Brokered Convention

[240 is Back]

In terms of politics - I think Cruz is done as a result of this story.

I don't think it affects the job he'd do, and he is still my #1 choice.  But I'm sure he cannot win due to this story. 

Obviously, trump is ten times the scumbag, bragging about banging married women. 

But in 2016 american politics, I think this sinks Cruz.  the story has been on facebook for weeks, the NE released it today with pics and details - if they follow their pattern, they wait for Cruz to deny it THEN they release all the pics, recordings, dates, times, and evidence.  They WAITED for gifford and edwards to deny it - all parties involved did - and then they dropped their evidence.  It kept the story big much longer that way.

dos equis, just tell us the story is false.  Say it.  This way, in a week, we can look at your post and wonder what you were smoking.

[TuHolmes]

Do you think it's a true story?

If so, why?

[240 is Back]

Do you think it's a true story?

If so, why?

I admit, I worked in grocery for nearly a decade as I was in college.  Age 16 to 27, summers and nights.  I read a LOT of national enquirer in the breakroom because it was always there.  I don't read it now, but I know their style, as I love and study media.

I've seen the affairs they talk about.  They troll the guilty into denying it, and they don't give out NAMES (well, slightly blurred pics which the web has already unveiled) unless they KNOW they have this dude guilty.

And it makes sense.  Trump threatening to "spill the beans"?  Her erratic behavior/breakdown?  The fact they've lived apart for a huge chunk of their marriage - he still lives apart from his family.  The fact he's young, the fact he was just so chummy with that erratic crazy person Katrina.  And, the fact that he's been able to so flawlessly jumble the truth with a straight face regarding that Ben Carson Iowa shit that he stepped in.  He ignored videotape evidence and just blankly told his own version, obviously false.  

the NE doesn't post Katrina's pic unless it happened.  No way.  And trump posted a wink last week with katrina's pic... she is outright crazy and deceptive, which means (historically, and I think we can all agree) she loves a sexual challenge (like a married man) and she likes to get powerful D all the time, and cruz is a powerful man.  Crazy & hot girls have to bang the most important man in the room, don't they?

The affair is starting to get traction on the scrub websites now, moving up from the CTer sites.  It'll be on the lib sites next.   Im' literally sick to my stomach reading it - but the way DU and FR are frantically deleting it... hmmmm

And.... It's the Same Reporter that Broke the John Edwards Scandal

[Dos Equis]

Scott Walker predicts open GOP convention would nominate someone not currently running
JESSIE OPOIEN | The Capital Times | jopoien@madison.com | @jessieopie 
Mar 24, 2016

Associated Press
Gov. Scott Walker, who dropped out of the presidential race last year, hopes to turn around his low approval ratings in 2016.

If the Republican Party finds itself with an open convention in July, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker believes the nominee may not be Donald Trump, Ted Cruz or John Kasich.

"I think if it’s an open convention, it’s very likely it would be someone who’s not currently running," Walker told reporters Thursday. "I mean, who knows. The one thing I qualify — it’s like the qualifications you see on those ads you see for car dealerships. I think any of us who comment on this election have to qualify that almost every prediction’s been off, so it’s hard to predict anything."

The governor, who ended his own presidential campaign in September, has yet to endorse a candidate. He plans to decide whether to endorse within the next few days, he said.

Walker spoke to a few reporters in Madison after signing into law a bipartisan bill creating a dietetic internship program in the state's Women, Infants and Children (WIC) program.

"I think it might be one of the days where the weather trumps Trump," he joked, adding that that was probably "wishful thinking."

He declared a state of emergency on Tuesday as a precautionary measure for the winter storm blanketing the state with freezing rain and snow.

Candidates on both sides of the aisle are ramping up their presence in Wisconsin as the state's April 5 presidential primary approaches. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is set to tour Dane Manufacturing in the village of Dane on Thursday afternoon, with a rally in Janesville in the evening. He spoke Wednesday night at an event hosted by conservative radio host Charlie Sykes.

Ohio Gov. John Kasich held a town hall in Wauwatosa on Wednesday, and real estate mogul Donald Trump announced a rally in Janesville next week.

No Democratic rallies have been scheduled yet, but Chelsea Clinton, daughter of Hillary Clinton, is scheduled to campaign on behalf of the former Secretary of State in Milwaukee, Madison and Waukesha on Thursday.

Walker said he receives phone calls frequently from people involved in the Cruz and Kasich campaigns, but hasn't heard "a peep" from the Trump campaign.

"In fact, I don’t know, other than the candidate, what kind of infrastructure, if anything, they have here, which is similar to what I hear from others around the country," Walker said.

Asked whether he would anticipate putting extra law enforcement in place for a Trump visit, Walker said the candidate would be given the same assistance as any other visiting the state.

"I think at this point, we’re just appreciative that Wisconsin's relevant in both primaries, both in the Republican and Democrat side," Walker said. "So I think on behalf of the voters here, we appreciate any of the candidates, be it Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders or be it Donald Trump, Ted Cruz or John Kasich coming to the state, and we want to make sure not only they, but the people both coming to support them and those that may be opposed to them, are all safe and sound."

Walker said he has no plans to attend a presidential campaign event unless and until he makes an endorsement, which would likely happen later next week.

After exiting the presidential race, Walker called several times for the remaining Republican candidates to clear the field for a positive alternative to Trump.

Asked last month whether he would support Trump should he earn the GOP nomination, Walker noted that all of the Republican presidential candidates, including himself, signed a pledge months ago promising to back the party's eventual nominee.

In an interview with Sykes broadcast on Wednesday, Walker said the only Republican candidate in the race with a chance to win the nomination besides Trump is Cruz.

A Marquette University Law School poll released last month showed Trump leading among Wisconsin Republican voters with 30 percent. Twenty percent of GOP primary voters said they would support Rubio, who had not yet left the race. Nineteen percent would support Cruz and 8 percent would support Kasich, while 10 percent were undecided. A new poll is set to come out next week.

http://host.madison.com/ct/news/local/govt-and-politics/election-matters/scott-walker-predicts-open-gop-convention-would-nominate-someone-not/article_e3eea03d-8f97-57ed-90bc-e5f737001d52.html

[Dos Equis]

Louisiana Primary: Cruz Beat Trump in Delegates

Image: Louisiana Primary: Cruz Beat Trump in Delegates (Getty Images)
By Joe Crowe   |   Friday, 25 Mar 2016

Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz has won in the race for delegates in Louisiana, even though he lost the primary vote to Donald Trump in that state, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Cruz and Trump won 18 delegates each in Louisiana. Cruz could now gain up to 10 more delegates in the state.

Five delegates left in play by Marco Rubio's exit from the race are likely to side with Cruz, and five more delegates are unbound, which means they can vote for the candidate of their choice. They're also likely to join the Cruz camp, reports the Journal.

Cruz's campaign appears to be more successful than Trump at maneuvering within the delegate selection process, which differs from state to state. His supporters also won five out of six Louisiana positions on Republican National Convention Rules Committee.

Louisiana is the first state to name delegates for the three convention committees: Rules Committee, Credentials Committee, and the Party Platform. Cruz supporters won five of the six Louisiana slots, and the sixth is not committed to a candidate.

Those delegates will help write the convention rules and, in the end, choose the GOP nominee.

If Trump fails to reach the 1,237-delegate number outright, those committees could block Trump from winning enough to get the nomination.

http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/louisiana-primary-cruz-beat-trump/2016/03/25/id/720861/#ixzz43wJ9wRVh

[Dos Equis]

If history is a guide, the delegate leader (with less than a majority) heading into the convention will not be the nominee.

A History of Contested Political Conventions
Written by: David Simmons | March 27th, 2016
(Guest commentary by David Simmons)

As a presidential historical junkie I’m following this year’s GOP nominating process with many emotions including fascination and discouragement.  We appear to be watching history in the making. One possible outcome of this year’s GOP primaries and caucuses is a contested nominating convention where no candidate has enough delegate votes going into the convention to secure a first ballot nomination.  Here’s a quick history you may all enjoy about contested conventions.  For this purpose, I’m defining a contested convention as requiring more than one ballot to select a nominee. 

Contested nominating conventions are unusual, but not uncommon for either of the major parties.  Since the founding of both political parties (1832 for the Democratic Party, and 1856 for the Republican Party, or GOP) a total of 90 nominating conventions have been held. Of these 90 conventions, 26 – or nearly 30% have been contested conventions.  The Democrats have had 16 contested conventions out of 48, and the GOP has had 10 out of 42 conventions. They seem rare to us because the last two contested conventions for either party was 1952 for the Democrats, and 1948 for the Republicans.  In the modern political era where a large majority of delegates for each party is chosen through primaries and caucuses, a contested convention has not occurred.  (In 1976 neither Gerald Ford, the incumbent president nor Ronald Reagan had enough committed delegates to claim a majority heading into the GOP convention; however Ford prevailed prior to the first ballot in securing 52% of the delegate (votes).

When a contested convention does occur, the candidate with the highest number of delegates after the first ballot has only won a minority of times.  For the Democrats, the leading candidate after the first ballot secured the nomination 7 out of 16 times.  For the Republicans, the leading candidate only secured the nomination 3 out of 10 times. 

