto market

But you lot are acting more like this after a 50% drop and a 2% rally expecting an ATH within days.

[Griffith]

Apparently Raoul Pal only owns 1 BTC, the rest of his portfolio is mainly ETH.

Stablecoins, Defi, NFT's, the Metaverse, all are using Ethereum.

[Mayday]

Apparently Raoul Pal only owns 1 BTC, the rest of his portfolio is mainly ETH.

Stablecoins, Defi, NFT's, the Metaverse, all are using Ethereum.

And he has 15k put options in March……

Oh, he left that bit out

[Griffith]

Visa Teams with ConsenSys for Central Bank Digital Currency Pilot

https://www.pymnts.com/cbdc/2022/visa-teams-with-consensys-for-central-bank-digital-currency-pilot/

Visa is collaborating with the (Ethereum) blockchain software company ConsenSys to launch a central bank digital currency (CBDC) pilot program to test retail applications like cards and wallets, Bloomberg reported on Thursday (Jan. 13).

Both companies will first hold talks with an estimated 30 central banks regarding what the monetary authorities expect to achieve with government-backed digital currencies. The pilot is anticipated to launch in the spring of this year.

Visa started offering payment cards linked to the stablecoin USD Coin in March. The USD Coin is pegged to the U.S. dollar and is managed by a consortium called Centre, which was founded by Circle and includes members from the cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, PYMNTS reported.

“We think that stablecoins and CBDCs will coexist in the future and there’ll be a number of different approaches to creating products based on that,” Cuy Sheffield, Visa’s head of crypto, told Bloomberg.

China has already launched several trial programs with the digital yuan and is planning to accept the currency at the Beijing Winter Olympics. Nigeria and the Bahamas are also circulating their own CBDCs.

ConsenSys is headed by Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin, who has already tested CBDCs with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and the Bank of Thailand.

[Slapper]

It’s the same mentality for the trust as the spot market, that’s the point I am making. The rationale is if the world’s largest crypto fund is at a large negative discount and is drip selling their coins (they are not dumping), it means the market has not bottomed otherwise we would see them reach equilibrium.

When we recently hit 33k we saw the Grayscale move from -30% to -20% in 3 days. Investors were buying BTC at 23k. You are too quick to assume the trust is failing rather than believe it is functioning fine and it’s the investors waiting for a bottom, just like we saw last week.

In other words it correlated on the way down but will correlate on the way up because a cheaper entry in the trust gives much better risk control than spot. Institutions will buy up the discount GBTC BEFORE they buy spot BTC just like we saw the trust premium go down BEFORE spot was dumped. It’s the same participants/psychology in both as they react together as the same time.

Oh my God dude... stubborn a bit huh? Grayscale is literally dumping their BTC daily. It's not a "drip". I'm not saying that the trust is failing, YOU are. No trust will ever go belly up if they finance their operating expenses on selling the premium into an almost 30% discount. And again, THIS after their 2% management fee has run out.

And no, I don't know if investors will buy up GBTC to a premium when BTC starts going ballistic because next time we will most likely have an ETF from someone else that will act as a black hole of money from new entrants. EVERYBODY knows, at least the ones paying attention, that the days of the 30% GBTC premium are over. Sonnensheim and Seibert managed this drop so erratically... I mean, at one point there were so many hybrid products out there arbitraging the discount that it kept on growing even when BTC was skyrocketing. Which spooked even more investors and ensured the predicament we're in right now.

       

[obsidian]

Here's a hint for everyone including technical analysts - nobody knows what the price is going to do. Almost everyone has been off with this cycle. Many were expecting a blow off top in Q4 of 2021. That did not happen. Yeah Ethereum got close to $5,000 but the price people expected was $20,000.

Are there any billionaire TAs out there?

[Mayday]

Oh my God dude... stubborn a bit huh? Grayscale is literally dumping their BTC daily. It's not a "drip". I'm not saying that the trust is failing, YOU are. No trust will ever go belly up if they finance their operating expenses on selling the premium into an almost 30% discount. And again, THIS after their 2% management fee has run out.

