Energy and reduction of consumption how China and Russia is crushed

[Thin Lizzy]

It already started…..lol

On Tuesday’s broadcast of MSNBC’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) reacted to President Joe Biden’s ban on U.S. imports of Russian oil and gas by stating that Congress should monitor the profits of oil companies and “profit margins should not go up. That’s just oil companies gouging when they do that. So, we’re going to be on them on this.”

I know a good bit of crude oil traders, they don’t like over $100, starts getting political. I’m sure drilling companies think different but seems to me that the ones that have some of government leases don’t even use them because of all the restrictions.

Of all the idiotic Government interventions, price controls is at the top.

[Mayday]

It’ll keep going higher, but won’t be allowed to be a new normal because average citizens will demand “accountability” and caps on prices then you’ll have some type of government intervention.  Politicians have constituents they still need to pander to. This is going to hurt a lot of people for awhile, especially since US just scuttled Russian oil.

If this is a “new normal” then we are really witnessing a green reset. If the green push has brought us to this point and governments tell people it’s the new normal and there isn’t even green infrastructure set up to generate energy needs of today, then it’s a race to the bottom for humanity.

You are witnessing economic war with an outcome of massively reduced Consumption and mobility with green energy if this thread is going to be proven to be true.

We know US oil loves $100 and up and Biden can ramp US drilling then ban exports in order to control US domestic price. That is the US solution to domestic oil consumption So we wait and see at what price does he step in.

To hurt Russia they need sky high energy prices AND the war to continue in order to pursue further sanctions driving energy even higher. They need high commodity prices in order to reduce consumption enough that it reduces production in China to hurt them economically.

I said from the start in 2020, buy your wants back then because over time the odds are we run out of things and they never come back or you simply won’t be able to afford them anymore. I am 300k ahead in 18mths on purchases so I walk my talk here, this isn’t baseless throwaway statements.

[Mayday]

DXY continues to show sell off happening. Previous high target of 1.03.

Everyone so scared of missing out they are dip buying constantly. Safest IMO is to wait for a bottom and then go.

My strategy was mentioned in another thread —> Q2 eats shit, Q3 Rocky, Q4 stimmy handouts

You buy in after the bottom is done and then stimmy money will be handed out to assist with food and fuel towards the end of year. Stimmy will flow into shares and crypto just like 2020-2021 and we see 2023 rip.

[Mayday]

US Feb CPI print @ 7.9% up from 7.5% and the Whitehouse message is it’s Putin’s fault lol.

Social media platforms are shutting off hate speech filters to allow calls of violence against Russians and Putin. Again, keeping people distracted with division and pushing hatred and violence to occupy the plebs.

Meanwhile here we just had calls surfacing to reinstate masking mandates and working from home immediately. New covid variant is going to kill us…..again…..  govt held off so far but lockdown type scenario likely coming.


Per my opening post, this is rinse and repeat with deflationary event followed by inflationary policy which is designed to rip the guts out of consumer demand and break the global supply chain. You will get your 2% CPI and you will be happy……


**edit - again to emphasise buy your electric shit now. Electric garden, electric scooters, electric bikes, whatever it is.

[Mayday]

Media is pushing China covid lockdowns….. is that even real? This covid strain supposed to be worse yet that isn’t how viruses work. using even basic data we know covid has become LESS lethal with each season.

Then media reporting Russia has asked China to support their declaration of war……

And just like magic we see China become drawn into the Russia conflict and an enemy of the West.


Just remember, cloud services and most internet is based in China and I mentioned last year to prepare to cyber attacks and cloud/app outages as China begins to come into play.

[OneMoreRep]

Just remember, cloud services and most internet is based in China and I mentioned last year to prepare to cyber attacks and cloud/app outages as China begins to come into play.

Just to play devil's advocate for a moment.

There are a lot of moving parts at the present time.

There's talk about the advent of a new global economic system, some are speculating it could be a decoupling from the US dollar as the world reserve currency given that FIAT is losing fanfare worldwide and nations are wondering why they should continue to place their faith on the US government. Piggybacking off that are talks about recoupling currencies back to the gold standard, some are calling this the proverbial Bretton Woods 3 where we restore convertibility of the US dollar to gold for restored faith. There's a lot of backroom talk about this phenomenon given the strange comments made by Jerome Powell regarding the potential for there to be more than a single reserve currency, not to mention the numerous nations (Russia and China to say the least) that are tired of the USA.