When a candidate is ultimately selected in a contested convention, it doesn’t appear to be fatal for the party’s nominee.  For the Democrats in 6 out of 16 contested conventions the eventual nominee has won the presidency.  For the Republicans the odds have been even better – their candidate has won the general election 5 out of 10 times.  Interestingly, in only 3 out of 26 contested conventions has the leading candidate for either party after the first ballot eventually secured the presidency – Buchanan in 1856, Cleveland in 1884, and FDR in 1932.  In the other 7 occasions where the contested nominee has won the general election, he was not the leading candidate in the first round of balloting. 

Some very strong presidents have come out of contested conventions.  These include Abraham Lincoln (1860), FDR (1932), Woodrow Wilson (1912), and James Polk (1844). They have also resulted in some weak presidents – Franklin Pierce (1852), James Buchanan (1856), and Warren G. Harding (1920), but in whole the contested conventions appear to have strengthened the party rather than destroying it. 

Most of the contested conventions were decided after a handful of ballots, but a few went on for many rounds.  Perhaps the most famous, and certainly the most divisive for the country occurred in 1860 when the Democrats failed to select a nominee during their first convention held in Charleston, S.C.  Prior to the first ballot most of the delegates from southern states walked out in protest of the party platform.  The remaining delegates went through 56 rounds of voting without selecting a nominee.  A later convention that summer held in Baltimore without the southern delegates nominated Sen. Stephen Douglas.  The protesting delegates held their own convention later in Baltimore and selected John Breckenridge as their presidential nominee.  The honor for highest number of ballots still belongs to the 1924 Democratic Convention where John W. Davis was selected on the 103rd ballot. 

Another famous but not contested convention, based on my definition of multiple ballots, was held in 1912 when Teddy Roosevelt had the largest number of committed delegates and landslide primary victories over the incumbent president (and his handpicked successor), William Howard Taft.  Roosevelt had won primaries in 9 out of 12 states – eight by wide margins, and arrived at the convention with strong support.  However, 36 states did not hold primaries and selected delegates in state conventions.  A fight broke out during the certification of delegates with Roosevelt claiming fraud.  When the anti-Roosevelt delegates were ultimately seated many of the Roosevelt delegates abstained from voting out of protest and Taft was selected on the first ballot. In retaliation California governor Hiram Johnson quickly organized the Progressive Party’s convention several weeks later that nominated Roosevelt as their nominee.  The Democrats had their own contested election in 1912 with 46 ballots required before Woodrow Wilson was selected as the nominee.  In the general election Roosevelt came in second to Wilson with 27% of the popular vote and 88 electoral votes, the highest number for a third political party since before the Civil War.  Taft, the incumbent president, finished third with 23% of the popular vote and 8 electoral votes.  Interestingly, the only two states Taft carried were Vermont and Utah.

My favorite contested convention was held by the GOP in 1880. James Garfield, who started out the convention as a nominator for the incumbent president Rutherford B. Hayes, ended up as the party nominee after 36 ballots.  He had no interest in even running for president before the convention became completely deadlocked. If fact, Garfield only had 1 vote headed into the 34th ballot.  Former president U.S. Grant had the largest number of delegates on every ballot until the 36th when Garfield won a majority. As part of a bargain, Chester Arthur from NY was selected as the VP nominee. Arthur had never held political office but was one of the leaders of the NY political machine who were behind Grant. Garfield got Arthur to break from his boss, Sen. Roscoe Conkling, and accept the the VP nomination. Less than a year later, of course, Arthur became president after the assassination of Garfield.

In all of my own reading of U.S. political history, I can’t come close to finding another candidate quite like Trump.  He may well spell the end of the GOP as we know it today.  But both major political parties have proven themselves to be amazing resilient and have reinvented themselves multiple times.  It will be fascinating, if not utterly discouraging, to watch how this ultimately unfolds.

http://leavittpartners.com/2016/03/a-history-of-contested-political-conventions/

[Dos Equis]

Fact check: Kasich barred by convention rule?
Robert Farley, FactCheck.org
March 31, 2016

Ted Cruz has repeatedly said that by rule only he and Donald Trump will be eligible to be on the ballot for consideration at a contested convention. Not necessarily.

The rule cited by Cruz — which requires that a candidate win a majority of delegates in at least eight states — was added as a temporary measure in 2012. Delegates for the 2016 convention could amend that rule, or waive it entirely.

Cruz has repeatedly cited the rule to label Ohio Gov. John Kasich a spoiler. Cruz says that by rule Kasich’s name cannot be placed in nomination and voted on at the Republican convention in July.

If Kasich fails to win eight states — a likely scenario — then that’s true under the rule as it stands today. But experts told us that rule could be amended. In recent conventions prior to 2012, the threshold was a plurality of delegates in five states. It had been three states prior to that, and in elections prior to the 1960s, there was no rule like that at all.

The issue of “Rule 40" has taken on heightened interest and scrutiny as a contested convention remains a possibility. Only Trump and Cruz have a mathematical chance at this point of winning a majority of delegates needed to secure the nomination on a first ballot. Kasich, who has won only his home state of Ohio, has pinned his presidential hopes on none of the candidates reaching the majority threshold, and then making his case at a contested convention.

Cruz has repeatedly argued in the last week, however, that Kasich would be precluded from nomination, by rule.

Cruz is referring to Rule 40 (b), which was adopted by the 2012 Republican National Convention. It required presidential candidates to have won a majority of delegates in at least eight states in order to be considered for nomination at the convention. The rule was proposed by supporters of Mitt Romney to block Ron Paul supporters from placing Paul’s name in nomination at the convention.

Trump is the only one to have reached that eight-state threshold so far. Cruz currently does not meet the benchmark, but he is well-positioned to do so by the convention, Josh Putnam, a lecturer at the University of Georgia who tracks delegate rules at the blog FrontloadingHQ, told us in a phone interview. It appears unlikely that Kasich will reach the eight-state threshold.

At a CNN town hall on March 29, Cruz claimed that “it’s against the rules for John Kasich to be on the ballot” and that “the only two names on the ballot are going to be Donald Trump and me. On the rules, those are the only two people that can be voted on.”

In an interview with Sean Hannity on Fox News on March 28, Cruz also asserted (at the 7:32 mark) that “under the rules, there will be only two names on the ballot, Donald Trump’s and mine.”

Kasich’s campaign disagrees. In a conference call on March 29, the Kasich team said it did not see the 2012 rule as a major obstacle, according to a report from National Review.

National Review, March 29: On the call, Kasich’s team also stated that Rule 40, which requires a candidate to have won a majority of delegates in eight states in order to be eligible to win the nomination, would not be a barrier for Kasich because the Rules Committee will meet anew to determine the rules for Cleveland.

Morris Fiorina, a political science professor at Stanford University, told us via email that the rule “can be changed by the convention at will.”

Prior to 2012, the rule read like this in 2008:

Rules of the Republican Party, 2008, Rule 40: (b) Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a plurality of the delegates from each of five (5) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination.

But in 2012, when Ron Paul secured the loyalty of enough delegates to flirt with meeting that threshold, the rule was amended — at the direction of supporters of Mitt Romney — to keep Paul’s name from being placed in nomination.

In 2012, the delegates changed the required threshold from a plurality of the delegates in five states to a majority of delegates in eight states.

Rules of the Republican Party, 2012, Rule 40: (b) Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight ( or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination.

In 2012, Rule 40 was expressly tagged as a “temporary” rule. As it states in Rule 42, “Upon the adoption of the report of the Convention Committee on Rules and Order of Business, Rule Nos. 26-42 shall constitute the Standing Rules for this convention and the temporary rules for the next convention.”

There will be numerous opportunities for delegates to rewrite rules prior to the 2016 convention.

In an interview with USA TODAY on March 23, Reince Priebus, chairman of the Republican National Committee, said likely there will be some rule changes.

“It’s … kind of silly to believe that the Romney delegates would write the rules for a convention in 2016 that, at this point, would be made up mostly of (Texas Sen. Ted) Cruz and Trump delegates,” Priebus said. “The delegates are the delegates won by the people that are being bound by the decision of the delegates.”

Priebus added, however, that he thought it was unlikely the delegates would alter Rule 40.

“I haven’t heard a whole lot of horsepower out there looking for a change on the rule,” Priebus says. “A few people speaking out in the wilderness, but the truth is there is no, at least at this point, groundswell to start changing the rules at the convention.”

Typically, rules are carried over from convention to convention, Putnam, told us. But the threshold for nomination eligibility has evolved over the last few decades.

“There might be a new version written by the rules committee,” Putnam said, which would then need to be voted on by all of the delegates to the convention. In the 1960s, a rule was added to require nominees to obtain a plurality of delegates in at least three states, as a way to limit the number of people whose names could be placed into nomination. The threshold was later upped to a plurality of delegates in five states.

Putnam believes it will be difficult to change the rule, given that most of the delegates are likely to be supporters of Trump or Cruz and would have a vested interest in keeping the rule as it stands to prevent consideration of another candidate.

At the Republican National Committee winter meeting in Charleston, S.C., there was some discussion of lowering the threshold to candidates who have received just one delegate. But the discussion was tabled, and there did not appear to be widespread support for it, Putnam said.

