Covid 19 - We are all screwed - discuss

[Mayday]

IMO stock markets will go down 80 or 90 % and then they might close the markets.

It can't get that low because liquidity freezes everything before that point.

GFC got to 50% and platforms, banks, funds started to go into lockdown.

It's a safe bet Dow will tap 14k-16k and we will already read about liquidity freezes. It would be madness to allow it to keep going sub 10k.

[Moontrane]

This piece is very long, but check out one of the graphics:



Evidence over hysteria — COVID-19

After watching the outbreak of COVID-19 for the past two months, I’ve followed the pace of the infection,
its severity, and how our world is tackling the virus. While we should be concerned and diligent, the situation
has dramatically elevated to a mob-like fear spreading faster than COVID-19 itself. When 13% of Americans
believe they are currently infected with COVID-19 (mathematically impossible), full-on panic is blocking our
ability to think clearly and determine how to deploy our resources to stop this virus. Over three-fourths of
Americans are scared of what we are doing to our society through law and hysteria, not of infection or spreading
COVID-19 to those most vulnerable.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

[tommywishbone]

Cowards.

Disgusting cowards.

[friedchickendinner]

March 21 - just in one day people.

4610 new cases and 45 new deaths in the United States

2516 new cases and 16 new deaths in Germany

3925 new cases and 285 new deaths in Spain

1035 new cases and 56 new deaths in the United Kingdom

1847 new cases and 112 new deaths in France. 50% of the 1,525 patients currently in intensive care are under 60 years old

6557 new cases and 793 new deaths in Italy

637 new cases and 30 new deaths in the Netherlands

966 new cases and 123 new deaths in Iran

89 new cases in Thailand: the largest single-day rise in cases since the outbreak began in January. Most are related to a boxing match and various entertainment venues in Bangkok, while 6 are a group of Thais who traveled to Malaysia for a Mosque event

[tommywishbone]

Does anyone know anybody that knows any person that knows anyone that knows ANYONE any where who has died from this diabolical worldwide virus ?

[jr]

March 21 - just in one day people.

4610 new cases and 45 new deaths in the United States

Its 6,513 new cases and 60 deaths now in one day. USA moves into 3rd place behind Italy and China.

[Army of One]

Does anyone know anybody that knows any person that knows anyone that knows ANYONE any where who has died from this diabolical worldwide virus ?

Did anyone know anyone who died at Auschwitz 2 months in?ww2 2 months in?ww1?black plague?Spanish flu?I'm sure many knew at the end.

[Dave D]

Its 6,513 new cases and 60 deaths now in one day. USA moves into 3rd place behind Italy and China.

For the US this is people who are diagnosed that they required testing, correct?

There are many infected who are not tested and staying “self quarantined” as directed.

Did anyone know anyone who died at Auschwitz 2 months in?ww2 2 months in?ww1?black plague?Spanish flu?I'm sure many knew at the end.

Yes I do.

And Italian Lifter said he knows someone. It’s that easy to answer.

[Army of One]

For the US this is people who are diagnosed that they required testing, correct?

There are many infected who are not tested and staying “self quarantined” as directed.


Yes I do.

And Italian Lifter said he knows someone. It’s that easy to answer.

I'm sure people know people, but most don't right now.I fully expect that to be completely different within 8 weeks.Problem is you don't need alot of people to know someone with Covid19 to overwhelm hospitals.

[Army of One]

.

[Army of One]

Pulling further and further ahead of daily deaths from seasonal flu.What are all you naysayers going to say when it's the biggest killer in the world within the month?

[Dave D]

Pulling further and further ahead of daily deaths from seasonal flu.What are all you naysayers going to say when it's the biggest killer in the world within the month?

Lol dude come on. What we will say? It won’t matter. This virus has already shut down the world. Everyone is now suffering, kudos to you, YOU WERE RIGHT. So what? Are you completely isolated where you can avoid the public for the next several months? Even if you are you’ll eventually need to replenish supplies then what will you do?

What will you do remind us you knew this going to happen? What if you get the virus? What will you say? Will you tell us?

[FitnessFrenzy]

fear of looting is being mentioned more frequently:

[Teutonic Knight 1]

Nope, We are all NOT SCREWED, some of us a INTENTIONALLY stranded on a tropical island 

                                                     

[friedchickendinner]

Nope, We are all NOT SCREWED, some of us a INTENTIONALLY stranded on a tropical island 

                                                     

This you mean?

Thailand   599   +188 new cases in one day.

[Methyl m1ke]

Its 6,513 new cases and 60 deaths now in one day. USA moves into 3rd place behind Italy and China.

This was to be expected and presumably is simply the truer number of infected coming to the surface.

It will be interesting to see what happens in a couple weeks once the incubation period passes and we see the effect of this lockdown we are living through.

[jr]

This was to be expected and presumably is simply the truer number of infected coming to the surface.

It will be interesting to see what happens in a couple weeks once the incubation period passes and we see the effect of this lockdown we are living through.