And no, I don't know if investors will buy up GBTC to a premium when BTC starts going ballistic because next time we will most likely have an ETF from someone else that will act as a black hole of money from new entrants. EVERYBODY knows, at least the ones paying attention, that the days of the 30% GBTC premium are over. Sonnensheim and Seibert managed this drop so erratically... I mean, at one point there were so many hybrid products out there arbitraging the discount that it kept on growing even when BTC was skyrocketing. Which spooked even more investors and ensured the predicament we're in right now.

**edit - too many words.

Fwiw Grayscale holdings, maybe 1k/day sell for almost a year. I call it drip feed selling, others call it massive dumping.

I do hope BTC can get above the 40k mark so longs can get a good run short term. Volatility squeeze looks to be a decent size move.

But alas, I am only interested in the bottom. Maybe it’s April? Maybe it’s November? I shall hibernate until I see the bottom is in.

[Spike]

bitcoin has me concerned right now

had to liquidate and use remaining to fund my bodybuilding career with some igf1 and gh

Ill be back in the game once it gets above 40k

[tommywishbone]

Classic or Open Division sir?

Keen decision. I once new a bodybuilder that made over $40 one year.

[Flexacon]

Immutable X (IMX) is gonna pump for a quick play when the Americans wake up. Sold some ETH and loaded up. $3.50 right now

[a_pupil]

bitcoin has me concerned right now

had to liquidate and use remaining to fund my bodybuilding career with some igf1 and gh

Ill be back in the game once it gets above 40k

It's a strange thing to say, but that's probably a better financial choice 

[Flexacon]

Shorts rekt. Bears in tears.

Big ol pump into the super bowl very likely.

[Mayday]

Oh but you can’t use Grayscale as any guide because of blah blah blah…..

I bet it’s a different story as it moves rapidly towards equilibrium

-11% is back to the July support level as spot holds @ 44k. We want to see this flip positive which would tell us institutions perceive the bottom as being in and retail essentially flushed out. Don’t get too excited yet, it needs to show 0%+ to be comfortable.

Price is heavily bot driven at the moment. 46k and 46.8k are resistance lines for now.

Super Bowl on Monday with BTC ads. Sell the event?  Feb 25th options expiration aren’t really showing any sign of life above 40k despite being up here for days.

[Flexacon]

Go with whatever coins you like and are comfortable holding long term. Buy in with the mentally that catching a new cycle top and taking some easy profit as a nice bonus if it happens, but long term holding is the default.

IMO crypto is close to ripping and going on bull run to a new cycle peak. The only thing that could potentially hold it back is a huge financial crash.

S&P 500 could drop up to 50% from its peak over the next few months. I've shorted it and plan on going long crypto (alts). That's my hedge. The retard in me is also hoping both plays come off simultaneously.

Both positions currently in the green

If this comes off my head will be this big

[French]

I'm all in C98. Hodl til the end of time.
never goes into my wallet, but I have set several widely-spaced price alerts

[Mayday]

Getting very close to a bottom…..

Note the 3 circles I placed which are bottoms for 2014, 2018, 2019 following major peaks.

The bottom occurs at the start of the range when it closes together, not the end of it.

Historically a bottom from a major peak has taken 1yr. Peak was at the start of April if we look at active user data.

Coins on exchanges owned by whales vs retail is crazy high.

March options now have rising open interest for 15k-16k with bulk OI 20k-25k-30k for 25th March.

Sharemarket Volmageddon. Global war risk.

My Twitter feed contains some on chain people telling people they are dumb because of supply shortage. Influencers are posting 100k this year and how bad people should feel for not buying. Fandoms saying everybody is short and nobody is long therefore we will hit ATHs.

Make of that what you will.

[Mayday]

Shits fkd confirmation.