But that doesn’t mean it won’t be changed. Indeed, Politico reported that all four early appointees to the rules committee for this year’s Republican National Convention indicated they were “prepared to weaken or scrap a rule that could limit the convention’s alternatives to Donald Trump.”

Whether or not the rule is likely to be amended is a matter of political debate. But Cruz’s assertion makes the rule seem hard and fast, when in fact, it can be changed, as it was in 2012.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/03/31/fact-check-kasich-barred-convention-rule/82462626/

[240 is Back]

Fact check: Kasich barred by convention rule?

They loved the rule when it kept outsider Ron Paul out of the race.

But now that it hurts party lapdog Kasick?

[Dos Equis]

Top Republicans talking up Paul Ryan as nominee
One of the nation's best-wired Republicans sees a 54 percent chance that Ryan will end up as the nominee.
By MIKE ALLEN
04/04/16

House Speaker Paul Ryan of Wis. leaves the House Ways and Means Committee room on Capitol Hill in Washington, Wednesday, March 23. | AP Photo

On the eve of the Wisconsin primaries, top Republicans are becoming increasingly vocal about their long-held belief that Speaker Paul Ryan will wind up as the nominee, perhaps on the fourth ballot at a chaotic Cleveland convention.

One of the nation's best-wired Republicans, with an enviable prediction record for this cycle, sees a 60 percent chance of a convention deadlock and a 90 percent chance that delegates turn to Ryan — ergo, a 54 percent chance that Ryan, who'll start the third week of July as chairman of the Republican National Convention, will end it as the nominee.

"He's the most conservative, least establishment member of the establishment," the Republican source said. "That's what you need to be."

Ryan, who's more calculating and ambitious than he lets on, is running the same playbook he did to become speaker: saying he doesn't want it, that it won't happen. In both cases, the maximum leverage is to not want it — and to be begged to do it. He and his staff are trying to be as Shermanesque as it gets. Ryan repeated his lack of interest Monday morning in an interview from Israel with radio host Hugh Hewitt.

Of course in this environment, saying you don't want the job is the only way to get it. If he was seen to be angling for it, he'd be stained and disqualified by the current mess.

But Ryan, 46, a likable Midwesterner, could look too tempting to resist as Republicans finally focus on a beatable Hillary Clinton. He got rave reviews for a "State of American Politics" speech on March 23 (hashtag on his podium: "#ConfidentAmerica," the title of his high-minded manifesto at the Library of Congress in December). In the "State of Politics" address, Ryan offered himself as the anti-Trump (without mentioning The Don): "Politics can be a battle of ideas, not insults."

On "Morning Joe" Monday morning, Joe Scarborough said that if Trump falls even one vote short of a clinch, the convention will "look for someone else": "If Trump doesn't get the number, they'll say they have rules for a reason." And Karl Rove told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt last week: "A fresh face might be the thing that would give us a chance to turn this election and win in November against Hillary."
Top Republicans say "fresh face" is code for "Paul Ryan."

A Ryan friend chuckled when we asked if he wants it, and pointed to last month's address: "That was somebody who was laying out the speech that, in most cases, you'd give six months before you announce you're going to run - when you're going around the country, raising money for your leadership PAC."

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/paul-ryan-republican-nominee-convention-221522#ixzz44sZwGWOv

[Dos Equis]

WSJ: Trump, Cruz Fear GOP Convention May Nominate Kasich

Image: WSJ: Trump, Cruz Fear GOP Convention May Nominate Kasich  (Getty Images)
By Cathy Burke   |    Tuesday, 05 Apr 2016
 
The Wall Street Journal is pushing for the continued presidential run of underdog Gov. John Kasich, asserting rivals Donald Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz want him out because they fear "the convention might want to nominate a potential winner."

In an editorial posted Monday night, the newspaper writes the Ohio governor "did the public service of winning Ohio's delegates" that had Trump won, would have locked up the nomination.

Kasich "deserves a chance to see if he can win Pennsylvania or pick up delegates in the East and California," the editorial states.

Before Tuesday's primary in Wisconsin, Trump had 737 delegates, Cruz 475 and Kasich 143.

"All of a sudden the two Republican presidential front-runners seem unnaturally preoccupied with the guy in third place, and they're teaming up to demand that John Kasich drop out," the editorial states.

"Why not let the voters decide, as Donald Trump and Ted Cruz otherwise like to say?"

The editorial board notes Kasich has "no hope" of reaching the mandated 1,237 delegates needed to cinch the GOP nomination; if no candidate comes to the convention with that number, an open convention would pick its nominee.

"What . . . Trump and Cruz really fear is that the convention might want to nominate a potential winner," the editorial states.

Breaking News at Newsmax.com http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/WSJ-Trump-Cruz-GOP-Convention/2016/04/05/id/722370/#ixzz44yx5DWvM

[Dos Equis]

Fallout: Donald Trump Will Fall 50-100 Delegates Short of 1,237 Needed to Clinch Nomination

Republican presidential hopeful Donald TrumpAFP
by MIKE FLYNN & MICHAEL PATRICK LEAHY
6 Apr 2016

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)’s overwhelming victory in Wisconsin on Tuesday makes it all but impossible for GOP frontrunner Donald Trump to win the 1,237 delegates he needs to secure the nomination ahead of the RNC convention in Cleveland.

Trump currently leads the GOP field with 743 delegates. He would need to win 58.9 percent of the remaining pledged delegates to obtain the simple majority necessary.

A number of the states remaining award delegates proportionally. The bulk of delegates in one critical upcoming state, Pennsylvania, aren’t officially bound to any candidate. The fight for California’s massive 172 delegates will be fought largely in each of the state’s 54 Congressional Districts.

As a result, Breitbart News estimates that Donald Trump will end the primary portion of the nomination fight with 1164 delegates, 74 short of the 1,237 delegates necessary to win the nomination on the first ballot. This estimate assumes Trump’s performance in upcoming contests is consistent with the results prior to Wisconsin.

In other words, it is a static estimate, assuming no great change in the trajectory, tone, or focus of the campaigns. It isn’t based on any future missteps, like those experienced by the Trump campaign ahead of the Wisconsin primary. Our assumption is, in many respects, the most optimistic for the Trump campaign. Because of this, it underscores the steep challenge Donald Trump faces heading into the 4th Quarter of the primary season.

April 19th

The next primary is in Donald Trump’s home state of New York. The state’s 95 delegates are awarded proportionally at both the congressional district level and statewide, unless a candidate receives more than 50 percent of the vote. Trump is currently backed by 53 percent of New York Republicans in the RealClearPolitics average of polls.

If Trump won more than 50 percent of the vote statewide and more than 50 percent in each of the state’s 27 congressional districts, he would win all 95 of the state’s delegates. We do not believe Trump will be able to sweep all of the contests in New York. While his overall polling average is right at the threshold for sweeping the statewide delegates, there isn’t enough support to ensure a sweep of all the state’s congressional districts. Trump’s overall level of support in New York has come down in recent weeks.

Expected Trump delegate gain: +75

April 26th

One week after New York, five states on the East Coast — Connecticut, Maryland, Rhode Island, Delaware, and Pennsylvania — vote in primaries, awarding a total of 172 delegates. The smallest state, Delaware, with 16 delegates, is winner-take-all. The largest prize, Pennsylvania, awards 17 of its 71 delegates to the winner of the statewide vote. The other 54 delegates are directly elected in congressional districts and not bound to support any particular candidate. All of the contests, except Rhode Island, are closed primaries, meaning only registered Republicans can participate.

We assume Donald Trump will win all of these contests, as he has generally performed very well in this region. The voters here are also more moderate than other states, blunting the appeal of the Cruz campaign. Kasich ought to perform well in this area, at least enough to win some delegates.

In Pennsylvania, 54 delegates are directly elected in the commonwealth’s 18 congressional districts. The delegates run without any candidate affiliation listed on the ballot. This puts an enormous premium on campaign organization and infrastructure, as voters have to know which delegate is supporting a particular candidate. In every contest so far, Cruz has had a better campaign organization than either Trump or Kasich.

Expected Trump delegate gain: +95

May 3rd

Indiana is the only state holding a primary on this date. It has 57 delegates, awarding 30 to the winner of the statewide vote and three to the winner of each of the state’s nine congressional districts. The state is an emerging battleground, voting for Barack Obama in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012. It is a microcosm of the agricultural midwest — the industrial rust belt and suburban office parks.

We expect Ted Cruz to win the state after his performance in Wisconsin. We also expect Trump and Kasich to pick up delegates in specific congressional districts.

Expected Trump delegate gain: +6

May 10th

Nebraska and West Virginia vote on May 10th, likely allowing Cruz and Trump to each pick up a state. Nebraska, with 36 delegates, is the biggest single prize, as it is winner-take-all. It is a closed primary, meaning only Republicans can vote. We expect Cruz to win, as he has performed very well in the Plains region.

West Virginia is an open primary, meaning that Democrats and Independents can vote in the Republican contest. The state has 34 total delegates, awarding 25 to the statewide winner and three delegates in each of the state’s three congressional districts. The district delegates are elected directly, meaning the top three delegate vote-getters are elected, regardless of how their candidate performs. We expect Cruz to pick up a few delegates at the district level but Trump to win statewide. Its voters match the demographics where Trump has performed well this primary.

