New Hampshire could be a big win for Bloomberg
The Hill ^ | 02/11/20 11:00 AM EST | Liz Peek
Posted on 2/11/2020, 12:10:58 PM by Zhang Fei
For all the breathless coverage, the New Hampshire Democratic primary is truly dinky — awarding only 24 pledged delegates, one percent of the 1,990 needed to win. That is even fewer than Iowa. It’s barely worth fighting for, except that, especially in the wake of the Iowa fiasco, New Hampshire will punch above its weight.
The first four contests, including Nevada, will award a total of 155 pledged delegates. If the candidates perform as predicted by today’s polls, Sanders will lead on the cusp of Super Tuesday with 34 delegates, followed by Biden (33), Buttigieg (25) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) (20). Activist Tom Steyer could pick up 10 delegates in South Carolina, where he has talked up policies like reparations that are particularly popular with black voters. Klobuchar could nab a few along the way.
It is important to remember that the March 3 contests dwarf the haul from the four early states. On Super Tuesday Democratic candidates, including, for the first time, Mike Bloomberg, will compete for 1,345 pledged delegates. The biggest states up for grabs are California, with 416 delegates, Texas, with 228, and North Carolina, with 110.
In California today, Sanders and Biden both have over 20 percent of the vote, with Bloomberg far behind at only 4 percent. But, with 800 staffers in the state, his huge ad spend, and his growing list of endorsements from more than 50 party officials in the state, Bloomberg is gaining ground fast. In Texas, he is only at 7 percent, but is quickly opening a slew of offices and, as in California, racking up endorsements. Biden and Sanders lead in North Carolina, where Bloomberg is beginning to run ads; one recent poll gave him 14 percent of the vote.
Don’t underestimate the power of limitless money.
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