So what makes you think you're right and Schoen is wrong? How many campaigns have you worked on? Are you a professional political strategist?
just to be clear, "professional political strategists" are often wrong
I think poll questions like this are meaningless, especially 12 months out
Regardless of whether someone thinks Obama deserves a second term they will still have to make a value judgement between Obama and whatever loser get's the GOP nomination (RP excepted - I don't think he's a loser but he has no chance).
People may not think Obama "deserves" a second term but they give him one anyway because he's the least repugnant choice
It's going to be no more complicated a choice than that.