Expected Trump delegate gain: +20

May 17th

Oregon votes and awards 28 delegates. The primary is only open to Republican voters and the state’s delegates are awarded proportionally, based on the statewide vote. Polling has been limited in Oregon and primary voting there can often be more conservative than the overall state’s political profile. We expect all candidates to pick up delegates here.

Expected Trump delegate gain: +10

May 24th

Washingon closes out the Northwest with a closed primary, awarding its 44 delegates proportionally. The state is similar to Oregon and we expect each candidate to win some delegates.

Expected Trump delegate gain: +20

June 7th

The final day of primary voting and one of the richer prizes, with 303 delegates at stake across the country. The states voting, California, Montana, New Mexico, South Dakota, and New Jersey cover almost every region of the country. Three of these, California, New Mexico, and South Dakota are closed primaries. New Jersey, Montana, and South Dakota are winner-take-all, while the others are proportional.

Based on the assumptions above, Donald Trump will have to win 263 of the day’s delegates, 87 percent, to secure the 1,237 delegates necessary to seal the nomination before the RNC convention. That is a very tall order, based on how delegates are awarded on this day.

We expect Donald Trump to win New Jersey and its 51 delegates ,while Ted Cruz will capture Montana’s 27 delegates. South Dakota is a toss-up currently, because there is little polling or past election info to accurately gauge the state. Our assumption is awarding it to Trump here, but its 29 delegates could easily swing to Cruz.

The main battleground on June 7th will be California, with a rich 172 delegates. The winner of the statewide vote, however, only receives 10 delegates. The remaining delegates go to the winner of each of the state’s 53 congressional district. The candidate receiving the most votes in each district wins three delegates.

Current polling shows Trump with an eight point lead, but the race has narrowed considerably in the past several weeks. We expect the race to narrow even more as the realization that the GOP nomination hangs in the balance becomes evident. Only registered Republicans can vote in the primary, but we still expect the state will shatter voter turnout records.

At this stage of the campaign, we are tapping Trump to win the bulk of the delegates in California. We estimate he will capture 94 of the state’s 172 delegates. The race, however, will be fought out in each congressional district, putting a big premium on campaign organization and infrastructure.

Expected Trump delegate gain: +192

Final

Allowing some variance, Trump will close out the primary phase of the nomination contest 50-100 delegates short of the 1,237 minimum he needs to secure the nomination on the first ballot. Unless there is a dramatic change in the trajectory of the race, or outside events, it is very hard to envision a scenario where Trump wins 1,237 delegates before the convention. It is possible, too, that he falls much shorter of that goal. This analysis assumes that Cruz’s surge in Wisconsin was a blip and won’t be repeated.

Even with that caveat, it shows the high hurdle facing Trump. This is to say nothing about possible convention rules changes, delegates held by other candidates, or the actions of unbound or RNC delegates. We will look at those scenarios in the future.

This analysis simply looks at the pledged delegates to be awarded over the next two months. It is almost impossible for Trump to secure the nomination outright before the RNC convention.

One final caution. As mentioned early, this is a rather static analysis of the upcoming primaries, which is somewhat favorable to Trump, as he is the current frontrunner. All campaigns, though, have their own rhythm. Except for the final day of voting on June 7th, we are entering a period where the contests are spread out and concentrated on individual states and regions.

The early phases of the primaries were a rapid-fire succession of contests, with voting occuring every few days. With at least a week between these upcoming contests, voters have more time to absorb results in other states and actions and statements by the campaigns. The individual candidates also have more time to make their pitches to specific states and voters than earlier in the process.

In the end, though, the Republican nomination will be decided on the convention floor in Cleveland in July. Whether it is decided in two ballots or 20, it will be a convention for the history books.

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/04/06/donald-trump-will-fall-50-100-delegates-short-1237-needed-clinch-nomination/

[Dos Equis]

Sanders campaign talks up contested convention, despite long odds
By Judson Berger 
Published April 06, 2016 
FoxNews.com

Just a few weeks ago, only the Republicans were talking seriously about the possibility of a contested presidential convention. Now, Bernie Sanders’ campaign is ratcheting up predictions that Democrats, too, could have an open convention in July.

The odds remain stacked against the Vermont senator, no matter what his campaign says. And Hillary Clinton’s campaign is aggressively batting down talk of a Philadelphia free-for-all this summer.

But the Democratic underdog’s recent winning streak – bolstered Tuesday by a decisive victory in the Wisconsin primary – has dashed for now Clinton’s hopes of swiftly sewing up the nomination and pivoting to the general election, certainly not while the springtime cherry blossoms are still on the trees in Washington. The Sanders camp’s bold predictions speak to their hope that they can now drag out the race until July by blunting the front-runner’s pledged delegate gains.

“It will be an open convention, likely with neither candidate having a majority of pledged delegates," Sanders campaign manager Jeff Weaver told CNN on Tuesday.

Those predictions were met with a round of reality checks by team Clinton.

Campaign manager Robby Mook blasted out a fundraising memo Tuesday night, as Sanders was rolling to victory in Wisconsin, saying Clinton’s delegate lead “is nearly insurmountable.”

He said the Sanders camp, in pushing for an open convention, is trying to “flip delegates’ votes, overturning the will of the voters.”

The big question is what specifically it would take for Clinton to avoid an open convention.

The complicating factor is the role played by “superdelegates,” party insiders free to support whomever they want. When those delegates and “pledged” delegates awarded via primaries and caucuses are added together, Clinton has a huge 1,748-1,058 delegate lead.

She would need to win just 635 of the remaining delegates – roughly a third -- to get a majority of total delegates, or 2,383, before the convention. Given her record in the primaries so far, that’s hardly a heavy lift.

But when only pledged delegates are counted, Clinton’s lead is narrower, at 1,279-1,027.

Despite Weaver’s comment, Clinton could easily win a majority of them with roughly 43 percent of the remaining pledged delegates.

The Sanders campaign, however, may be setting the bar much higher. If they argue Clinton must win 2,383 pledged delegates to clinch the nomination – in other words, hit a majority of all delegates counting only pledged delegates – she would need more than 60 percent of the remaining pledged field.

Democratic strategist Mary Anne Marsh said she thinks that’s what the Sanders campaign is saying.

Whether the Democratic National Committee sees it the same way is unclear.

Asked specifically what it would take to avoid an open convention, a DNC official reiterated that 2,383 represents the majority of all delegates, but would not speculate beyond that.

The Sanders campaign is not entirely clear, either, on how an open convention would emerge. 

Sanders press secretary Symone D. Sanders told FoxNews.com the campaign is focused on simply winning states, predicting a strong showing in the Wyoming caucuses this weekend, before the race heads next to New York and other delegate-rich territory.

“There is a path to the nomination for us,” she said, adding that they will go to Philadelphia but not elaborating on what exactly might trigger an open convention in their eyes.

So what’s the end-game?

Even if Clinton’s pledged delegate support is a little short, the former secretary of state still has hundreds of superdelegates on her side.

Weaver noted to CNN that the superdelegates “don’t count” until they vote at the convention. But unless the Sanders camp could somehow wrest away huge swaths of that support, the best case scenario for Sanders might be an open convention in name only – where superdelegates put Clinton over the top as soon as the voting begins.

“She’ll use the superdelegates to finish it off if she doesn’t hit that bar [with pledged delegates],” strategist Mary Anne Marsh said.

She, too, described Clinton’s lead as “insurmountable,” and played down the possibility of a contested convention.

“This is more wishful thinking on the part of the Sanders campaign than anything based on facts or math,” she told FoxNews.com, while questioning whether Sanders might try to use his delegates as leverage to extract some wishlist item at the convention.

Mook said in a memo posted on Medium that “the delegate math is on our side.” He noted that even among pledged delegates, Clinton has a sizeable lead, and the upcoming contests pose another challenge for Sanders.

“[W]ith each passing week, it’s becoming increasingly unlikely that Senator Sanders will be able to catch up. In order to do so, Sanders has to win the four remaining delegate-rich primaries — New York, Pennsylvania, California, and New Jersey — with roughly 60 percent of the vote,” Mook said.

Clinton in the meantime is taking a tougher tone toward Sanders, even telling Politico’s Glenn Thrush she’s not sure he’s a real Democrat.

“He’s a relatively new Democrat, and, in fact, I’m not even sure he is one,” she said. “He’s running as one. So I don’t know quite how to characterize him.”

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/04/06/sanders-campaign-talks-up-contested-convention-despite-long-odds.html?intcmp=hpbt1

[Dos Equis]

Ted Cruz, Not Paul Ryan, Would Probably Win A Contested Convention
The ‘establishment’ might not like Cruz, but the delegates likely will.
By NATE SILVER
APR 6, 2016

Ted Cruz during a primary night campaign event in Milwaukee on Tuesday. PAUL SANCYA / AP
It’s like something out of an Aaron Sorkin script. After their bitterly divisive primary, the Republican delegates come together to nominate John Kasich on the fourth ballot at a contested convention in Cleveland, despite his having won only his home state of Ohio. Or they choose House Speaker Paul Ryan, despite his not having run in the primaries at all. Balloons descend from the ceiling, celestial choirs sing and everything is right again with the Republican Party, which goes on to beat Hillary Clinton in a landslide in November.