China started their strict lockdown on Jan 23. Looks like it took nearly a month for active cases to peak on Feb 17 after lockdown start. Daily new cases peaked Feb 4 about 2 weeks after lockdown.

This is how one Chinese city stopped the infected from spreading:

They only had about 90 cases but they still did all this, I don't know if the US could do it on this level.

[Kwon]

Benefits of Corona

[GigantorX]

What's the hospitalization rate?

Age of those requiring hospitalization?
Co-morbidities?

That's what matters.

[Army of One]

What's the hospitalization rate?

Age of those requiring hospitalization?
Co-morbidities?

That's what matters.

Why?Full hospitals are full hospitals, the knock on effect of that is what matters.Also the amount of people with co-morbidities above 40 in the USA is huge.

[GigantorX]

Because it provides context and detail.

This virus isn't the bubonic plague coming to kill 50 million people. It's the fear and CYA that's pushing the panic and reactions of shutting everything down. Eventually, we'll have to leave our homes and venture back out into the world. Some will get sick, some won't some will be hospitalized many won't. Vast majority of those infected will go home, isolate and recover.

It has to run its course. Other wise it's just a cycle of "shelter in place" followed by "all clear" followed by "shelter in place...." Until people simply stop caring and break it themselves.

People will live, people will get sick and some may even die. Another day in the life of living in this planet.

[Army of One]

This virus isn't the bubonic plague coming to kill 50 million people.

Says who?Many estimates put it way above that if we can't contain it/find a vaccine.Look at the societal effects already, the panic, people not being able to get hold of types of food etc.When the icus and hospitals fill up with older people/people with co-morbidities, then anyone else who needs treatment for anything suffers, or just plain can't get treatment at all.Everyone focusing on the fact the young won't get hit hard so the world will be fine, really live in some kind of bubble where cause and effect doesn't exist.

[GigantorX]

Says who?Many estimates put it way above that if we can't contain it/find a vaccine.Look at the societal effects already, the panic, people not being able to get hold of types of food etc.When the icus and hospitals fill up with older people/people with co-morbidities, then anyone else who needs treatment for anything suffers, or just plain can't get treatment at all.Everyone focusing on the fact the young won't get hit hard so the world will be fine, really live in some kind of bubble where cause and effect doesn't exist.

I get it, I'm not being dismissive and I'm prepared for worst case.

But, you said it, "The Panic." That's the killer.

I've asked the question before....what if the Chinese were successful in hiding and covering this up and right here, right now in the USA we are just going on with life as we know it. No COVID-19 panic, no TP shortages etc. Would there be any headlines?

Again, hypothetical, but worth exploring.

[fredrollon]

Yes , it is ovewhelmingly the old and the already very sick and weak, who are dying from COVID-19.

For comparison, according to the CDC, during the 2009 H1N1 Swine Flu most of those who died were children and young adults.


"Americas especially hard hit by 2009 swine flu, study finds

A new look at the 2009 pandemic of H1N1 swine flu finds an unusual pattern — more people died in the Americas than in the rest of the world. What’s not clear is why.
      
The study, originally started to get a final estimate of global deaths from the H1N1 virus, shows about 200,000 people died. And it confirms most of them were young adults and children — just the opposite pattern from seasonal flu, which tends to kill people 65 and older.

..……….

It sounds like a mild year, but Simonsen says it wasn’t. “These are not deaths in age groups where you are expecting them,” she said. “These are deaths of young adults and children. It is different from seasonal influenza.” H1N1 killed 282 U.S. children in 2009-2010, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says.

CDC says H1N1 infected 61 million Americans during the pandemic and killed around 12,000. H1N1 is now part of the annual seasonal flu mix."

https://www.nbcnews.com/healthmain/americas-especially-hard-hit-2009-swine-flu-study-finds-2D11657478

[Army of One]

I get it, I'm not being dismissive and I'm prepared for worst case.

But, you said it, "The Panic." That's the killer.

I've asked the question before....what if the Chinese were successful in hiding and covering this up and right here, right now in the USA we are just going on with life as we know it. No COVID-19 panic, no TP shortages etc. Would there be any headlines?

Again, hypothetical, but worth exploring.

We are human, we panic.One person buys a bit extra to store, the next person sees them buying extra so they do it too, the church goer after who believes in sharing comes along and sees only 2 items left, so buys 1 extra for his neighbor and clears the shelf, the next person sees the empty shelf, panics and buys double what they normally buy from the next shelf etc etc.Everything has a knock on effect,which leads to more panic.Until we find a way to raise our IQs and blunt our emotions, this will always happen.The problem coming in the next month, which wont matter if we panic or not, is the hospitals and icus will all be full.Then it won't matter if you are old or young, your chances of survival from anything drastically decrease.Even if the Chinese hid it at that point, can you imagine getting the news suddenly that every hospital was turning away patients and they were dying in the street/at home?Would be way worse.