There is also mention of a possible black swan event, something of a cyber attack. We have been warned by numerous talking heads within the government and MSM. Although I am not certain as to the how behind it, speculation is leaning towards a possible electromagnetic pulse that knocks out all internet capabilities world wide and could resort in a wipe out of all financial information and assets held digitally in banks.

Again, there is a lot going on at the present moment. Some would say it's become quite overwhelming in trying to keep up with all the moving parts. I wish I could make a simple crumb trail of bullet points to highlight what things are looking/sounding most probable and what best approaches to take to better prepare ourselves, but I am slowly just starting to put the pieces to this puzzle together and it looks grim.

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[WalterWhite]

Over 5M views.  Sums things up pretty well.

UFC fighter clip in this is GOLD.

[youandme]

Media is pushing China covid lockdowns….. is that even real? This covid strain supposed to be worse yet that isn’t how viruses work. using even basic data we know covid has become LESS lethal with each season.

Then media reporting Russia has asked China to support their declaration of war……

And just like magic we see China become drawn into the Russia conflict and an enemy of the West.


Just remember, cloud services and most internet is based in China and I mentioned last year to prepare to cyber attacks and cloud/app outages as China begins to come into play.

Pfizer pushing fourth jab today. Citing absolute necessity since Korea and China are back on lockdowns.

I think you’re right on cloud services this year will be a major crash/outage that’ll bring down several companies.

Biden admitted during the caucus address last week that with these new high energy prices, companies should focus on new technology so the push for green is what he said he is telling companies to push for. This is going to crush families.

[Mayday]

Just to play devil's advocate for a moment.

There are a lot of moving parts at the present time.

"1"

This is why I playfully give 120 IQ a hard time.

There are lots of moving parts which you cannot quantify. Why pretend you can? I can’t and I don’t (I say this nicely btw).

Black swan is overused. We are in a deflationary phase since December, events happen as a result.

Ok so we get a new currency in a decade’s time…… this was clear as day to me 2yrs ago so what did you do? The fear you need to have is what if your debt today is transferred in real terms To a new currency? Nobody thinking about that one!

Pfizer pushing fourth jab today. Citing absolute necessity since Korea and China are back on lockdowns.

I think you’re right on cloud services this year will be a major crash/outage that’ll bring down several companies.

Biden admitted during the caucus address last week that with these new high energy prices, companies should focus on new technology so the push for green is what he said he is telling companies to push for. This is going to crush families.

I posted my numbers in another thread which was the risk calculation on covid. Basically the 3rd wave which everyone got whilst walking around was the same odds of dying as the first one with everybody locked up. The 4th wave will be less deadly but media pushing we all gunna die.

Green energy is good. I like it. I run my 60L fridge 24x7 in my Ute (pickup) filled with drinks powered by a solar panel. Issa good!

[Thin Lizzy]

Looks like traders and hedge funds piled into oil and got worked. They deserve it. It’s a stupid strategy to try to chase returns at a time like this. Instead of thinking about how to make money your top priority should be how to not lose it. Cash is the place to be.

[OneMoreRep]

Ok so we get a new currency in a decade’s time…… this was clear as day to me 2yrs ago so what did you do? The fear you need to have is what if your debt today is transferred in real terms To a new currency? Nobody thinking about that one!

I've thought about that. Actually, I read about that back in 2016. Here, take a look: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/11/8-predictions-for-the-world-in-2030/

Excerpts: “I don't own anything. I don't own a car. I don't own a house. I don't own any appliances or any clothes” "Shopping is a distant memory in the city of 2030, whose inhabitants have cracked clean energy and borrow what they need on demand"

If you don't own anything and simply borrow whatever you need, the idea of debt is wiped out. That is their agenda's Utopian setting.