As I said, it’s like something out of a TV show. In other words: probably fiction. It’s not that hard to imagine a contested convention. In fact, with Donald Trump’s path to 1,237 delegates looking tenuous, especially after his loss in Wisconsin on Tuesday night, it’s a real possibility. And it’s not hard to see how Republicans might think of Kasich or Ryan as good nominees. If Republicans were starting from scratch, both might be pretty good picks, especially from the perspective of the party “establishment” in Washington.

But Republicans won’t be starting from scratch, and the “establishment” won’t pick the party’s nominee. The 2,472 delegates in Cleveland will. And most of them will be chosen at state or local party conventions a long way from Washington. Few will be household names, having quietly attended party gatherings in Fargo, North Dakota, or Cheyenne, Wyoming, for years with little remuneration or recognition. Although the proverbial Acela-riding insiders might dream of Ryan or Kasich, there are indications that the rank-and-file delegates are into Ted Cruz — and they’re the ones who will have votes in Cleveland.

To recap a bit, the Republican presidential voting process is separate from the delegate selection process in most states. In South Carolina, for instance, most delegates are selected through a series of county, congressional district and state conventions. Although those delegates are bound to Trump (who won the state’s primary on Feb. 20) on the first ballot, they could peel off and vote for another candidate after that.1

There are some states where delegates are selected directly on the ballot (as in Maryland, for instance) and others where slates are submitted by the candidates (as in New Hampshire) — these are a fairly small minority. Below, you’ll find a table showing the Republicans’ delegate selection method in all states and territories, according to the Republican Party’s rulebook.

TIED TO PRES. PREF. VOTE   NOT TIED TO PRES. PREF. VOTE
STATE OR TERRITORY   BY CANDIDATES   ON PRIMARY BALLOT   AT STATE OR LOCAL CONVENTIONS   BY STATE OR LOCAL PARTY COMMITTEES   RNC MEMBERS
Alabama      47         3
Alaska         25      3
American Samoa         6      3
Arizona         55      3
Arkansas         12   25   3
California   169            3
Colorado         34      3
Connecticut   25            3
Delaware         13      3
D.C.         16      3
Florida         81   15   3
Georgia         73      3
Guam         6      3
Hawaii   16            3
Idaho   29            3
Illinois      54   12      3
Indiana            54   3
Iowa         27      3
Kansas            37   3
Kentucky         43      3
Louisiana         43      3
Maine         20      3
Maryland      24      11   3
Massachusetts         27   12   3
Michigan         56      3
Minnesota         35      3
Mississippi         37      3
Missouri         49      3
Montana         24      3
Nebraska         33      3
Nevada         27      3
New Hampshire   20            3
New Jersey      48         3
New Mexico         21      3
New York            92   3
North Carolina         69      3
North Dakota         25      3
No. Mariana Isl.         6      3
Ohio      63         3
Oklahoma         40      3
Oregon         25      3
Pennsylvania      54*      14   3
Puerto Rico      20         3
Rhode Island      16         3
South Carolina         47      3
South Dakota         26      3
Tennessee      41      14   3
Texas         152      3
Utah         37      3
Vermont         13      3
Virgin Islands         6      3
Virginia         46      3
Washington         41      3
West Virginia      31         3
Wisconsin         24   15   3
Wyoming         26      3
Total   259   398   1,358   289   168
Share of total   10%   16%   55%   12%   7%
How are Republican delegates chosen?
* 54 Pennsylvania delegates are directly elected but unbound to any candidate.

SOURCE: REPUBLICAN NATIONAL COMMITTEE PRESIDENTIAL PROCESS PLANNING BOOK

Without getting too lost in the details,2 there are five major delegate selection methods:

Candidates choose their delegates (10 percent of delegates). In some states, candidates name a slate of delegates. These states include California, making it even more important to the Republicans’ delegate math; delegates won in California are likely to remain loyal to their candidates longer than in most places.
Directly elected (16 percent of delegates). Other delegates, as I mentioned, are chosen directly on the primary ballot. Usually, the ballot indicates which candidate the delegate prefers, and the delegates are bound to that candidate. An important exception is Pennsylvania, where 54 delegates will be elected on the ballot as uncommitted.

In these first two cases, there’s a strong link between the presidential preference vote and delegate selection. The link isn’t perfect — weird things can happen when voters are asked to choose from among a number of delegates they’ve never heard of — but it’s pretty close. However, these two groups combined will represent only 26 percent of all delegates in Cleveland (or 24 percent if Pennsylvania’s uncommitted delegates aren’t included in the tally).

The other delegate selection methods are as follows:

Selected at state or local conventions (55 percent of delegates). The majority of delegates, as I mentioned, are chosen through a series of state and local conventions or caucuses. This is grass-roots democracy at work, with somewhere between dozens and thousands of Republican activists attending these events.

Selected by state or local party committees (12 percent of delegates). In a few other cases, however, party insiders are responsible for appointing some delegates. The state executive committee names 14 at-large delegates in Tennessee, for instance, a point of contention because these delegates are thought not to be favorable to Trump even though he won the state.

Republican National Committee members (7 percent of delegates). Finally, the 168 members of the RNC — three in each state — are automatically chosen as delegates. This used to be an important group because these delegates were uncommitted even on the first ballot in many states, making them equivalent to the Democrats’ “superdelegates.” But this year, Republican rules usually bind them to the statewide winner on the first ballot. Like other delegates, they may be free to choose whom they want later on.

We know that Cruz is likely to do well among delegates chosen through state and local conventions because we’ve seen that demonstrated quite a few times already. This is most obvious in the three states — Colorado, Wyoming and North Dakota — where there was no presidential preference vote. Cruz won nine of the 12 delegates chosen at county conventions in Wyoming (Trump won one), and Cruz has gotten six of six picked so far at congressional district conventions in Colorado (more Colorado congressional districts will choose their delegates this week). In North Dakota, delegates are technically unbound, but Cruz got a highly favorable slate of delegates approved at the state convention on Sunday; only one or two delegates of the 25 chosen appear favorably disposed to Trump.

Cruz has also gotten good results at state and local conventions in states that do hold a presidential preference vote. In fact, considering that relatively few states have completed their convention process, it’s remarkable how many examples you can find of Cruz cleaning Trump’s clock: for example, in Arizona, Georgia, Louisiana, South Carolina and South Dakota. It’s possible that Trump will improve his delegate-selection efforts in subsequent states, and with his chance of winning the GOP nomination down to 49 percent at prediction markets, he’s become a tempting buy-low opportunity. But in terms of delegate selection, Trump has nowhere to go but up, making it more essential for him to win 1,237 delegates by California or come very close to it.

We have fewer examples of how Cruz will fare among delegates chosen by party committees, but Tennessee represents an initial success for him. Another good proxy for how state party insiders are leaning is endorsements from state legislators. Cruz has about six times more of those than Trump and more than twice as many as Kasich, according to data collected by Boris Shor and Will Cubbison. Furthermore, Cruz has been fairly popular among state legislators for some time, according to Shor and Cubbison; they’re not merely coming to him out of desperation.

Then there are the 168 RNC delegates. Perhaps they’d be favorably disposed to Ryan or Kasich, but they represent a relatively small share of the delegate pool. And with strong ties to their state parties, they don’t all fit the stereotype of Washington insiders either.

It also helps Cruz that he, like Trump, will have won a fair number of delegates from the first two categories — directly elected delegates and delegates chosen by the candidates. True, these may be only about a quarter of delegates combined, but those are delegates that a candidate like Ryan would have a hard time winning over, meaning that he’d need a supermajority of delegates from the other categories. Also, in some states, delegates are bound based on the primary or caucus results for more than one ballot. So while Cruz could be a viable choice from the second ballot onward, it might not be until the fourth ballot or so that Ryan would really have a shot.

It’s true that a contested convention is uncharted territory in the modern political era, so we can’t be completely sure what the delegates would do. The 2,472 delegates have nearly unlimited authority to rewrite the convention rules, and if most of the them really wanted to see Ryan or Kasich nominated, they could probably find a way to do it. Or, if the voting was a stalemate between Trump and Cruz for many ballots, a true dark horse — maybe someone far more obscure than Ryan or Kasich — could emerge as a compromise. We can’t rule out these outcomes.

But we’re also learning more and more about who those delegates are now that they’re being chosen. They’re not members of the Washington “establishment.” Instead, they’re mostly grass-roots activists, and many of them want Cruz to be their next president.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ted-cruz-not-paul-ryan-would-probably-win-a-contested-convention/

[Dos Equis]

Wisconsin gives GOP senators new hope that Trump will be defeated
By Alexander Bolton - 04/07/16

The thumping Donald Trump suffered in Tuesday’s Wisconsin primary has given new hope to GOP senators that their party won’t enter November with the businessman as their presidential nominee.

Republican lawmakers say Ted Cruz’s victory in Wisconsin makes it unlikely that Trump will secure the 1,237 delegates he needs to clinch the nomination, setting up a fight at the convention this July in Cleveland.

“Yes, I think its’ going to be contested because he’s not going to get to 1,237, and that’s good for the Republican Party,” said Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.).
If Trump doesn’t win on the first ballot, a growing number say, he’s likely to lose the nomination to Cruz or someone else.

Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) said “it becomes difficult, more difficult,” for Trump to win the nomination if he does not have the magic number heading into the convention.

Sen. Cory Gardner (R-Colo.) said simply, “I don’t believe he’ll be the nominee.”

All three senators endorsed Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), who dropped out of the race after losing his home state of Florida to Trump last month.

None of them have endorsed a new candidate, but their comments reflect the opposition to Trump among many office-holders in Washington who fear his name at the top of the GOP ticket could lead to big Republican losses in the House and Senate.

Many GOP senators harbor an intense personal dislike toward Cruz, who has repeatedly been a thorn in the side of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.).

Now that Cruz is the best bet to beat Trump, however, he’s looking more appealing to his colleagues.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who joked at the Congressional Correspondents Dinner in February that someone could get away with murdering Cruz on the Senate floor because he’s so loathed, now leads the charge to rally around him.

Notably, however, Graham’s comments are focused more on stopping Trump than making Cruz the nominee.

“It’s pretty clear to me that we need to stop Donald Trump. I think he’s a disaster. Ted Cruz has the best narrative in terms of success. I think within the Republican Party he has the best chance to win these states to stop Trump,” Graham told reporters Tuesday.

More than 90 percent of the delegates at the convention will be bound to various candidates — largely based on their performances in the primaries and caucuses — but on a second ballot more than 50 percent become unbound and will be free to vote for whomever they support. About 80 percent of the delegates would become unbound on a third ballot.

Many of those delegates are party regulars who are more likely to vote for Cruz, John Kasich or another longtime Republican over Trump, who until recently gave hundreds of thousands of dollars in contributions to both parties.

“I think the center of gravity shifts significantly to Cruz if Trump doesn’t get to 1,237,” said one Senate GOP insider. “If they open it up to unbound delegates, they are by definition party regulars and more likely to support a real Republican.

While Trump suffered a significant defeat in Wisconsin, however, he remains the clear favorite to go to Cleveland with a large lead in delegates.

To win the nomination before Cleveland, Trump would have to win 60 percent of the remaining delegates — a tall order. Still, it could be difficult for the GOP to wrest the nomination away from Trump and his supporters if he has a large lead over Cruz and missed out on the 1,237 threshold by a few dozen delegates.

Trump also may have better days on the campaign trail ahead of him.

A Monmouth poll released Wednesday showed Trump with 52 percent support in New York, which would give him a big chunk of its 95 delegates in the April 19 primary. Cruz lagged in a distant third place in the poll, with only 17 percent support.

Trump is also expected to do well in neighboring Connecticut, which has 28 delegates and holds its primary on April 26.

“He’s suffered a setback” in Wisconsin, said a GOP senator who said he and many colleagues are uneasy about Trump’s candidacy because “nobody knows who he listens to.”

But the lawmaker added, “It’s premature. Trump’s way ahead in New York. It’s unpredictable.”

Privately, many GOP lawmakers are vehement that Trump cannot unify the party and will not be the nominee unless he gets to 1,237.

“That’s an oxymoron, Donald Trump and unifying the Republican Party,” said one senator, who requested anonymity to speak frankly. “Donald Trump is not the Republican Party I’ve known for half a century.”

The lawmaker said he might vote for Trump over Hillary Clinton but could never envision himself embracing the front-runner’s vision.

“Is he going to bring me over to his political philosophy, which is insulting and kicking people? No,” the lawmaker added.

If Trump goes to Cleveland short of 1,237 but with a big lead in delegates over Cruz, they say he will not emerge with the GOP crown.

“We have to go a little further, but if he doesn’t get 1,237, I don’t think he’s the nominee,” another senator said.

A third GOP senator said he was “praying every night for someone with integrity, intelligence and ideas to win.”

“I think Trump has a ceiling. If he doesn’t get to 1,237, I think it’s going to be very difficult” to win the nomination at the convention, the third senator said.

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/275416-wisconsin-gives-gop-senators-new-hope-that-trump-will-be-defeated

[Dos Equis]

Popular vote results for Florida, Ill, Ohio, NC, Mo, and DC and the totals to date:

Tuesday's results:
3,196,905 = Votes for Trump
4,499,938 = Votes for other candidates

Total:
7,446,394 = Votes for Trump
12,309,275 = Votes for other candidates

Popular vote totals after Arizona, Utah, and Wisconsin:

8,107,544 = Votes for Trump
13,333,131 = Votes for other candidates

[Dos Equis]

Trump repeatedly getting outsmarted and outworked. 

Cruz, Rubio join forces in Arkansas to block Trump delegates
By DAVID M. DRUCKER (@DAVIDMDRUCKER)
4/12/16

Ted Cruz's and Marco Rubio's supporters have teamed up in Arkansas to pack the state delegation with individuals who'll turn against Donald Trump in a contested convention.

Since Rubio ended his presidential bid March 15, his network of party insiders has lined up behind Cruz to win delegates who'd vote for the Texas senator once they're no longer bound to Trump in a floor fight. Trump won Arkansas' GOP primary March 1 with 32.8 percent of the vote compared to Cruz's 30.5 percent and Rubio's 24.9 percent. But Cruz's canny operatives, with Rubio riding shotgun, is likely to thwart Trump in the delegate election.

Trump's organization is as sloppy in Arkansas as elsewhere, just as Cruz's is an efficient machine in state after state. This could ding the Donald, costing him as many as 25 delegates after a first inconclusive ballot. Cruz, who finished with 15 out of the available 40 delegates in primary voting, stands to gain all 16 Trump delegates and the 9 won by Rubio.

Bart Hester, a top Rubio organizer in Arkansas, said he's filling Rubio's delegate slate with individuals committed to opposing Trump in Cleveland. "I would certainly hope it would be someone who has a leaning toward Cruz rather than Trump," Hester, a state senator, told the Washington Examiner on Monday.

"I've got a great working relationship with the state director for Rubio and I think generally what we're looking for is about the same," added state Rep. Bob Ballinger, Cruz's Arkansas co-chairman. "We'll be working together to make sure the right delegates are selected."

According to Arkansas GOP rules, Rubio's nine delegates are bound to vote for him on the first ballot in Cleveland, even though he suspended his White House bid and stopped actively campaigning nearly a month ago. Most high profile Arkansas Republicans endorsed Rubio heading into the state's Super Tuesday, "SEC" primary contest.

A list of big name delegate candidates, and which candidates they are pledging to support, reveals the institutional support for Cruz and Rubio in Arkansas (none are listed as potential delegates for Ohio Gov. John Kasich.) Some Republicans on this list, obtained by the Examiner, appear to be keeping their options open. Sens. John Boozman and Tom Cotton are running to join slates fielded by Cruz, Rubio and Trump; so is Rep. Bruce Westerman.

But the rest of the Arkansas' federal delegation, and the state's top two officials in Little Rock, are for Cruz, Rubio, or both. Rep. Rick Crawford is running as a Rubio delegate; Rep. French Hill to support Cruz or Rubio; and Rep. Steve Womack to back Rubio. Gov. Asa Hutchinson and Lt. Gov. Tim Griffin are running as Rubio delegates. High profile state and federal lawmakers are basically assured of winning delegate slots.

That is just one reason why the delegation that arrives in Cleveland is likely to be dominated by "never Trump" forces. The other is Trump's lax effort to post delegate candidates that he can depend on to defend his winnings from the primary.

"The Trump Campaign continues what seems to be an ecletic version of a campaign," said a GOP insider in Arkansas, who requested anonymity in order to speak candidly. "They're not sending their preferred list, they're not having people vetted to make sure they're Trump people."

Trump leads in the race for 1,237 Republican nominating delegates, equal to 50 percent plus one, with 743. Cruz sits at 545 after sweeping delegate elections in Colorado over the weekend, and Kasich trails with 143. Most delegates are only bound to vote for the candidate that won the primary or caucus in their state on the first or second ballot on the convention floor.

After that, the delegates become free agents.

By working delegate elections in precincts, counties and states Trump won, including Arkansas, Cruz is loading slates with loyalists who are pledging to support him for the nomination once unbound. In many of these contests, the Trump campaign has suffered from disorganization — or from being absent from the process. Delegate candidates tend to be comprised of grassroots party regulars, another factor that could hurt Trump.

In Arkansas, delegates will be elected in a series of local elections in April, culminating with meeting of the state central committee on May 14. Candidates had to meet a Feb. 19 deadline to file to run. The Cruz campaign was actively engaged in recruiting candidates going back several months. The Trump campaign was, and remains, largely absent, Arkansas GOP insiders say, mirroring the front-runner's problems in other states.

"They seem to be going Sen. Cruz's way," Marcela White, Cruz's political coordinator in Arkansas, said of the fight for delegates. "It looks good for him."

Reached by telephone, a grassroots organizer for Trump in Arkansas referred the Examiner to a more senior member of the billionaire's team in the state. At press time, that individual had not returned a voice mail requesting comment.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/cruz-rubio-join-forces-in-arkansas-to-block-donald-trump-delegates/article/2588237

[240 is Back]

Trump repeatedly getting outsmarted and outworked. 

Trump has put ego/image above competence.   

How will he make these awesome deals to make the US great.... when he cannot even make deals to come up favorably in these delegate races?  He's getting screwed, over and over.  How will he "hire the greatest people to get the best results" when his whole delegate chase is being run by a Dole employee that's been out of the game for 20 years? 

His kids running the GOTV effort didn't even bother registering to vote.  It's all image, no substance.  All hat, no cattle. 

[Dos Equis]

Paul Ryan: 'Let Me Be Clear — I Will Not Accept the Nomination'

Image: Paul Ryan: 'Let Me Be Clear — I Will Not Accept the Nomination'
Tuesday, 12 Apr 2016

House of Representatives Speaker Paul Ryan said on Tuesday he would reject any attempt to draft him as a presidential candidate, trying to silence speculation that he could surface as a unity choice should Donald Trump or Ted Cruz falter. 

"Let me be clear: I do not want nor will I accept the nomination of our party," Ryan said in remarks at the Republican National Committee.

Ryan, the top elected Republican in Washington and the party's 2012 vice presidential candidate, has been the subject of persistent speculation that he could emerge as the nominee if an impasse over the party's pick develops at the July 18-21 Republican National Convention in Cleveland.

In an interview with Milwaukee's WISN radio earlier on Tuesday, Ryan said: "I am going to try again today to put this bed. The answer is 'No' and my strong opinion is, if it goes to an open convention ... my answer is the delegates should pick among the people who actually ran for president this year ...

"I made a really clear choice not to run for president. Therefore, I will not be nominated. I will not allow my name to be placed in nomination and it will not be me. ...I just want to be really crystal clear," he said.

Ryan has repeatedly said he is not interested in entering the presidential race, but advocates for such a scenario have pointed out that he was cool to becoming House speaker until he was finally persuaded to take over from John Boehner last year.

Republicans who see a disaster looming in the Nov. 8 presidential election if Trump or U.S. Senator Cruz of Texas is the nominee have harbored hopes of drafting a popular party figure like Ryan or 2012 candidate Mitt Romney.

For that to happen, no candidate would have garnered the 1,237 delegates required to win the nomination on the first ballot at the convention, and delegates there would have to approve a consensus alternative on a second or subsequent ballot.

Ryan's announcement came on a day when long-shot Republican presidential candidate John Kasich portrayed himself as an antidote to what he called the divisive politics of Trump and Cruz and criticized them as wanting to take the United States down a "path of darkness."

Kasich's "two paths" speech in New York City was an effort to distinguish himself from his rivals and carve out a space for himself as a positive, reasonable conservative a week before New York state's Republican and Democratic primaries on April 19.

Kasich - running a distant third behind Trump and Cruz and with no chance of capturing the Republican nomination unless he can emerge from a contested convention - did not mention Trump and Cruz by name but left no doubt as to who he was talking about.

He lashed out at Trump proposals to deport 11 million illegal immigrants and impose protectionist trade policies. He ridiculed Cruz's idea for a business flat tax, calling it a value-added tax. These are examples of a path of darkness, he said.

"Some who feed off of the fears and anger that is felt by some of us and exploit it feed their own insatiable desire for fame or attention. That could drive America down into a ditch, not make us great again," Kasich said, referring to Trump's signature line.

As 14 other rivals have dropped out of the race, Kasich has doggedly stayed in even though he has underperformed, winning only his home state of Ohio. But his goal is to emerge from a contested convention as a unifying nominee for the November general election, one who polls well against Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton.

"A united America is undefeatable," Kasich said. "We are an exceptional country."

Whether his speech will have an impact on the race at this late stage is far from certain.

Trump is favored to win the April 19 primary in his home state. He holds a huge lead in opinion polls there, with Kasich running a distant second and Cruz in third place.

A victory for Trump would help tamp down concerns among his supporters that he is suddenly vulnerable after Cruz beat him in Wisconsin last week and won all Republican delegates in Colorado on Saturday.

In some good news for Trump, he was formally declared the winner of Missouri's Republican primary, which was held on March 15.

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/ryan-run-republican-president/2016/04/12/id/723488/#ixzz45eEEzYpP

[240 is Back]

LOL!  Paul Ryan is Frank Underwood.

5 Times Paul Ryan Said He’s Not Running for Speaker of the House

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/04/04/5-times-paul-ryan-said-hes-not-running-speaker-house/

[Dos Equis]

Cruz likely to block Trump on a second ballot at the GOP convention
By Ed O'Keefe
April 13, 2016

Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz is close to ensuring that Donald Trump cannot win the GOP nomination on a second ballot at the party’s July convention in Cleveland, scooping up scores of delegates who have pledged to vote for him instead of the front-runner if given the chance.

The push by Cruz means that it is more essential than ever for Trump to clinch the nomination by winning a majority of delegates to avoid a contested and drawn-out convention fight, which Trump seems almost certain to lose.

The GOP race now rests on two cliffhangers: Can Trump lock up the nomination before Cleveland? And if not, can Cruz cobble together enough delegates to win a second convention vote if Trump fails in the first?

Trump’s path to amassing the 1,237 delegates he needs to win outright has only gotten narrower after losing to Cruz in Wisconsin and other recent contests, and would require him to perform better in the remaining states than he has to this point.

In addition, based on the delegate selections made by states and territories, Cruz is poised to pick up at least 130 more votes on a second ballot, according to a Washington Post analysis. That tally surpasses 170 delegates under less conservative assumptions — a number that could make it impossible for Trump to emerge victorious.

That is why the race centers on the fevered hunt for delegates across the country. The intensity of the fight has sparked another round of caustic rhetoric — including allegations from party leaders that Trump supporters are making death threats.

“It’s unfortunate politics has reached a new low. These type of threats have no place in politics,” said Kyle Babcock, a Republican delegate from Indiana’s 3rd Congressional District. He received an email from a Trump supporter who warned, “Think before you take a step down the wrong path.”

[The art of the steal: Dealmaker Trump struggles with the GOP delegate race]

Cruz’s chances rest on exploiting a wrinkle in the GOP rule book: that delegates assigned to vote for Trump at the convention do not actually have to be Trump supporters. Cruz is particularly focused on getting loyalists elected to delegate positions even in states that the senator from Texas lost.


On Wednesday in Indiana, for example, Republican leaders are finalizing a delegate slate that will include party activists unlikely to vote for Trump in the state’s May primary. Cruz also is poised to sweep Wyoming’s 26 delegates this weekend in a state where Trump’s campaign did not seriously compete. In Arkansas, Cruz supporters are exploring ways to topple Trump when delegates are chosen next month. And Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) has refused to release 171 delegates he won when he was in the race, signaling that he may contribute to the anti-Trump push in Cleveland.

Cruz said this week that he thinks the odds of a contested convention are “very high.”

“In Cleveland, I believe we will have an enormous advantage,” he told radio talk-show host Glenn Beck.
Trump has a commanding lead in total delegates and the overall vote total, but has complained that Republican leaders are conspiring against him in a bid to silence his supporters.

“The RNC should be ashamed of itself for allowing this to happen,” Trump said Tuesday night while campaigning in Rome, N.Y.

Paul Manafort, a senior adviser to Trump, said in an interview that he is confident Cruz will never have a chance to convert Trump delegates.

“Just because [Cruz] has won some delegates in a state where we have the delegates voting for us is not relevant until and unless there’s a second ballot,” Manafort said. “There’s not going to be a second ballot.”

As the battle for delegates has intensified, so too have emotions. Craig Dunn, who was elected Saturday as a Republican delegate from Indiana’s 4th Congressional District, said he has received several threatening phone calls and emails after criticizing Trump in recent news reports.

“When they reference burials and your family in the same email, and telling you that you’re being watched, that’s concerning,” he said.

In Colorado, Republicans are planning a rally Friday to call attention to threats made against GOP chairman Steve House. He said his office received 3,000 phone calls “with many being the trashiest you can imagine” after a state party convention last weekend awarded all 34 delegates to Cruz.

“Shame on the people who think somehow that it is right to threaten me and my family over not liking the outcome of an election,” he wrote on Facebook.

Cruz told Beck on Tuesday that threats made by Trump supporters, including those made by the businessman’s longtime confidant Roger Stone, are “the tactic of union thugs. That is violence. It is oppressive.”

Stone recently told an interviewer that Trump supporters would track down delegates at their hotel rooms in Cleveland if they break away from Trump.

Manafort said that “it’s certainly not part of our policy” to threaten violence, but accused “abusive” Cruz supporters of confronting Trump’s backers at party meetings nationwide.

When the presidential nomination vote is held at the convention, 95 percent of the delegates will be bound to the results in their states for the first vote, giving Trump his best shot at securing a majority.

But if Trump falls short, the convention will cast a second ballot in which more than 1,800 delegates from 31 states — nearly 60 percent of the total — will be unbound and allowed to vote however they want. By the third round, 80 percent of the delegates would be free, sparking a potential free-for-all that could continue for several more rounds.

That is the crux of the state-by-state battle that is playing out over the next two months as Republicans gather at the precinct, county, congressional district and statewide level to choose convention delegates.

“If we go into a contested convention, we’re gonna have a ton of delegates, Donald is gonna have a ton of delegates, and it’s gonna be a battle in Cleveland to see who can earn a majority of the delegates that were elected by the people,” Cruz told a meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition in Las Vegas on Saturday.