This seems like what the future will certainly look like. Look at their leadership (a real who's who with everything from royalty, former White House Vice Presidents, BlackRock CEO, UN reps etc): https://www.weforum.org/about/leadership-and-governance

Something like this could play out within 5-10 years. In the meantime, there will probably be a transitional phase where paper currency gets replaced by solely digital currency (imagine just using a debit card everywhere you go - pretty practical since most people already do). After digital currency is what solely exists, maybe a truly centralized CBDC (worldwide currency) becomes established and all privacy rights go out the window (ie brings in complete control with your whereabouts being monitored at all times, think China but worldwide). Then we graduate to the WEF Utopian view described in the link above.

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[Humble Narcissist]

I've thought about that. Actually, I read about that back in 2016. Here, take a look: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/11/8-predictions-for-the-world-in-2030/

Excerpts: “I don't own anything. I don't own a car. I don't own a house. I don't own any appliances or any clothes” "Shopping is a distant memory in the city of 2030, whose inhabitants have cracked clean energy and borrow what they need on demand"

If you don't own anything and simply borrow whatever you need, the idea of debt is wiped out. That is their agenda's Utopian setting.

This seems like what the future will certainly look like. Look at their leadership (a real who's who with everything from royalty, former White House Vice Presidents, BlackRock CEO, UN reps etc): https://www.weforum.org/about/leadership-and-governance

Something like this could play out within 5-10 years. In the meantime, there will probably be a transitional phase where paper currency gets replaced by solely digital currency (imagine just using a debit card everywhere you go - pretty practical since most people already do). After digital currency is what solely exists, maybe a truly centralized CBDC (worldwide currency) becomes established and all privacy rights go out the window (ie brings in complete control with your whereabouts being monitored at all times, think China but worldwide). Then we graduate to the WEF Utopian view described in the link above.

"1"

This would also wipe out the underground economy.

[OneMoreRep]

This would also wipe out the underground economy.

Indeed.

Total police state with heavily fascist principles.

"1"

[Mayday]

Looks like traders and hedge funds piled into oil and got worked. They deserve it. It’s a stupid strategy to try to chase returns at a time like this. Instead of thinking about how to make money your top priority should be how to not lose it. Cash is the place to be.

Everything getting hit today as people are scared of the Fed.

Buy the dip everybody cos we gunna rally hard from 7.9% CPI……

[Super Natural]

If you’ve studied history, you might know how this is going to end...
Not well for the Ukrainians, not well for the Russians, and certainly not well for the West.

"Does anyone think that persecuting oligarchs will force Putin to turn his tanks around?

The same applies to sanctions. It is pure magical thinking to imagine that sanctions, which have never worked with any country in the past, will have cast some kind of spell over Russia and make it desist. No media presenter ever asks the politicians to explain the precise mechanism by which this alchemy is to be accomplished, just as they never asked how lockdowns or masks worked in the face of all evidence. Neither do we hear anybody ask if the politicians and sages seriously think Russian soldiers will ever leave Ukraine while sanctions remain in place.

Myths need heroes as well as villains. Cue the Vaccines, the Holy Trinity of Pfizer, Astra Zeneca and Moderna, recently joined by NATO as heroes of the hour.

Vaccines, like baptism, used to be a rite of passage for children when I was growing up. Now in these infantilised times they are a rite of passage for adults. Alongside the use of face diapers.

NATO, the Sword in Horsemen of the Apocalypse terms, was not long ago seen by the Presidents of the United States and France no less than an example of the living dead. Now it has cranked up out of its coffin, been given a booster shot and is miraculously revived.

Pulling all these elements together, what we have here with the present war fever is a form of the millennialism which has been emerging and shape-shifting in various guises for over thirty years. Diagnosing the hysteria and showing by what threads its various strands are joined is a useful first step to overcoming it.

By the way, the Horseman of The Apocalypse yet to make an appearance is Famine. Have you checked forward prices for grain?"

***
Author Peter Ford is a global affair analyst and former British Ambassador to Syria (2003-2006) and Bahrain (1999-2002).

[Gym-Rat]

[Humble Narcissist]

Indeed.

Total police state with heavily fascist principles.

"1"

We will have a social credit system like China.

[Thin Lizzy]

Everything getting hit today as people are scared of the Fed.

Buy the dip everybody cos we gunna rally hard from 7.9% CPI……

When you see this it typically means there aren’t going to be any relief rallies.


Stock Market Outlook: Sell Any Relief Rally As Risks Converge, MS Says

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-risks-bear-market-fed-oil-ukraine-russia-2022-3

[Mayday]

3 options:

1) no rate rise —> green light for stocks and inflationary trade. Kicks the can down the road waiting for the market to eventually sort itself out.

2) 0.25% rate rise —> market says they priced it in. Stock bounce. Consumer demand takes a hit due to increase mortgage costs, reduction in consumer demand immediately.

3) 0.5% rate rise —> my preferred outcome. Rips the faces off everything. Stock dump. Crypto dumps. Demand get the guts ripped out immediately and we see inflation immediately improve.

The ideal scenario is number 3 because it means CPI get under control quicker and proves the Fed are serious about the 2%. My strategy assumes the Fed are serious about CPI reduction prior to beginning the next inflationary phase. This also means the ‘deflationary event’ is the rate rise which means nuclear war won’t be (using universal assumptions).

Following universal law that a deflationary event will happen, if a rate rise isn’t it then it becomes replaced by another event. Nukes. Covid lockdown. Cyber attack. We don’t want those.

[OneMoreRep]

3 options:

1) no rate rise —> green light for stocks and inflationary trade. Kicks the can down the road waiting for the market to eventually sort itself out.

2) 0.25% rate rise —> market says they priced it in. Stock bounce. Consumer demand takes a hit due to increase mortgage costs, reduction in consumer demand immediately.

3) 0.5% rate rise —> my preferred outcome. Rips the faces off everything. Stock dump. Crypto dumps. Demand get the guts ripped out immediately and we see inflation immediately improve.

The ideal scenario is number 3 because it means CPI get under control quicker and proves the Fed are serious about the 2%. My strategy assumes the Fed are serious about CPI reduction prior to beginning the next inflationary phase. This also means the ‘deflationary event’ is the rate rise which means nuclear war won’t be (using universal assumptions).

Following universal law that a deflationary event will happen, if a rate rise isn’t it then it becomes replaced by another event. Nukes. Covid lockdown. Cyber attack. We don’t want those.

Isn't the word around Wall Street that Powell is only going to raise it by 0.25% tomorrow? Supposedly, if inflation continues to worsen, the goal is to push rates up by 0.25%-0.50% in May. 

0.50% is good, but I think he should go straight for the neck and increase it by 1%. This nonsense has gone on for long enough and I think it will only get worse.

"1"

[Mayday]

Isn't the word around Wall Street that Powell is only going to raise it by 0.25% tomorrow? Supposedly, if inflation continues to worsen, the goal is to push rates up by 0.25%-0.50% in May. 

0.50% is good, but I think he should go straight for the neck and increase it by 1%. This nonsense has gone on for long enough and I think it will only get worse.

"1"

Yeah pretty much 0.25% was said to be in the bag back in Jan from memory.

But 7.9% is pretty insane. In the older 80s metric we’d be somewhere in the 16% range which is an all time high for the USD.

The Fed probably has 1-2 shots to raise rates and that’s all. Raise hard early and you stop it quick while also providing runway to back out. Most of the time central banks are applying brakes into a recession because they misjudge the lag. We already have data showing the shit it hitting the fan so you want to hit the brakes now, not in 3 months time when the data is worse because you’ll make it worse. Plus a 0.5% now is likely all you’ll need.

[Thin Lizzy]

Media was attributing the sell off in Chinese tech stocks to Ukraine. They’ve been dropping for a year!


Now, we’re seeing a short squeeze but that won’t help long term investors who bought near the top:

[Gym-Rat]

.

[Mayday]

0.25% and everything flips green to rally.

Going long bullish into a global recession and deflationary period shows the level of degenerate gambling going on.

A 0.5% rate hike in June is now the highest odds. NDQ fell 22% to price in a 0.25% hike and now has 3 months to price in a 0.5% hike and people are euphoric on Twitter claiming the Fed can’t fight inflation.

Wrecked plebs.

[Gym-Rat]

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