He predicted that the first ballot “will be the highest vote total Donald Trump receives. And on a subsequent ballot, we’re gonna win the nomination.”

If Cruz prevails, it will be because of what supporters are doing for him nationwide with what they say is little direct input from his campaign headquarters.

In Arkansas, Republicans will not meet until next month to finalize their delegate slate, but state lawmakers who probably will win a position are talking about voting for Cruz on the second ballot.

“For the vast majority of Cruz voters, Rubio was their second choice, and for the vast majority of Rubio supporters, Cruz was their second choice. So when you’re going to pick delegates, it just makes sense that we would work together,” said state Sen. Bart Hester, who backed Rubio.

In Iowa, Cruz won 11 of the 12 delegates assigned last weekend — meaning that he probably will have their support in later rounds of balloting. That same day in South Carolina, Cruz secured three of the six delegate slots assigned by two congressional districts that Trump had easily won.

“There’s nothing underhanded going on,” said Elliott Kelley, one of the Cruz supporters who won in South Carolina’s 3rd Congressional District. “Delegates are being appointed from the local level. The Trump team just doesn’t have people involved at the local level and they’re not getting delegates.”

Cruz supporters also won two of the three delegate slots from Virginia’s southernmost congressional district even though Trump won there handily. One of those Cruz supporters is Kyle Kilgore, 22, who said he would vote for Trump on the first ballot as required.

“I would have a hard time voting for Trump on the second ballot,” he said.

In Indiana, Dunn will be required to initially vote for whoever wins his congressional district in May. If Trump fails in the first round, Dunn said probably will vote for Ohio Gov. John Kasich on a second ballot.

“I’ll be looking for the candidate who I think has the best chance of beating Hillary Clinton in November,” Dunn said. “And if the person I want doesn’t get it, I won’t take my marbles and go home; I will support the nominee of the Republican Party.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/cruz-likely-to-block-trump-on-a-second-ballot-at-the-gop-convention/2016/04/13/6553e724-00bc-11e6-9d36-33d198ea26c5_story.html

[Dos Equis]

Crybaby Trump needs to read this:

MEMORANDUM
To:  Interested Parties
From:  Sean Spicer, RNC Chief Strategist and Communications Director @seanspicer
RE:  Delegate Allocation And Selection Rules
Date:  April 15, 2016

On October 1 of last year, 50 states, 5 territories, and the District of Columbia submitted finalized plans for how delegates would be chosen for the Republican National Convention. These plans were promptly circulated to all of the campaigns and the RNC held a briefing with over 100 members of the media in attendance laying out these plans the next day on October 2.
 
As a party, we believe in the freedom of the states to make decisions about how they will select delegates to the National Convention. And for decades, this grassroots-driven, democratic process has been transparent and effective.
 
This cycle is no different.
 
The rules surrounding the delegate selection have been clearly laid out in every state and territory and while each state is different, each process is easy to understand for those willing to learn it.
 
It ultimately falls on the campaigns to be up to speed on these delegate rules. Campaigns have to know when absentee ballots are due, how long early voting lasts in certain states, or the deadlines for voter registration; the delegate rules are no different.
 
Whether delegates are awarded through a primary, caucus, or convention, this process is democracy in action and driven by grassroots voters across the country.
 
The RNC is transparent about the rules and works with campaigns on a consistent basis to address any questions surrounding the process. As we head into the final contests in April, here is a rundown of those elections and how their delegates will be selected:
 
WYOMING (29 DELEGATES)
 
Delegates in Wyoming are elected at the grassroots level at the Wyoming State Party Convention. Campaigns can organize supporters to run as delegates and those candidates can be bound if they declare for a candidate.   
 
NEW YORK (95 DELEGATES)
 
On April 19, New York Republicans will go to the polls with 95 delegates at stake. Delegates are awarded by congressional district and on an at-large basis. If a candidate receives over 50 percent of the vote in a congressional district they win all three of the at-large delegates in that district. Only those candidates who receive more than 20 percent of the vote are eligible to receive delegates. The delegates bound by the primary vote will then be elected by their peers at grassroots congressional district meetings. The 11 at-large delegates to the National Convention are voted on by the Republican State Committee at their meeting on May 18.
 
APRIL 26th STATES (172 DELEGATES)
 
CONNECTICUT (28 DELEGATES)
 
Delegates are submitted as slates by the candidates and are awarded on an at-large and congressional district basis. At-large delegates are awarded proportionately for all candidates who receive over 20 percent of the vote with all at-large delegates awarded to a candidate if they break 50 percent. The plurality winner of the congressional district vote wins all three delegates from the district. Both the at-large and congressional are elected at the State Committee Meeting on April 26.
 
DELAWARE (16 DELEGATES)
 
Delegates are awarded on a winner-take-all basis and are voted on as a slate at the state convention on April 29.
 
MARYLAND (38 DELEGATES)
 
Three delegates for each candidate are elected directly on the ballot in each congressional district and at-large delegates are voted on individually at the State Central Committee meeting on May 14. Congressional district delegates are winner-take-all by district vote, at-large delegates are winner-take-all by statewide vote.
 
PENNSYLVANIA (71 DELEGATES)
 
Pennsylvania elects three delegates from each congressional district on the primary ballot and the State Committee elects 14 at-large delegates at their meeting on May 21. Congressional district delegates are submitted by campaigns, though are technically unbound. At-large delegates are winner-take-all based on the statewide vote.
 
RHODE ISLAND (19 DELEGATES)
 
Delegates are elected directly on the ballot in the primary election. Delegates are awarded proportionately on an at-large and congressional district basis with a 10 percent threshold.
 
For more information and facts about the convention, conventionfacts.gop addresses frequently asked questions about delegates, the rules, and how the process works.

[Dos Equis]

Ted Cruz: Nobody is getting to 1,237 delegates before the GOP convention
By David Sherfinski - The Washington Times
Wednesday, April 20, 2016

Sen. Ted Cruz on Wednesday said no candidate is going to reach the 1,237 delegates needed to clinch the Republican presidential nomination before the party’s convention in July, predicting that he and GOP front-runner Donald Trump are headed toward a battle at an open convention in Cleveland.

“We are headed to a contested convention,” Mr. Cruz said 1210 WPHT radio in Pennsylvania. “At this point, nobody is getting 1,237.”

“Donald is going to talk all the time about other folks not getting to 1,237. He’s not getting there, either. None of us are getting to 1,237,” Mr. Cruz said.

“And we’re going to go into Cleveland. I’m going to have a ton of delegates. Donald’s going to have a ton of delegates. And it is going to be a battle in Cleveland to see who can earn a majority of the delegates who have been elected by the people,” he said.

Mr. Trump was projected to win nearly all of the 95 GOP delegates in New York after his blowout win there Tuesday, which still gives the billionaire businessman a legitimate path to 1,237 before Cleveland.

But the results mean Mr. Cruz now has to think about swaying “unbound” delegates and those committed to other candidates on the first ballot.

Mr. Cruz acknowledged Mr. Trump had a “good night” on Tuesday.

“He won his home state — everyone expected him to win his home state,” he said. “Everyone knew he was going to.”

Mr. Cruz pointed out that prior to Tuesday, he had picked up wins in Wisconsin, Utah, North Dakota, Colorado and Wyoming.

“What happened was Donald Trump and all of his supporters and all of his media surrogates were very unhappy that he kept losing, and so they began screaming about voterless elections,” he said. “It’s a very bizarre concept, given that over 1.3 million people voted, and it’s all nonsense. It’s complete nonsense.”

In states like Colorado and Wyoming, Mr. Cruz picked up delegates that were decided through convention processes, rather than primaries or caucuses. Mr. Trump, in turn, blasted the delegate process as “rigged” after losing delegates to Mr. Cruz in those states.

“What is happening is we’re beating Donald Trump in election after election after election. He doesn’t like it. He doesn’t handle losing very well, and so he cries and he whines, but he also tries to distract,” he said.

Mr. Trump once again called the system “crooked” and “rigged” in his victory speech in New York Tuesday evening.

“We’re going to go back to the old way. It’s called you vote, and you win,” Mr. Trump said.

Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who was projected to pick up a few delegates in New York, had already been mathematically eliminated from reaching the 1,237 number before Cleveland.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/apr/20/ted-cruz-nobody-getting-1237-delegates-gop-convent/

[240 is Back]

GOP is gonna change the rules to give Kasich a chance. 

Such a pile of shit.  A reverse Ron Paul rule, to include a person who wins 2 outta 50+ contests lol. 

[Dos Equis]

Was talking to someone today who said there is a growing movement to ensure the convention rules do not bind delegates.  There was a call today or yesterday with about 1,000 participants.  Not sure how many are on board, but a fight is brewing. 

[240 is Back]

Was talking to someone today who said there is a growing movement to ensure the convention rules do not bind delegates.  There was a call today or yesterday with about 1,000 participants.  Not sure how many are on board, but a fight is brewing. 

It's gonna happen.   It's perfectly legal for the RNC to just change the rule, allowing delegates to vote for whoever they want.  A couple hundred Trump delegates will bail the moment they get permission.

Then it's wide open.  Paul Ryan?   Cruz?  Ben Affleck or Tom Brady?   LOL!   

Trump is intentionally underachieving so they'll bounce him - he won't fight that hard.